(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gmz_Y2Ia8AAb-Rv?format=png&name=900x900)
https://x.com/Marcus_Mosher/status/1904177550747689460
Rich: It's tough to disagree with the consensus. Yes, somehow, I'm expecting a draft with more than the usual number big surprises and other crazy stuff. It's little more than a hunch, but if it happens, the most likely reason will stem from the fact that there are no sure-fire QB's this year. I may be repeating myself. Bob
Wow, Dart not even in the top 32 consensus. If we were to draft him at 3, I wonder where that would rank in the "most overdrafted player in recent history" list. ie- does this chart exist in the days before the drafts of the past 5-10 years and what was the discrepancy between consensus and where players were drafted. I'd of course assume that QB's would reliably be drafted higher than the consensus ranking, but I wonder just how much higher?
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 01:51:26 PMWow, Dart not even in the top 32 consensus. If we were to draft him at 3, I wonder where that would rank in the "most overdrafted player in recent history" list. ie- does this chart exist in the days before the drafts of the past 5-10 years and what was the discrepancy between consensus and where players were drafted. I'd of course assume that QB's would reliably be drafted higher than the consensus ranking, but I wonder just how much higher?
I am pretty sure Bo Nix wasn't on any consensus top 32 boards. Would you say he was the "most over-drafted player"?
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 01:51:26 PMWow, Dart not even in the top 32 consensus. If we were to draft him at 3, I wonder where that would rank in the "most overdrafted player in recent history" list. ie- does this chart exist in the days before the drafts of the past 5-10 years and what was the discrepancy between consensus and where players were drafted. I'd of course assume that QB's would reliably be drafted higher than the consensus ranking, but I wonder just how much higher?
PSU: I noticed. IMO, the Penn State guys are placed about right, don't you think? Bob
Similar to the Huddle Report Value Board.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2025, 02:01:55 PMI am pretty sure Bo Nix wasn't on any consensus top 32 boards. Would you say he was the "most over-drafted player"?
Maybe? I'd have to see what these consensus lists looked like last year just before the draft. And for good measure, I'd actually love to look at them for as long as they go back. Would you have any idea where that kind of data could be located? I think it could be very instructive. I don't mind digging in and reporting back if you could point me in the right direction.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 02:28:42 PMMaybe? I'd have to see what these consensus lists looked like last year just before the draft. And for good measure, I'd actually love to look at them for as long as they go back. Would you have any idea where that kind of data could be located? I think it could be very instructive. I don't mind digging in and reporting back if you could point me in the right direction.
I don't know if this is the best consensus board, but it does allow you to select the year, and it goes back quite a few drafts
https://jacklich10.com/bigboard/nfl/
Has anyone else read or heard that Mason Graham might not be the hardest worker and needs a fire lit under him? He sure would be a nice fit next to Dexi if he wants to play.
Quote from: Gman329 on March 24, 2025, 02:40:19 PMHas anyone else read or heard that Mason Graham might not be the hardest worker and needs a fire lit under him? He sure would be a nice fit next to Dexi if he wants to play.
Amongst other things.
I think he is overrated, and overvalued, I have no interest in him personally, and would be disappointed if we somehow drafted him.
I'd much rather have Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen, Deone Walker or Darius Alexander on Day 2.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2025, 02:33:45 PMI don't know if this is the best consensus board, but it does allow you to select the year, and it goes back quite a few drafts
https://jacklich10.com/bigboard/nfl/
I'll dig in later. At first glance, it's a pretty interesting look at QBs for sure. At a glance, the only QB in the past 8 years ranked consensus 80 or lower that had any success is Brock Purdy. Currently Dart is ranked 89. Nix was 35 last year. Interesting stuff.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 03:10:46 PMI'll dig in later. At first glance, it's a pretty interesting look at QBs for sure. At a glance, the only QB in the past 8 years ranked consensus 80 or lower that had any success is Brock Purdy. Currently Dart is ranked 89. Nix was 35 last year. Interesting stuff.
