With so much talk of maybe the Giants trading up to draft a QB, I thought I would look back at the track-record of how teams did when they traded into the top 5 to draft a QB. The results are pretty shocking and show it rarely, if ever, works out. Perhaps it's all the draft capital, and players lost. Perhaps teams don't trade away good QB prospects. Whatever the reason since 2000 there was maybe one true trade up (not counting Eli's special case) where it seemed to have worked out and that was many years ago with Michael Vick.
Team - Quarterback - Pick - Draft Year
Panthers- Bryce Young-1- 2023
49ers- Trey Lance- 3- 2021
Jets- Sam Darnold- 3- 2018
Bears- Mitch Trubisky- 3- 2017
Rams- Jared Goff- 1- 2016
Eagles- Carson Wentz- 2- 2016
Commanders- RG3- 2- 2012
Jets- Mark Sanchez- 5- 2009
Giants- Eli Manning- 1- 2004 (note: was already in the top 5 and actually drafted Philip Rivers)
Falcons- Michael Vick- 1 – 2001
Rich: Stop citing the facts and allow the boards to get back to "normal." lol
Quote from: Bob In PA on January 30, 2024, 12:33:22 PMRich: Stop citing the facts and get back to "normal." lol
Bob,
When I go on my data adventures, I never know where it will lead me. This one truly shocked me.
It seems so much worse when someone drafted later became a much better QB.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on January 30, 2024, 12:50:57 PMIt seems so much worse when someone drafted later became a much better QB.
I think it's fair to expect one of the top three to underperform and one of the other QBs to prove he is the real deal. The trick is figuring out which ones.
That just means if the Giants end up doing that, the odds are real good it will be a winner. After all, they won doing it 20 years ago (though not technically). Funny meaningless stat though.
Quote from: katkavage on January 30, 2024, 01:38:51 PMThat just means if the Giants end up doing that, the odds are real good it will be a winner. After all, they won doing it 20 years ago (though not technically). Funny meaningless stat though.
:what:
:laugh: Someone has to defy the odds and get it right. Where's Ernie Accorsi when we need him???
could those SB teams have won the Lombardi with Rivers as qb? or, as many postulated then - by trading back or waiting to draft big Ben rather than trade up. Glad things worked as they did for Eli and the Giants, but we did give the ranch to make that trade.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/
I'd be all on board for this trade
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 30, 2024, 10:08:55 PMhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/
I'd be all on board for this trade
To me, Caleb Williams is a boom-or-bust type of prospect. I see solid possibilities that he crashes and burns. For all his supposed talent, he wasn't the most productive QB in this draft class, even accounting for talent levels.
Plus, a smart man learns from his mistakes; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 30, 2024, 10:08:55 PMhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/
I'd be all on board for this trade
Ugh. 2 1sts and 2 2nds for a guy with a 50-50 chance to succeed? On a team with the worst supporting cast in the league and numerous holes? No thanks.
The track record of drafting QBs at all that high is really poor. It's only logical that the track record of trading up to get those guys would be awful as well. There's also a huge difference between trading up to get a guy because you otherwise wouldn't get a top QB and trading up to get a guy who you think is better than somebody else you could have gotten. As someone else mentioned, would the Giants have been better, worse or the same if they had just sat back and taken Rivers or Ben instead of trading up for Eli? That's a whole other level of gamble than, say, the Giants trading up from 6 to 1 this year because they wouldn't otherwise have a shot at the elite QB prospects.
Quote from: MightyGiants on January 31, 2024, 08:36:34 AMTo me, Caleb Williams is a boom-or-bust type of prospect. I see solid possibilities that he crashes and burns. For all his supposed talent, he wasn't the most productive QB in this draft class, even accounting for talent levels.
Plus, a smart man learns from his mistakes; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.
I was more referring to the trade up not necessarily the Qb. I'd take Daniels over Williams and Maye.
Quote from: Stringer Bell on January 31, 2024, 10:52:53 AMUgh. 2 1sts and 2 2nds for a guy with a 50-50 chance to succeed? On a team with the worst supporting cast in the league and numerous holes? No thanks.
It's the worst supporting cast only between have the worst Qb play.
Top 5 RB
Top 5 TE
Top 15 wr
Two burners behind that wr
Not the worst supporting cast, the worst qb play in the league which we need to cchange or we won't ever get better.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 02:09:49 PMI was more referring to the trade up not necessarily the Qb. I'd take Daniels over Williams and Maye.
