Bobby Skinner
@BobbySkinner_
Giants/Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart Deep Passing 2024
(20+ Yards from LOS)
Total
22.6% Throw Rate
38/90 42.2%
1550 yards 119.2 YPG
17 TD 4 INT
SEC (8 Games)
24.1% Throw Rate
18/59 30.5%
734 yards 91.7 YPG
6 TD 3 INT
Non-Conference (5 Games)
20.1% Throw Rate
20/31 64.5%
816 yards 163.2 YPG
11 TD 1 INT
Kept my thoughts out of the individual posts but will give some here.
He is aggressive. Really aggressive. His attempt rate would have been the highest in the NFL by almost 4%. I think that number being higher v. SEC opponents is a product of less easy throw but him being more comfortable throwing vertical than trusting spacing. That's what you want to work with a young QB. I also think the decision making was good on the majority of misses (outside of Florida/LSU) but he was just innacuarate.
The innaccuracy worries me against the SEC. The All-22 shows this better but it would consistently putter out around 50 yards and fall short & inside too often. Fades away from too many throws which leads to this but he doesn't lack arm talent, just elite arm talent that allows you to play how he does consistently. You see against the bad teams how good it can be when he's comfortable. Gotta be able to do it uncomortable spots in the NFL to be successful.
Here's how his deep completion rate would rank in the NFL in 2024 (42 QB's):
Total: 42.2% (9th)
SEC: 30.5% (34th)
Non-Conf: 64.5% (1st)
Ultimately, Dart needs to learn quick game, protections, get more comfortable going through progressions and seeing things post snap but we all like the aggression and it has to be a big part of why he was Brian Daboll's guy. Get better at it and let's win some damn games!
https://x.com/BobbySkinner_/status/1932526265870782551
I think he stays equally as aggressive because of the Wrs around him with the Giants. What doesn't get mentioned enough is that Dart was atill aggressive despite missing his top 2 Rbs, top Wr, top TE, and top 3 Olineman for a huge portion of the season.
Normally if a Qb loses his top weapon or a couple of guys on the oline then they become a shell of themselves and play it safe. That however isn't in Darts DNA and likely one of the many reasons Daboll loved the kid. No matter what was going on he wasn't afraid to chunk it.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 11, 2025, 03:27:13 PMHe is aggressive. Really aggressive.
Rich: Just my personal view, not popular among guys I talk to, but they're all at colleges.
I'd rather have a gunslinger and spend my time working to "back him off of it" than the opposite.
Exhibit one would be Daniel Jones. Not saying he'll never work up to it, but haven't seen it so far and his career is probably closer to its end than its beginning.
Bob
This isn't OlMiss. Totally different Offense, routes, progressions, and strategy. He will also be taught to get velocity and power from the ground. That trailing leg is causing the tailoff on the deep throws. And that deep throw percentage will come down. He won't have the time to throw that he did there.
Ed,
He..I'm sure.(Dart) Is aware of that and has time to process the speed of the game. I mean. panic did despite doubts under Payton very well in his rookie season- evident in preseason.
Patience is key. I think he has the intangible it of a successful QB in the league.We will surely get a better idea in August where he's at.. naturally.
:Giants:
Quote from: Bob In PA on June 11, 2025, 04:57:35 PMI'd rather have a gunslinger and spend my time working to "back him off of it" than the opposite.
There is something to like in every post in this thread. The one point which stuck out like a sore thumb was your declarative statement above,
@Bob In PA , and I'll tell you why. Let me set the background for you. My ex's late father-in-law, a good man, an Army Officer and a Gentleman, was a graduate of the University of Southern Mississippi. His mama, who passed roughly a year after I married his daughter, and having earned her trust and respect during that time, warmly and affectionately welcomed me into her loving family, my Hattiesburg "kinfolk," if you will. When she passed, my father-in-law, and his sister, begged me to be a lector at her funeral Mass; I was honored and blessed to do so. Being taken in and "accepted" as an in-law, albeit a "Yankee," deep in the heart of Dixie when Southerners would case you down with their eyeballs, it was considered a badge of honor (NOTE: I had just completed my Army service with a nearly two-year course in "Southern Culture" at Fort Fordon in Augusta, Georgia so I felt pretty good about my chances when I told them I made the best grits this side of the Mississippi River (NOTE: that alone earned me cool points!); however, I'm now fully digressing so time to get back on track here, now!
Down south, even back in them, thar-a days, the legend of Brett Farve rung loud and clear like the bells on many of the churches which ring THREE times DAILY!
