In terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).
Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?
Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter? I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB. How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".
Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?
My only thing with Dart wasnt he a second round level QB up until very recently ? I know this almost always happens
But man if it isn't Ward or Sanders and we use such high a pick on Dart when other talent is there that will sting.
I am down for trading back and getting more picks to get him. But if not one of the top QB's I personally want Graham then Abdul Carter
Quote from: killarich on March 13, 2025, 08:57:25 AMMy only thing with Dart wasnt he a second round level QB up until very recently ? I know this almost always happens
But man if it isn't Ward or Sanders and we use such high a pick on Dart when other talent is there that will sting.
I am down for trading back and getting more picks to get him. But if not one of the top QB's I personally want Graham then Abdul Carter
Last year, right up until the draft people were telling use Bo Nix and Penix would be round two QBs. Hell, the Raiders were blindsided when the Falcons took Penix before pick 12 because they were certain that Penix would be available to them with the 12th pick.
When you consider Nix, not only was he drafted much higher than the so-called draft experts predicted, he was in the running for rookie of the year.
What would the Bronco's fortunes be today if they decided the 12th pick was too high to draft Bo Nix?
Quote"With five quarterbacks already off the board, the Denver Broncos chose not to risk losing their guy. But they pulled the trigger on a second-round quarterback with the 12th overall pick.
"At the very least, Nix is a better value than Michael Penix Jr., whom the Atlanta Falcons took at No. 8 overall. He also should be a good fit in Sean Payton's offense. However, this was a massive reach." -- Brent Sobleski
https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2024/04/26/nfl-draft-experts-give-broncos-harsh-grades-for-bo-nix-pick/79055373007/
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 08:53:32 AMIn terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).
Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?
Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter? I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB. How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".
Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?
Rich: I was prepared to disagree, but if you didn't convince me, you came really close. Nice post. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on March 13, 2025, 09:40:31 AMRich: I was prepared to disagree, but if you didn't convince me, you came really close. Nice post. Bob
Ditto for me. Interesting thread.
Very
To be fair, we've only seen one season of Nix less than half a season of Penix. I'm not sure that we can conclude that either are a lock as long term starters at this point. It's possible that they are but I believe we'll know more this year.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 08:53:32 AMIn terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).
Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?
Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter? I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB. How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".
Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?
I don't know the answers, but I think you're asking the right questions.
This was the same dilemma with Jones, " he was drafted too early". It looked like a decent call his rookie season. Unfortunately he never worked out. The Giants are desperate. If Dart is picked at 3 and plays average QB ball by year 2, it's all good.
I'm sorry, but am I the only one with a nervous/anxious twitch reading this? This is almost exactly the conversation we had around drafting Daniel Jones at 6.
While I completely agree with you, Rich, in premise- I can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices. I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right? Just because a team believes in a QB and pulls the trigger unfortunately does not minimize the real gamble that team is taking with the pick. As we have seen painfully play out over the last 5 years.
I'm afraid I'm on the side of- pick a QB that high that deserves it or don't pick a QB at all.
In the last 10 years, have more 1st round QBs become franchise guys or do more 2-4th round guys become franchise QBs?
@gregf and
@PSUBeirut The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 13, 2025, 10:03:11 AMI can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices. I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right
That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?
I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?
I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 10:11:18 AM@gregf and @PSUBeirut
The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).
That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?
I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?
I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?
The worst thing for Jones was dopey McAdoo being bigger than the show when he decided to kill Eli iron man streak with the kid. It was unnecessary and only added pressure. Had Jones sat a few more games at least (maybe even until the end of the season it would've served him and the Giants so much better.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 10:11:18 AM@gregf and @PSUBeirut
I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?
Exactly!!!!!!!
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 09:05:06 AMLast year, right up until the draft people were telling use Bo Nix and Penix would be round two QBs. Hell, the Raiders were blindsided when the Falcons took Penix before pick 12 because they were certain that Penix would be available to them with the 12th pick.
When you consider Nix, not only was he drafted much higher than the so-called draft experts predicted, he was in the running for rookie of the year.
What would the Bronco's fortunes be today if they decided the 12th pick was too high to draft Bo Nix?
https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2024/04/26/nfl-draft-experts-give-broncos-harsh-grades-for-bo-nix-pick/79055373007/
This is why I take what the "experts" say with a grain of salt. It's just another person's opinion.
At the end of the day, if the team picking values that person at that position, that's all that matters. People can poo-poo on it all they want... beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
If Schoen goes with Dart at three, good for him. But, regardless of who is picked at #3, he better be good.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 08:53:32 AMIn terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).
Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?
Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter? I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB. How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".
Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?
The only way to know if you overpay for something is to know what others would pay for it. If every other team would not draft Dart until the 2nd round and you drafted at 3 you overpaid regardless of how good he becomes because theoretically you could have positioned yourself at end of first round to get him.
