Via college football insider Bruce Feldman (he projects the Giants taking Sanders at 3)
3. New York Giants: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
The Giants have a big need at quarterback. Sanders, the son of football legend Deion Sanders, is a polarizing prospect. He and his dad arrived at Colorado two years ago and revived a program that had been left for dead. They, along with fellow Jackson State transfer Travis Hunter, made the Buffaloes nationally relevant immediately. The younger Sanders sparked the Buffs to a season-opening road win at TCU, a team that played in the national title game the previous season. In 2024, the Buffs improved from 4-8 to 9-4 and finished in the Top 25.
In two seasons, despite playing behind a woeful O-line, Sanders amassed a 64-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
"I think he has good arm talent and really good poise," a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. "I think he's almost too cocky, at least at the college level, where he would take some really bad sacks. Decision-making-wise, I think he thinks he's better than everybody else, and that does help him elevate his game, but it also gets him into some bad situations. And if he doesn't shake that, he's gonna take way too many sacks in the NFL."
At 6-1 1/2, 212 pounds, Sanders does not have his dad's remarkable athleticism. Rival coaches estimate Sanders is probably a high 4.7, low 4.8 (40) guy.
"Even though he's not fast, he was pretty elusive," the Big 12 defensive coordinator said. "What I thought he does very well is when plays broke down, that was a strength. Once the first read wasn't there and he broke the pocket, he kept his eyes downfield and really had a nice touch and was accurate. Especially when he's on the run, that's when he's most dangerous. I don't know if he has any elite physical traits, but I do think he has elite processing and feel for the game."
One former NFL coach who watched a lot of Sanders was reminded of when Mac Jones came out of college, wondering whether he has any elite traits.
"Yeah, he's smooth, and he operates well," the coach said, "but if he operates so well, why does he take so many sacks? I know his O-line is awful, and I get that to an extent, but I'm watching him, and like 40 percent of the sacks are on him. Dude, just throw the ball!"
But that coach also believes Sanders is very accurate.
"He throws a very catchable ball," the coach said, "and knows what kind of ball to throw, and his pocket movement is good, and those things do translate, but his clock is way too slow. It might be because he always thinks he has to make a play, but that's not gonna go well in the NFL."
Said a Big 12 secondary coach, "I think he really understands football and is very smart, and their OC did a good job of playing to his strengths. I don't think he's gonna be a bust."
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6246631/2025/04/02/nfl-mock-draft-2025-bruce-feldman/?source=user_shared_article
All fair points. I won't be angry if they take, although I would not do it, especially if Carter and/or Hunter are there.
Why? Because picking a QB is always a crap shoot. For example, there was certainly no unanimity among the so-called experts that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a world-class bust. IMO the most difficult decision in all of off-field NFL football is drafting a QB, because the stakes are so very high.
I should also say my "best" reason to draft him is because we can be more certain than usual that he can handle the "bright lights" of playing for the Giants. The comparison of Shadeur/Deion to Eli/Archie (both the good and bad of it) is clearly imperfect because Deion was not an NFL QB, but IMO it's close enough to rely upon.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:21:51 AMAll fair points.
I won't be angry if they take, although I would not do it, especially if Carter and/or Hunter are there.
Why? Because picking a QB is always a crap shoot. For example, there was certainly no unanimity among the so-called experts that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a world-class bust. IMO the most difficult decision in all of off-field NFL football is drafting a QB, because the stakes are so very high.
Bob
Bob - NFL teams did wowful due diligence on Leaf. With talent like his, he does not make his high school's Hall of Fame, there is something wrong about his attitude, maturity or something mentally. That should have been a red flag.
Quote from: Philosophers on April 02, 2025, 11:26:49 AMBob - NFL teams did wowful due diligence on Leaf. With talent like his, he does not make his high school's Hall of Fame, there is something wrong about his attitude, maturity or something mentally. That should have been a red flag.
Phil: I never heard that item of info about Leaf.
Thanks for pointing it out.
Also I amended my post after you copied it, so maybe you also want to comment on the extra paragraph.
Bob
@Bob In PA and
@Philosophers I once had a chat with a guy who went to school with Leaf. He told me that Leaf was well-known on campus as a major league A-hole
Combine that with the story Bill Polian tells about how Leaf told him he wanted a couple of weeks vacation with his buddies after he would be drafted versus Peyton Manning trying to figure out how to beat the NFL/NCAA rules that would have caused him to miss some off-season activities
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:21:51 AMAll fair points. I won't be angry if they take, although I would not do it, especially if Carter and/or Hunter are there.