So, in keeping with Southern Tradition, you say the word "gunslinger" and the #4 comes-a-rising to the occasion! Dare we suggest that when looking for a blonde-haired gunslinger in 1979, with the traits of Terry Bradshaw, this small-town country kid from Kentucky named Simms stepped up??? Also, one day, the legendary Bradshaw would be in the broadcast booth praising the Dickens out of the kid wearing #11 for the Big Blue??? Really???
Now, out of Mississippi, where "Gunslingers" are known to be bred and developed, where legends have originated from that place called "Ole' Miss" where they wear the red, white and blue. The "Ole' Miss," where Giants Among Men have led the organization to glory, "Ole' Glory!"
Could it be that the Giants now have themselves a good old fashioned "gunslinger" from the deep south who's here to thrill? To thrill but also to win? To win but also win BIG? To win BIG AND WIN IT ALL?
Would you like some butter, salt and pepper with your grits, folks? How 'bout a pinch of cayenne to spice things up?
Ready for a little "spice" in this kid's game? I know I will with bowl in hand!
Peace!
Another thing to consider would be Tyrods deep passing numbers in 2023. If I could find them again I would use them to illustrate how our offense will likely look this season. If I remember I had a Tyrod Taylor thread that broke down all his advanced analytics and that he led the league in BTT, and deep passing metrics in 2023 despite not playing the full season. He was aggressive and taking shots despite not having hardly any weapons, he was still aggressive. Now imagine Wilson and Dart who are known to throw it deep, I can imagine a season that revolves around deep shots to Nabers, Hyatt, and Slayton.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 11, 2025, 03:27:13 PMThe innaccuracy worries me against the SEC. The All-22 shows this better but it would consistently putter out around 50 yards and fall short & inside too often.
I'd assume him still being young he can improve that with strength training as well as improved body mechanics.
Didn't Brady have a weaker arm when he started as well as some others?
To piggy back on Chris' comments about gunslingers. According to Google, the definition of a QB known as a "gunslinger" requires:
1) Strong Arm
2) Unpredictability
3) Swagger
Brett Favre is probably best known as a modern day "gunslinger", but the list has a long history of successful gunslinging QBs. Dan Marino, Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Joe Namath, Sonny Jurgenson, Dan Pastorini, etc
Roger Staubach had gun slinger capabilities, but he played for a coach that was very rigid in his approach because he thought that the scheme was the most important aspect for a successful team. However, when Staubach got into the two-minute drives or had to improvise, his gunslinging skills came to life and could make plays that were jaw dropping exciting to see
Is Jaxon Dart a gunslinger?
1) Strong Arm [check]
2) Unpredictability [TBD]
3) Swagger [check]
I guess it amounts to how much rope Daboll gives him
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 11, 2025, 07:34:06 PM1) Strong Arm [check]
2) Unpredictability [TBD]
3) Swagger [check]
Does Dart have above average arm strength by NFL standards? I thought he was more just middle of the road in this specific area. If he has an above average arm, I was misinformed.
Quote from: Bob In PA on June 11, 2025, 04:57:35 PMI'd rather have a gunslinger and spend my time working to "back him off of it" than the opposite.
Bob
I'd rather have to tell the dog "heel" than "sic-em"
I've heard from an inspirational speaker that, "it's easier to tame a wildfire, then raise the dead"
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 11, 2025, 07:42:02 PMDoes Dart have above average arm strength by NFL standards? I thought he was more just middle of the road in this specific area. If he has an above average arm, I was misinformed.