Quote from: Philosophers on March 13, 2025, 10:43:02 AMThe only way to know if you overpay for something is to know what others would pay for it. If every other team would not draft Dart until the 2nd round and you drafted at 3 you overpaid regardless of how good he becomes because theoretically you could have positioned yourself at end of first round to get him.
The problem is there is no way of knowing what other teams will pay. There are 31 other teams and at least a third of them need a QB or could use a QB upgrade and it takes only one to mess up the plan.
Things would be easier if the Giants currently had a solid QB option. Then you can gamble and try and maximize value. When you are in the situation the Giants are in, missing out on a franchise QB,l by having another team jump you, could be devastating (at least for Schoen and Daboll and at the 2025 season).
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 13, 2025, 10:03:11 AMI'm sorry, but am I the only one with a nervous/anxious twitch reading this? This is almost exactly the conversation we had around drafting Daniel Jones at 6.
While I completely agree with you, Rich, in premise- I can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices. I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right? Just because a team believes in a QB and pulls the trigger unfortunately does not minimize the real gamble that team is taking with the pick. As we have seen painfully play out over the last 5 years.
I'm afraid I'm on the side of- pick a QB that high that deserves it or don't pick a QB at all.
PSU (and
@MightyGiants): I can completely identify with your (PSU's) overall reaction. That is mine, too.
The problem with Jones was not that he was picked too high... the problem was the list of other QB's who were ALSO AVAILABLE TO BE DRAFTED when the Giants picked Jones.
When you jump outside-the-box, you must be certain not only about the guy you pick, but reasonably sure there isn't a better choice.
You have confidence in your pick, but it has to be the result of a complete review of all QB's and a conclusion that they guy you're taking outside-the-box is at least as good a prospect as the guys you're not taking.
As
@Ed Vette and I have discussed, I don't believe the Giants cared who else was available... all to their detriment and years of disappointment for us fans. I can't PROVE this is what actually occurred but I'm reasonably sure, based on examination of mostly recent history.
Bob
PS. The possible difference this year is that it would be IMO perfectly reasonable for the Giants to take Dart, because IMO it would be a lot more reasonable to pass up Ward and Sanders... compared to the choices that were available the year they drafted Jones. And as Ed knows, the move of taking Dart at Pick Three would not surprise me in the least... in the sense I make this remark, it's simply an "instant replay" of the Jones situation (although if they do it this year I'm also going to favor it since I don't like Ward or Sanders enough in any event).
Quote from: Trench on March 13, 2025, 10:16:39 AMThe worst thing for Jones was dopey McAdoo being bigger than the show when he decided to kill Eli iron man streak with the kid. It was unnecessary and only added pressure. Had Jones sat a few more games at least (maybe even until the end of the season it would've served him and the Giants so much better.
He didn't. Eli was benched for Geno Smith.
Quote from: Bob In PA on March 13, 2025, 10:53:48 AMPSU (and @MightyGiants): I can completely identify with your (PSU's) overall reaction. That is mine, too.
The problem with Jones was not that he was picked too high... the problem was the list of other QB's who were ALSO AVAILABLE TO BE DRAFTED when the Giants picked Jones.
When you jump outside-the-box, you must be certain not only about the guy you pick, but reasonably sure there isn't a better choice.
You have confidence in your pick, but it has to be the result of an complete review of all QB's and a conclusion that they guy you're taking outside-the-box is at least as good a prospect as the guys you're not taking.
As @Ed Vette and I have discussed, I don't believe the Giants cared who else was available... all to their detriment and years of disappointment for us fans. I can't PROVE this is what actually occurred but I'm reasonably sure, based on examination of mostly recent history.
Bob
PS. The possible difference this year is that it would be IMO perfectly reasonable for the Giants to take Dart, because IMO it would be a lot more reasonable to pass up Ward and Sanders... compared to the choices that were available the year they drafted Jones. And as Ed knows, the move of taking Dart at Pick Three would not surprise me in the least... in the sense I make this remark, it's simply and "instant replay" of the Jones situation (although if they do it this year I'm also going to favor it since I don't like Ward or Sanders enough in any event.,
Bob, as I recall, there were no better choices at QB in that 2019 Draft. It's somewhat debatable if Murray was worth the first pick in the Draft. After Jones, Drew Lock was a mid-second round pick, then Grier late 3rd, and the rest of what Rich would refer to in his go-to colloquialism.
I believe the QB position is special and should not be slotted with other positions. Drafting Jones with the 6th pick wasn't the mistake, the mistake was holding on to him for 6 years.
Drake Maye struggled a bit last season but showed he was well worth that pick. Bo Nix also had an uneasy start. But with QBs you have to project ahead to the reward.