I was all for drafting a QB because he was available. Thanks to those meaningless late-season wins, likely the only way they get one of the 3 elite QBs is to give up a king's ransom (assuming a team would even trade), and as history shows, those trades don't go well. Sadly, the QBs at the Senior Bowl didn't step up. So it looks like there may not be a way for the Giants to acquire a franchise QB in the draft.
As much as I want a QB of the future i dont like the idea of trading high draft including future one for the possibility of getting a Trubisky in return... makes me nervous
https://x.com/dpbrugler/status/1752776154589614550?s=20
https://x.com/JoeGoodberry/status/1752776145282514993?s=20
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 02:12:09 PMIt's the worst supporting cast only between have the worst Qb play.
Top 5 RB
Top 5 TE
Top 15 wr
Two burners behind that wr
Not the worst supporting cast, the worst qb play in the league which we need to cchange or we won't ever get better.
None of those things are accurate. Barkley is nowhere close to being a top 5 RB any longer. Not even top 10. And it has nothing to do with QB play.
Waller a top 5 TE? Laughable. He's not in the same stratosphere as Kittle, Hock, Kelce, Laporta, Andrews. And he's not even in the second tier with Njoku, Engram, McBride. Hell, Tyler Conklin suffered through some of the worst QB play in history and still put up more catches and yards than Waller.
The idea this team is loaded with talent and everything is DJ's fault is a joke.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 02:12:09 PMIt's the worst supporting cast only between have the worst Qb play.
Top 5 RB
Top 5 TE
Top 15 wr
Two burners behind that wr
Not the worst supporting cast, the worst qb play in the league which we need to cchange or we won't ever get better.
What metric are you using for those rankings?
Quote from: Stringer Bell on January 31, 2024, 03:21:20 PMNone of those things are accurate. Barkley is nowhere close to being a top 5 RB any longer. Not even top 10. And it has nothing to do with QB play.
Waller a top 5 TE? Laughable. He's not in the same stratosphere as Kittle, Hock, Kelce, Laporta, Andrews. And he's not even in the second tier with Njoku, Engram, McBride. Hell, Tyler Conklin suffered through some of the worst QB play in history and still put up more catches and yards than Waller.
The idea this team is loaded with talent and everything is DJ's fault is a joke.
When we traded for Waller this board and the media unanimously praised the move as us getting a top 5 TE... So now he's not? He can't be both a top 5 TE and a horrible one at the same time. Or was he just elite with Derek Carr..
Barkley led the league in almost every major stat for 3/4ths of 2022, so one year later he's not even in the top 10?
All I was saying is that the skills aren't that bad, you don't think Barkley would have produced more if we had a Qb that actually got that ball to Wrs? You don't think Waller would have not been more successful if he had a QB to target him? It's naive to think that all our skills wouldn't be significantly better under a better Qb.
I didn't say loaded, but you acted like it was the bottom of the barrel which it isn't. I also didn't mention Jones, you did. I was talking about the skills as a whole.
I mean look at the jump in the skills production from Jones/Devito to Taylor, to not think a QB1 wouldn't do wonders for what we have currently is well...
Quote from: MightyGiants on January 31, 2024, 03:22:38 PMWhat metric are you using for those rankings?
Waller was lauded by this whole board in the offseason as a top 5 TE and Barkley was the best back in football for most of 2022. With how volatile the offense as a whole was this season I was basing that off of 2022, and even if you think they have regressed in 2023 we still don't have the worst skills in the league.
Most ranking services have us 18-20 skill group wise and I would say that is accurate. Not elite, or maybe even great, but not horrible either.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 05:44:53 PMWaller was lauded by this whole board in the offseason as a top 5 TE and Barkley was the best back in football for most of 2022. With how volatile the offense as a whole was this season I was basing that off of 2022, and even if you think they have regressed in 2023 we still don't have the worst skills in the league.
Most ranking services have us 18-20 skill group wise and I would say that is accurate. Not elite, or maybe even great, but not horrible either.
Waller was hurt before the opening game and was never the same in the few games he played
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 05:42:02 PMWhen we traded for Waller this board and the media unanimously praised the move as us getting a top 5 TE... So now he's not? He can't be both a top 5 TE and a horrible one at the same time. Or was he just elite with Derek Carr..
So you're saying Waller is better than one of Kittle, Hock, Kelce, Laporta, or Andrews? I don't see how anyone could possibly argue that. Again, it's not even close.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 31, 2024, 05:42:02 PMI didn't say loaded, but you acted like it was the bottom of the barrel which it isn't. I also didn't mention Jones, you did. I was talking about the skills as a whole.
They were literally ranked as dead last in the league. I'd say that's bottom of the barrel.