NFL QBs arm velocity
Josh Allen, 62 mph
Patrick Mahomes, 62 mph
Joe Milton, 62 mph
JJ McCarthy, 61 mph
Baker Mayfield, 60 mph
CJ Stroud, 59 mph
Kirk Cousins, 59 mph
Malik Willis, 58 mph
Jared Goff, 58 mph
Jaxson Dart, 58 mph 👀
Carson Wentz, 57 mph
Justin Herbert, 55 mph
Gardner Minshew, 55 mph
Dak Prescott, 54 mph
Jalen Hurts, 54 mph
Anthony Richardson, 54 mph
Jordan Love, 54 mph
Daniel Jones, 53 mph
Brock Purdy, 52 mph
Mitch Trubisky, 51 mph
Lamar Jackson, 49 mph
Deshaun Watson, 49 mph
The average NFL Qb is in that 53 mph range and Dart's 58 mph velocity is considered in that upper echelon. Dart is only 21 and can get even stronger with his base and arm.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 11, 2025, 09:04:37 PMNFL QBs arm velocity
Josh Allen, 62 mph
Patrick Mahomes, 62 mph
Joe Milton, 62 mph
JJ McCarthy, 61 mph
Baker Mayfield, 60 mph
CJ Stroud, 59 mph
Kirk Cousins, 59 mph
Malik Willis, 58 mph
Jared Goff, 58 mph
Jaxson Dart, 58 mph 👀
Carson Wentz, 57 mph
Justin Herbert, 55 mph
Gardner Minshew, 55 mph
Dak Prescott, 54 mph
Jalen Hurts, 54 mph
Anthony Richardson, 54 mph
Jordan Love, 54 mph
Daniel Jones, 53 mph
Brock Purdy, 52 mph
Mitch Trubisky, 51 mph
Lamar Jackson, 49 mph
Deshaun Watson, 49 mph
The average NFL Qb is in that 53 mph range and Dart's 58 mph velocity is considered in that upper echelon. Dart is only 21 and can get even stronger with his base and arm.
Good point on age... agree he is going to be on an upward trajectory on this.
Just for my info, what is this stat exactly? The average velocity of all throws? Or their hardest throws? Obviously QBs mix up speeds given the situation. I think this is interesting so I just want to be sure I understand precisely what I'm looking at here.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 11, 2025, 10:21:06 PMGood point on age... agree he is going to be on an upward trajectory on this.
Just for my info, what is this stat exactly? The average velocity of all throws? Or their hardest throws? Obviously QBs mix up speeds given the situation. I think this is interesting so I just want to be sure I understand precisely what I'm looking at here.
https://x.com/impactfbdata/status/1895942164569604226?t=5Kxi_zhj3UvFa8tfgaqmlQ&s=19
I got the list from Twitter. It was a list of the fastest thrown ball by a QB on the velocity test at the combine. The video above is Dart doing his velocity test this year. It's why you don't see some guys on the list that didn't participate at the combine.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 11, 2025, 07:42:02 PMDoes Dart have above average arm strength by NFL standards? I thought he was more just middle of the road in this specific area. If he has an above average arm, I was misinformed.
I remember Phil Simms arm got stronger as he got older
Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 11, 2025, 10:32:18 PMhttps://x.com/impactfbdata/status/1895942164569604226?t=5Kxi_zhj3UvFa8tfgaqmlQ&s=19
I got the list from Twitter. It was a list of the fastest thrown ball by a QB on the velocity test at the combine. The video above is Dart doing his velocity test this year. It's why you don't see some guys on the list that didn't participate at the combine.
Good stuff. Thanks for the clarification.
You don't need to have a hand-cannon for an arm to be an awesome NFL QB. It's definitely better to have one than to not, but we can all name tons of QBs who didn't have them. Accuracy is more important, as are (especially) all the mental traits.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 11, 2025, 10:48:54 PMGood stuff. Thanks for the clarification.
You don't need to have a hand-cannon for an arm to be an awesome NFL QB. It's definitely better to have one than to not, but we can all name tons of QBs who didn't have them. Accuracy is more important, as are (especially) all the mental traits.
A good example is one of my favorite QBs of all time..."The Snake", Kenny Stabler. Threw the softest ball with a high arch with precision. I don't recall him ever throwing a long ball, and his spin rate was so slow, you could count the revolutions. But he took his style, and made it work. On the other hand, Bob Greise used to through short passes so hard, the receivers often couldn't handle it. Never a problem for the snake...anyone could catch his ball
The only thing that matters is that the QB uses his own style and makes it work. No two are exactly alike and there never will be two who are exactly alike
A few thoughts on Bobby's work.
First off, solid job by Bobby
1) I think it's worth noting that a few QB-needy teams passed on Jaxson Dart. The Giants were able to get him in the 20s, which would indicate that most NFL teams didn't see Dart as an elite prospect. I would guess the things that dinged him were not having elite arm strength (which is a big measure among NFL teams). I suspect the NFL overvalues that trait, as we have seen many a strong-armed QB get drafted only to crash and burn.
2) I am unsure of the conclusions we can draw from the way Bobby broke things down. I would need to see how other QB prospects looked when you broke out their games against good teams (or strong defenses) and weaker teams. Let's face it, every QB will feast on the weaker competition they face, even in the NFL. SO to take an unusual slice (only against the SEC) and then suggest that shows how Dart will do against NFL competition... I am not sure how sound that idea is because it hasn't been done before. Hell, I would suspect Cam Ward wouldn't look so good if you only took the handful of games against quality defenses.