I believe that Dart may be the best QB in this Draft, but it's closer than a lot of "Experts" think with the top three guys. If they believe in Dart, they should draft him at 3 and not look back. It doesn't mean that if it was a mistake that they need to be married for more than 3 years to him.
I also believe this is a far better draft for QBs than the 2019 Draft. At least one and maybe more taken day 2-3, will prove to be good QBs imo.
I believe that Ward, Sanders, and Dart will need coaching and preparation of at least a half-season to be somewhat productive. That doesn't mean they should be held back, because I think all three will fight through it.
Take Dart, for instance. He is capable of making some fantastic throws, he demonstrated he can read pre and post snap and move through progressions. He can layer the passes nicely, had a good base and doesn't drift in the pocket. However, he also demonstrated that he's the Anti-DJ. When the checkdown is there and wide open, he tends to try to drive the ball downfield in tight and very questionable situations. Sometimes, it can be disastrous. Go watch the last quarter of the Florida game. The Gators were in Cover-2 most of the game. Ole Miss trailed by 7. he had all the time to take what the Defense was giving him, but two picks later, they lost by seven. Can he be coached out of that? Absolutely, but he will always be a Gun-Slinger at heart without the John Elway arm. Heck, even Favre lost games being aggressive. Eli lost games in WTH moments. So will Dart. Pick your poison. Dart although not a true NFL Dual-Threat, will do what Daboll wants and that is push the ball downfield and extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs.
I wouldn't take a chance on losing him by drafting back and being cute.
Will Howard might be the safest pick, and Pittsburgh would be a good landing spot for him. They should draft him with their first pick or lose him.
Tyler Shough is 25 years old, and he is spoken of because of Bo Nix and his experience. The big difference is that Shough has just one full complete season of football under his belt. It all came together last season. If the Giants don't pick a QB in round one, I would take him in round 2, because he may not last until round 3. What would be worse, moving up to take a CB in Banks in round 2 who may bust out, or a shot at a starting QB a year from now?
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2025, 10:11:18 AM@gregf and @PSUBeirut
The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).
That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?
I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?
I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?
I think we can take this piece completely off the table for discussion- I don't think there's anyone that would argue that if you need a franchise QB and you draft a guy at the top of the draft that becomes that QB for you, there is no question the pick is justified. It's simply too important a position, so there is no such thing as overdrafting an actual franchise QB.
But that's a huge....huge if. So the question becomes - what is the likelihood? In my opinion, if the vast majority of scouts and front offices agree a QB prospect is a mid-late 1st round guy (or 2nd round), then the gamble is even larger / more magnified if you take that guy top 3. In this case, it looks like it would be an even bigger gamble than Jones, who was generally slotted as a mid-1st round guy and we drafted him at #6.
Also, as for Jones- we have enough evidence now to say that where he was originally slotted was clearly on target, if not generous. He wasn't a clearcut franchise QB prospect and the way it has played out has proven that true. Bo Nix is a good counterexample, except he was not drafted at #3 overall. There's a big difference between #3 and #10 as far as "reach" is concerned (plus as you know it turns out he landed in the absolute best spot he could have, as a match with Payton).
So I think the argument is a good/quality one, but I'm sticking with my gut saying if the scouting world views a guy like Dart as a mid-late round prospect then there is clearly not enough evidence that he's a franchise-level guy that should be drafted at #3. I have no idea where the scouting world falls on this and I'm sure in the coming weeks it will become clearer (maybe!), but as of now I just don't think the gamble is worth it (again).
Quote from: Ed Vette on March 13, 2025, 11:52:11 AMBob, as I recall, there were no better choices at QB in that 2019 Draft. It's somewhat debatable if Murray was worth the first pick in the Draft. After Jones, Drew Lock was a mid-second round pick, then Grier late 3rd, and the rest of what Rich would refer to in his go-to colloquialism.
I believe the QB position is special and should not be slotted with other positions. Drafting Jones with the 6th pick wasn't the mistake, the mistake was holding on to him for 6 years.
Drake Maye struggled a bit last season but showed he was well worth that pick. Bo Nix also had an uneasy start. But with QBs you have to project ahead to the reward.
I believe that Dart may be the best QB in this Draft, but it's closer than a lot of "Experts" think with the top three guys. If they believe in Dart, they should draft him at 3 and not look back. It doesn't mean that if it was a mistake that they need to be married for more than 3 years to him.
I also believe this is a far better draft for QBs than the 2019 Draft. At least one and maybe more taken day 2-3, will prove to be good QBs imo.
I believe that Ward, Sanders, and Dart will need coaching and preparation of at least a half-season to be somewhat productive. That doesn't mean they should be held back, because I think all three will fight through it.