Here's another one, that has Dart 33 and Nix 32
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=QB
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2025, 03:13:51 PMHere's another one, that has Dart 33 and Nix 32
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=QB
Good stuff. Big difference between mock draft consensus, which would clearly bake QBs being overdrafted in, and overall consensus on prospect quality though. Although I do wonder if a good number of these folks also push QBs higher on their overall prospect rankings, because of that same QB value being baked in.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 03:17:11 PMGood stuff. Big difference between mock draft consensus, which would clearly bake QBs being overdrafted in, and overall consensus on prospect quality though. Although I do wonder if a good number of these folks also push QBs higher on their overall prospect rankings, because of that same QB value being baked in.
I get a sense that the first link I gave you, the consensus value board, wasn't updated. It had Sanders higher than where he currently sits and Dart lower, than where they are today.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on March 24, 2025, 02:28:42 PMMaybe? I'd have to see what these consensus lists looked like last year just before the draft. And for good measure, I'd actually love to look at them for as long as they go back. Would you have any idea where that kind of data could be located? I think it could be very instructive. I don't mind digging in and reporting back if you could point me in the right direction.
I don't know about rankings, but Nix was always considered a top prospect. Not at the level of Williams, Daniels, and Maye, but definitely in the top tier. Dart is getting noticed mainly because the field is so sparse. If Nix was in this class he would be very noticed.
I'm not too sure how much value these rankings hold.
If anyone is any doubt, Neal and Thibs were consensus picks 2 and in 3 in '22.
Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on March 24, 2025, 09:50:57 PMI'm not too sure how much value these rankings hold.
If anyone is any doubt, Neal and Thibs were consensus picks 2 and in 3 in '22.
This brings three thoughts to mind
1) That wasn't a great draft class (Giants' luck to have two top picks)
2) It shows the unpredictable nature of the draft
3) Development is as important as scouting
A front four of Thibs, Burns, Lawrence and Graham could push the defense into the top third in the league. I love Carters game but he do we add another edge when we already have two? Hunter has loads of potential but he doesn't add to whatever we already have. Graham is the perfect balance of need and ability, which means we'll reach and draft Sanders, who IMHO will be a meh NFL quarterback. While the other three will end up in Canton.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2025, 03:26:44 PMI get a sense that the first link I gave you, the consensus value board, wasn't updated. It had Sanders higher than where he currently sits and Dart lower, than where they are today.
Turns out this is true. I just spot checked CBS and they have Dart at 48 and also checked ESPN and they have him at 28. So- no use using these consensus type rankings until we get much closer to the draft, I'd say- it would be comparing apples to oranges.
I am going to circle back, though, because it will be interesting to put some data to the notion of QBs being over-drafted (and also, is there a general cutoff line of where the consensus ranks land and how well that player actually plays- my gut says yes and that's probably generally quantifiable).
I still think, based on the broad consensus view of Dart that he's just not #3 material. Which is ok- certainly possible he still becomes a very good pro, just think he would be quite a reach at where we are picking.
Quote from: Gman329 on March 24, 2025, 02:40:19 PMHas anyone else read or heard that Mason Graham might not be the hardest worker and needs a fire lit under him? He sure would be a nice fit next to Dexi if he wants to play.
No that was a 1 off thing. Probably someone on a team wanting him to fall to them.
He never takes plays off and his win rate is unbelievable. Anyone saying he's overrated has not watched Michigan football.
Quote from: madbadger on March 25, 2025, 09:49:28 AMA front four of Thibs, Burns, Lawrence and Graham could push the defense into the top third in the league. I love Carters game but he do we add another edge when we already have two? Hunter has loads of potential but he doesn't add to whatever we already have. Graham is the perfect balance of need and ability, which means we'll reach and draft Sanders, who IMHO will be a meh NFL quarterback. While the other three will end up in Canton.
I see it the same.