3) I had heard early in the scouting process that Dart could get sloppy with his mechanics. This is what
@Ed Vette alluded to in his post. If Dart cleans up his mechanics, his ceiling is what Bobby witnessed in the non-SEC games.
4) Dart is a young QB. He is only 21. He has time to get the grown-ass-man strength. Remember, we are comparing his throwing to many other prospects 2 or 3 years older than he is.
5) It's not unheard of for QBs to develop stronger arms in the NFL. Beyond body maturity, the improvement in consistent mechanics helps. Commonly cited examples are Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 12, 2025, 08:35:20 AMA few thoughts on Bobby's work.
First off, solid job by Bobby
1) I think it's worth noting that a few QB-needy teams passed on Jaxson Dart. The Giants were able to get him in the 20s, which would indicate that most NFL teams didn't see Dart as an elite prospect. I would guess the things that dinged him were not having elite arm strength (which is a big measure among NFL teams). I suspect the NFL overvalues that trait, as we have seen many a strong-armed QB get drafted only to crash and burn.
2) I am unsure of the conclusions we can draw from the way Bobby broke things down. I would need to see how other QB prospects looked when you broke out their games against good teams (or strong defenses) and weaker teams. Let's face it, every QB will feast on the weaker competition they face, even in the NFL. SO to take an unusual slice (only against the SEC) and then suggest that shows how Dart will do against NFL competition... I am not sure how sound that idea is because it hasn't been done before. Hell, I would suspect Cam Ward wouldn't look so good if you only took the handful of games against quality defenses.
3) I had heard early in the scouting process that Dart could get sloppy with his mechanics. This is what @Ed Vette alluded to in his post. If Dart cleans up his mechanics, his ceiling is what Bobby witnessed in the non-SEC games.
4) Dart is a young QB. He is only 21. He has time to get the grown-ass-man strength. Remember, we are comparing his throwing to many other prospects 2 or 3 years older than he is.
5) It's not unheard of for QBs to develop stronger arms in the NFL. Beyond body maturity, the improvement in consistent mechanics helps. Commonly cited examples are Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
It's good that he throws a catchable ball and places it where the Receiver can grab it in stride and get YAC. He layers his throws, and doesnt rifle the short and BLOS throws. He's going to need a tight spiral in the Meadowlands, and velocity is more important in the mid range routes and those across the field outside the numbers. Those are key routes in Daboll's Offense.
There are so many keys to the success of an NFL QB. Quick and good decision making, which Bobby gave him credit for is huge. It's a big difference between Dart and Shedeur. Notice a veteran in Russell Wilson who sets in Shotgun 5 yards back, drops one step, and with no wasted motion, gets the pass off the instant he sees it off the first two reads. After that, there isnt time to wait for a receiver to get open.
Dart's reads as he stated were deep to short. That's going to change in the NFL, to Pre-Snap determining if the Side should be read as planned or does he skip the first read and move on. Especially on the High-Low. One key that Dart struggled with was getting through his reads quickly and keeping his eyes downfield instead of at the Pass Rush at the Snap.
He's shown the ability to learn and improve and that's so important. If you saw the video of the Pass Rush breaking up the play, he would have been a sack victim or worse. He needed to see that, move up in the pocket earlier and either take off or get rid of the ball.
His ability to adjust to the speed of the game at this level is far more important than anything else at this point.
You're spot on Rich. A lot of teams passed on Dart. They didn't see it in him. He's got a lot to prove. As Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face".
It's good that Dart is facing Thibs, Burns, Carter, and Dex in practice. Against lesser pass rushes (pretty much the entire NFL), it'll feel like it's a game in slow motion
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 11, 2025, 05:31:02 PMThis isn't OlMiss. Totally different Offense, routes, progressions, and strategy. He will also be taught to get velocity and power from the ground. That trailing leg is causing the tailoff on the deep throws. And that deep throw percentage will come down. He won't have the time to throw that he did there.