Why? Because picking a QB is always a crap shoot. For example, there was certainly no unanimity among the so-called experts that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a world-class bust. IMO the most difficult decision in all of off-field NFL football is drafting a QB, because the stakes are so very high.
I should also say my "best" reason to draft him is because we can be more certain than usual that he can handle the "bright lights" of playing for the Giants. The comparison of Shadeur/Deion to Eli/Archie (both the good and bad of it) is clearly imperfect because Deion was not an NFL QB, but IMO it's close enough to rely upon.
Bob
I don't think they should take him either, but there is a flip side to what you just said about picking a QB is a crap shoot. If they don't take the shot, they always get crap.
My gut is to take Milroe in the second and third round and hope they can develop him. If not, he has other tools that might work in the NFL as a hybrid for a creative play caller. And my gut also says most likely they will be on the prowl for a QB next year and it would make more sense for a new coach and QB to be involved in that process.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 02, 2025, 11:30:55 AM@Bob In PA and @Philosophers
I once had a chat with a guy who went to school with Leaf. He told me that Leaf was well-known on campus as a major league A-hole
Combine that with the story Bill Polian tells about how Leaf told him he wanted a couple of weeks vacation with his buddies after he would be drafted versus Peyton Manning trying to figure out how to beat the NFL/NCAA rules that would have caused him to miss some off-season activities
Rich: Bad memory and all, I absolutely DO remember discussing that very issue on-line, at wherever I was participating at that time (whenever it was lol). I also don't recall if it was before the draft or some time thereafter. Bob
This evaluation reads like his best comp is Johnny Manziel.
I'm not trying to put him down, I'm simply reacting to what I just read.
Really good when it breaks down (at the college level).
He makes poor decisions because he thinks he's the smartest guy on the field.
His tools (speed, arm strength) are limited. Do those limitations impact his ability to make plays in the NFL; bigger,stronger, faster defenders than college?
Taking so many sacks in college is one thing. Does he have the body to endure half as much punishment at the NFL level?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:21:51 AMAll fair points. I won't be angry if they take, although I would not do it, especially if Carter and/or Hunter are there.
Why? Because picking a QB is always a crap shoot. For example, there was certainly no unanimity among the so-called experts that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a world-class bust. IMO the most difficult decision in all of off-field NFL football is drafting a QB, because the stakes are so very high.
I should also say my "best" reason to draft him is because we can be more certain than usual that he can handle the "bright lights" of playing for the Giants. The comparison of Shadeur/Deion to Eli/Archie (both the good and bad of it) is clearly imperfect because Deion was not an NFL QB, but IMO it's close enough to rely upon.
Bob
I'd be upset. If you have to squint really hard to avoid seeing a players glaring weakness he isn't worth the third pick overall especially when there are three players that check almost all the boxes sitting there to be had.
https://x.com/lostalkspats/status/1907482401242230982?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on April 02, 2025, 04:28:23 PMThis evaluation reads like his best comp is Johnny Manziel.
I'm not trying to put him down, I'm simply reacting to what I just read.
Really good when it breaks down (at the college level).
He makes poor decisions because he thinks he's the smartest guy on the field.
His tools (speed, arm strength) are limited. Do those limitations impact his ability to make plays in the NFL; bigger,stronger, faster defenders than college?
Taking so many sacks in college is one thing. Does he have the body to endure half as much punishment at the NFL level?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
I've never seen this comp made before but I think it's absolutely perfect.
He's gonna be the pick. He's openly telling people he's going to the Giants and pretty much blew off all the other interviews.
Deion is making it clear to the Browns not to draft him.
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:29:03 AMPhil: I never heard that item of info about Leaf.
Thanks for pointing it out.
Also I amended my post after you copied it, so maybe you also want to comment on the extra paragraph.
Bob
With a poor OL, why did Shedeur take all those sacks? That's a horrible attribute. It's not he gambled downfield and threw picks. He simply costed his team valuable yards. Does he fix that in the NFL? Rushers will be faster.
The Giants were woeful last year . Sanders will not make them better this coming year. Hunter or Carter will. Sanders is not Daniels, Williams, Maye Luck, etc. Can he be a franchise QB, I have no idea. I don't know how much better he is than the other QBs in this draft.