Take Dart, for instance. He is capable of making some fantastic throws, he demonstrated he can read pre and post snap and move through progressions. He can layer the passes nicely, had a good base and doesn't drift in the pocket. However, he also demonstrated that he's the Anti-DJ. When the checkdown is there and wide open, he tends to try to drive the ball downfield in tight and very questionable situations. Sometimes, it can be disastrous. Go watch the last quarter of the Florida game. The Gators were in Cover-2 most of the game. Ole Miss trailed by 7. he had all the time to take what the Defense was giving him, but two picks later, they lost by seven. Can he be coached out of that? Absolutely, but he will always be a Gun-Slinger at heart without the John Elway arm. Heck, even Favre lost games being aggressive. Eli lost games in WTH moments. So will Dart. Pick your poison. Dart although not a true NFL Dual-Threat, will do what Daboll wants and that is push the ball downfield and extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs.
I wouldn't take a chance on losing him by drafting back and being cute.
Will Howard might be the safest pick, and Pittsburgh would be a good landing spot for him. They should draft him with their first pick or lose him.
Tyler Shough is 25 years old, and he is spoken of because of Bo Nix and his experience. The big difference is that Shough has just one full complete season of football under his belt. It all came together last season. If the Giants don't pick a QB in round one, I would take him in round 2, because he may not last until round 3. What would be worse, moving up to take a CB in Banks in round 2 who may bust out, or a shot at a starting QB a year from now?
This post illustrates just how difficult a GM and football operations/head coach decisions truly are.
Quote from: Trench on March 13, 2025, 12:02:57 PMThis post illustrates just how difficult a GM and football operations/head coach decisions truly are.
Patrick Mahomes was predicted to be the 2nd to 4th best QB in the 2017 Draft. Somewhere in the late first to early second round. Andy Reid knew better than the Scouting world. He traded up from the 27th pick to the 10th selection and drafted one of the greatest QBs of all time. McAdoo knew, but the vote by consensus Giants Organization poo pooed him. It's what separates Chicken Salad from the Plant-Based version.
Quote from: Ed Vette on March 13, 2025, 12:17:03 PMPatrick Mahomes was predicted to be the 2nd to 4th best QB in the 2017 Draft. Somewhere in the late first to early second round. Andy Reid knew better than the Scouting world. He traded up from the 27th pick to the 10th selection and drafted one of the greatest QBs of all time. McAdoo knew, but the vote by consensus Giants Organization poo pooed him. It's what separates Chicken Salad from the Plant-Based version.
Wow. And also we can add Tom Brady draft to your example. McAdoo was spot on, as was Daboll on Jayden Daniels.
I look back at McAdoo and it just seems he wasn't ready for HC. But it's odd he hasn't gotten another chance.
History, while not a predictor of the future, certainly does give us a strong view of what is more likely to happen from Round to Round in terms of QB Draft success. How could anyone not know that? But, we also know why the Draft is so compelling yet can make us look quite silly on occasion. The answer? Chance, Luck, and O Fortuna, the fate that rules, the gods, guessers, and gamblers.
Cheers!
It's never too early when a pick changes a franchise's fortunes.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2025, 02:10:03 PMIt's never too early when a pick changes a franchise's fortunes.
uconn: ... but only if it works! Bob
Quote from: Ed Vette on March 13, 2025, 12:17:03 PMPatrick Mahomes was predicted to be the 2nd to 4th best QB in the 2017 Draft. Somewhere in the late first to early second round. Andy Reid knew better than the Scouting world. He traded up from the 27th pick to the 10th selection and drafted one of the greatest QBs of all time. McAdoo knew, but the vote by consensus Giants Organization poo pooed him. It's what separates Chicken Salad from the Plant-Based version.
In my opinion, Andy Reid's ability to identify and develop talent is criminally underrated. He's an excellent talent evaluator.
I'm on record for saying I've never cared where a QB is picked.
If you want one and believe in one, stand pat and pick them early. If they bust it doesn't matter where they were picked because you're setting the franchise back anyway, and if they're brilliant then no one will even care that the guy you took 3rd overall should have been taken 10th.
Just get the guy you want.
Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk
Quote from: Just_jimmy on March 13, 2025, 06:18:04 PMI'm on record for saying I've never cared where a QB is picked.
If you want one and believe in one, stand pat and pick them early. If they bust it doesn't matter where they were picked because you're setting the franchise back anyway, and if they're brilliant then no one will even care that the guy you took 3rd overall should have been taken 10th.
Just get the guy you want.
Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk
Yeah, Ed said elsewhere. It's holding onto him, way beyond the expiration date, is what gets you.
They've done it once, hopefully that absolute debacle is enough for them to learn.
Quote from: Bob In PA on March 13, 2025, 09:40:31 AMRich: I was prepared to disagree, but if you didn't convince me, you came really close. Nice post. Bob
Look at it this way. If the Broncos knew last year that Nix was going to be as good as he turned out to be, but he'd be gone after the third pick would they have happily moved up to get him even if people thought it was poor value? I think they would have done it in a minute.