Ed: On my first pass through this thread, I missed the bold part. Yes. That is the problem. I believe Daboll with play Dart against the first team in 7 on 7's as much as possible (without cheating Wilson out of reps) regardless of whether 1st-teamers are playing on the OL in order to have him fail as much as possible on the long ball. Eventually, he'll be receptive to hearing how to send the ball the same distance using his back leg to generate power and speed. Bob
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 12, 2025, 11:52:46 AMIt's good that Dart is facing Thibs, Burns, Carter, and Dex in practice. Against lesser pass rushes (pretty much the entire NFL), it'll feel like it's a game in slow motion
Not yet. He's facing mostly second and third teams. I suspect when he gets cocky, Dabs puts him against the ones and releases the hounds to bring him down to earth.
Quote from: Bob In PA on June 12, 2025, 12:51:04 PMEd: On my first pass through this thread, I missed the bold part. Yes. That is the problem. I believe Daboll with play Dart against the first team in 7 on 7's as much as possible (without cheating Wilson out of reps) regardless of whether 1st-teamers are playing on the OL in order to have him fail as much as possible on the long ball. Eventually, he'll be receptive to hearing how to send the ball the same distance using his back leg to generate power and speed. Bob
He throws with a baseball pitcher's motion to sling shot the ball. In my opinion, he releases the back leg too soon, and he doesn't get the full disconnect from his front leg to his hips. And... he loses the balance in his base. Bob, they may not deal with this until the offseason. If they even do at all.
Great thread... all comments were fantastic, I for one feel great about Dart. There is so much besides physical attributes that go into being a good qb. I think he has the mental and the physical. Hopefully he can put it together. I would really like to see him starting over Russ sooner than later. An NFL first rounder qb should be able to beat out a 36 year old who has not been good in 5 years. Just an opinion.
Quote from: Crypto Fareez on June 12, 2025, 01:38:26 PMGreat thread... all comments were fantastic, I for one feel great about Dart. There is so much besides physical attributes that go into being a good qb. I think he has the mental and the physical. Hopefully he can put it together. I would really like to see him starting over Russ sooner than later. An NFL first rounder qb should be able to beat out a 36 year old who has not been good in 5 years. Just an opinion.
Good points. However, being able to hang out with Wilson and Winston for a few months is invaluable. Learning the finer points of dealing with pressure, training, preparing before games, how to handle ones self with media and fans, etc. In a few months, he'll be getting a PhD in how an NFL QB handles life in the NFL as well as gets valuable tips about the game that he could only learn on his own through trial and error. He seems to have a very good head on his shoulders, so shouldn't get sidetracked with typical issues that derail a player. Perhaps it's his Mormon upbringing, but whatever it is...that's priceless when thrown to the wolves in front of millions of impatient coaches and sometimes unforgiving fans
Very good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.
Quote from: katkavage on June 12, 2025, 01:52:04 PMVery good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.
Since 2018 the late 1st early 2nd qbs have all panned out besides Levis and Lock. Love, Hurts, and Jackson have all been very successful. I don't think Levis and Lock were even thar big of busts considered they were drafted in the 2nd, Levis just lucked out with a new coaching staff and Lock was part of the Wilson Denver trade.
Quote from: katkavage on June 12, 2025, 01:52:04 PMVery good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.
It's true but it's a complex feature of how the NFL works. The qb's drafted high like DJ will get YEARS to work through kinks (maybe even a new contract like DJ or Blake Bortles) the team is in a position where they don't understand the sunk cost fallacy. They just keep praying and throwing assets at it hoping for a good resolution. Guys drafted later by a bad team basically need a series of events to happen to find success on that team. Just like guys drafted high even if they aren't good, they will get a second chance for usually pretty good money. Every team had the rated high and they will think can fix them. (Just like we did with that stripper back in 90's 🤣)
Also, they might have high player and coach or front office turnover, further stunting development. For the later drafted qb's who have made it have gone to solid, maybe even lights out rosters. Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Brock Purdy, Dak. That was part of their success. On a bad team, they would have never been drafted high enough to get a shot. I always felt the Giants fans on X were ridiculous for thinking a late round qb was going to turn the team around. Our roster is not strong like the recent examples of late round qb's who have succeeded.
Time will tell, I might be very negative about certain aspects of the Giants. But I feel like they nailed that pick. Dart has the intelligence, work ethic, and physical attributes to be in the #5-10 range of NFL qb's.
https://x.com/AlexWilsonESM/status/1933206103631839303?t=G1nrMN6ZZagMfqbS6cLmng&s=19
https://x.com/rydunleavy/status/1933478790107132179?t=G1nrMN6ZZagMfqbS6cLmng&s=19
This is what you want to hear/see imo that he has confidence, isn't scared to throw, wants a challenge, isn't worried about about difficult throws.