We should improve our team the best we can. Wilson will be better than any QB we had last year.
Quote from: madbadger on April 02, 2025, 05:35:11 PMI'd be upset. If you have to squint really hard to avoid seeing a players glaring weakness he isn't worth the third pick overall especially when there are three players that check almost all the boxes sitting there to be had.
madb: I'm right there with you.
My only quibble results from a sincere belief that I know less about QB's than they do. lol
So, if they're willing to risk their jobs taking Sanders and passing on either Carter or Hunter, then I say, "Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" (and old World War I song).
Bob
I have to laugh at the use of Ryan Leaf to somehow underscore the uncertainty surrounding the Drafting of a Quarterback in Round 1 when we know that the average success rate for such over the past 20 years has been about 58 percent. That is, of course, if we can agree on a definition or measure of what we regard as "success". And even more so, that we understand what actually is meant by "average"
In predicting and projecting uncertain outcomes, such as with the Draft, we draw conclusions based on anything from a single data point, recent or past e.g., Ryan Leaf to an average of many years' worth of results and so end up with another single data point. And in that regard, because of the variance from year to year over time, it has become almost idiomatic that "plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average.
I suppose that explains why, although not really comparable, we so often use the "crapshoot" analogy in referring to the Draft. In any case, while uncertainty is ever-present, risk is in the eye of the beholder. However, should it make us feel a little better, I can report that the odds of success on average for QBs taken in the top-5 of the Draft is about 80 percent.
Cheers!
Quote from: Painter on April 03, 2025, 11:36:51 AMI have to laugh at the use of Ryan Leaf to somehow underscore the uncertainty surrounding the Drafting of a Quarterback in Round 1 when we know that the average success rate for such over the past 20 years has been about 58 percent. That is, of course, if we can agree on a definition or measure of what we regard as "success". And even more so, that we understand what actually is meant by "average"
In predicting and projecting uncertain outcomes, such as with the Draft, we draw conclusions based on anything from a single data point, recent or past e.g., Ryan Leaf to an average of many years' worth of results and so end up with another single data point. And in that regard, because of the variance from year to year over time, it has become almost idiomatic that "plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average.
I suppose that explains why, although not really comparable, we so often use the "crapshoot" analogy in referring to the Draft. In any case, while uncertainty is ever-present, risk is in the eye of the beholder. However, should it make us feel a little better, I can report that the odds of success on average for QBs taken in the top-5 of the Draft is about 80 percent.
Cheers!
Larry,
Daniel Jones is a prime example of the challenge in defining success when it comes to drafting a QB.
Some QB success studies I have seen would use "signs a veteran contract with the drafting team" as the measure of a successful QB. By that standard, DJ was a success, despite common sense being clear he wasn't a successful QB (at least for the Giants and at least as of this point in time).
Another measure I have seen used was "taking their team to at least one playoff or adding the extra standard of winning at least one playoff game. Again, that captures DJ as a successful pick.
Unless you start using something like Pro Bowls (which has its own issues) or raw stats like yards or TDs per season, the definition of success will be less than perfect.
Of course, there is the other issue of a player like Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff, who proved to be a successful QB (by most reasonable measures), yet the team that drafted them didn't enjoy that success.
https://x.com/gmenscouting/status/1907900054012051669?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 03, 2025, 07:51:11 AMmadb: I'm right there with you.
My only quibble results from a sincere belief that I know less about QB's than they do. lol
So, if they're willing to risk their jobs taking Sanders and passing on either Carter or Hunter, then I say, "Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" (and old World War I song).
Bob
Let's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.
Quote from: madbadger on April 03, 2025, 06:13:44 PMLet's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.
Is this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 03, 2025, 07:10:32 PMIs this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.
$82 million for two years for what amounts to a solid backup quarterback? Yeah it was absurd. He's thrown for more than 15 touchdowns once in his career and that was his rookie year.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 03, 2025, 07:10:32 PMIs this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.
Schoen had five options when it came to Daniel Jones
1) Exercise the 5th year option (it didn't make sense at the time but in hindsight the best option)
2) Sign Barkley to a veteran contract and tag Daniel Jones
3) Let Jones hit the open market and match and slightly beat any deal he found
4) Sign DJ to the $80 million-plus deal for what proved to be two seasons (still taking a nearly $25 million cap hit this season)
5) Sign DJ to a long-term veteran contract.
Schoen literally opted for the 2nd worst out of 5 options. I am not sure how that could be seen as "wise"
I've seen Sanders confused on tape..hesitant..and not elusive enough. Not really dynamic. Solid. Quick game guy that can maybe be a mid-tier guy..last in the NFL but not at 3...for me..
Quote from: madbadger on April 03, 2025, 06:13:44 PMLet's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.
madb: Fact. But drafting a QB is mostly about football. Re-signing Jones was largely about business. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on Today at 09:39:06 AMmadb: Fact. But drafting a QB is mostly about football. Re-signing Jones was largely about business. Bob
I couldn't disagree more. In what world does it make good business sense to reward an employee who has failed to even approach mediocrity his entire career with a contract with a value far beyond his actual performance to the company? If that is the case why did we balk at paying Barkley fair market value? In fact he was asking for far less than what he ended up getting from Philly and his value to the business was far more impactful than Jones.
I don't know why anyone would try and justify the extension Schoen gave Jones. It was nonsense.
I think everyone should step back from all these repeated evaluations of draft prospects and ask themselves, "what is their first knee jerk reaction when they initally look at a prospect?" Use that for someone like Sanders. I see a player who may have some very good skills at ball timing and placement simply holds onto the football too much and does not have a big enough arm to make all the necessary throws particularly in December when the weather gets really bad.
They doubled up the mistake that the Jets did with
Ryan Fitzpatrick
An extra year
4 times the mone
If they were a Jet fan both of them would of realize it was a mistake to give him all that money
Quote from: madbadger on Today at 10:18:39 AMI couldn't disagree more. In what world does it make good business sense to reward an employee who has failed to even approach mediocrity his entire career with a contract with a value far beyond his actual performance to the company? If that is the case why did we balk at paying Barkley fair market value? In fact he was asking for far less than what he ended up getting from Philly and his value to the business was far more impactful than Jones.
I don't know why anyone would try and justify the extension Schoen gave Jones. It was nonsense.
madb: I think I failed to explain myself as well as possible. What I meant to say begins with the obvious proposition that football knowledge and business acumen are two entirely different things.
To answer your question, it doesn't make sense, but I believe their mistake was more bad business than lack of football knowledge. Once you draft a guy, you can't look back. Big mistakes sometimes beget bigger mistakes. The big mistake was believing Jones could be a franchise player in the first place. Now that they were stuck with him, and considering they had no one else to replace him with (on the roster or on the horizon) it mattered a lot less at that point what they thought of him as a player. They had to sign somebody to buy time to fix the rest of the roster mess and await the appearance (in the draft or free agency) of the next face of the franchise.
The bottom line for me on Jones' final contract is that IMO it was more a business decision than a display of lack of football knowledge... just like the awful Barkley decision (made at roughly the same time).
Bob
Dan Orlovsky had a brilliant point about difficulty in evaluating Shedeur Sanders. He said 75% of his throws he made in college don't matter in his evaluation of him which makes him so hard to evaluate. He said that 50% of his throws were inside of 5 yards, basically back to line of scrimmage and another 25% of his throws were made with his OL pass blocking failing so quickly he could not do anything. As a result, you only have 25% of his throws to evaluate.
Dan Schneier
@DanSchneierNFL
ยท
22m
If Giants draft Shedeur; What excites me most:
- throwing mechanics
- toughness
- production without run game + bad OL
What scares me most:
His minus-1.8 average air yards to the first-down marker ranked 132nd among 147 QBs per Tru Media
That's big ^ he'll need to process/find more aggressive solutions v pressure. Giants fans are weathered in watching a QB who threw short of the sticks too often & the impact it had the pass game
https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1908176787391029652
https://x.com/CoryRAanalytics/status/1908204823796752401
Just read that Travis Hunter didn't run a 40 at his pro day. That is a gigantic red flag for me. If he was a legit 4.4 guy he'd run it. He plays two positions where speed is at a premium. After watch Neal struggle with speed rushes Schoen shouldn't waste a high draft pick on a guy too scared to put a time on paper. Hard pass for me.
https://x.com/DMRussini/status/1908236404947300637
Quote from: MightyGiants on Today at 03:30:08 PMhttps://x.com/DMRussini/status/1908236404947300637
By my calculation, that was an 80-yard pass
I am pretty much convinced Giants will NOT be taking Sanders at 3.
However a trade back up in round 1 should he slide is possible.