Big Blue Huddle

I just cannot get past his neck injuries. That is not going away. One unlucky hit and it might be career ending. I cannot have faith in a guy when I see that risk. We can rehash all the old arguments about his play vs OL/WR issues but to me valid though talent/football IQ concerns might be they are a distant second to his physical fragility.

FWIW I have Daniels bottom of my 4. He bulked up for pro-day but did not run/jump. He plays at/under 200. I think injuries will be inevitable in NFL. Also when you watch his tape the LSU receivers consistently have to throttle back on deep routes as he does not get the ball far enough fast enough. Their scheme had guys running wide open so it did not matter but with better coverage in NFL I think interceptions will result.

If Maye fell to 6 (or an affordable trade up to 4 or 5) and we had the chance to grab him to sit him/develop slowly he would be my choice.

Maye has every attribute you need but is less polished/well coached than rest of top 6. I am not comparing tools/style of play directly if I observe that he has a similar high ceiling and low floor scouting profile to Josh Allen. We often forget how much Allen divided opinion coming out. It could go either way as a pro for Maye but Daboll did OK with Allen so...

The Giants have done the same work on Nabers and Odunze as they are doing on the QBs and it is only different with Harrison in so far as he is not working out. The truth is the same leg work is going into 10 or 12 guys it is just the QBs get way more press. It would be News if we were not putting in the work on the QBs.

As Mighty notes elsewhere this draft has more QBs of interest and more teams in need than in the last couple of years. This inevitably increases media and fan interest.

That means more words. Lots of opinions. Lots of conflicting points of view. Complete contradictions (eg the Giants are simultaneously set at QB and done with our QB).

Each day more and more smoke rolls across the football universe, obscuring reality from view. There are articles, tweets, tv sound bites and pod casts/video hot takes supporting every opinion imaginable (and a few so wild they might better belong on a satirical late night comedy show).

We will get to see the reality in four weeks time. Until then we all have our opinion which is great providing we don't try to pass it off as fact. FWIW I think it is 90% likely we take either a QB or WR in R1 but I still see a 10% chance of a trade back with a CB being our pick...so watch us draft a tackle!

Eluemunor ranked 36/81 tackles last year
Runyan 21/63 guards

They are both solid NFL starters at those positions (and Eluemunor is at G also) and ranked far higher than those they might replace. The eye test of watching their film agrees. Solid guys. Importantly both are genuinely excited to be here. They will give us 100%.

Neither are elite but good O lines need five competent guys playing as a cohesive unit. We have a legitimate star in Thomas (but his injury impacted season ranked 18/81). If JMS can play closer to his draft we have 4 solid guys.

Then we have Neal, Ezeudu, McKethan, Stinnie, Schlottman, Nelson and assorted other leftovers to find a functional starting G/RT depending on where  Eluemunor slots. We could certainly throw another day 3 pick into the mix and even a camp cut to boost depth if the 3 2022 draftees do not raise their game.

So, fixed? No. Significantly better? Probably.

Nix 'problem' for the ex-scout/GM group in the media is that he is perceived to be limited by both his average arm strength and his average raw athleticism. He is also judged by many to be at or near his ceiling given his elongated college career.

He looks to me like he could do well in a classic west coast system or for Payton at Denver but would struggle in more vertical attacks or ones that ask their QB to do more off platform stuff. Like most guys he needs to find himself in the right situation. Teams that like eg the things Maye can make happen in chaos and are willing to work to improve his reward/risk ratio probably won't like Nix as much and vice versa.

His best case feels like a lower ceiling (more arm limited) version of the younger Tannehill to me and his worst case as a hang around the league forever savvy, functional Colt McCoy type but who knows how the key NFL evaluators see him? Six is much too rich for that IMO.

The Giants history drafting mid round QB prospects is hideous. If there is one thing I desperately do not want us to do in a draft where we have only six picks and roster holes everywhere is to spend a valuable pick on a R3 or 4 QB who will most likely compete with De Vito to make the roster year one when you can regularly find early career starters at lower valued positions in those rounds.

The UK residents on the forum feel much the same about American football=soccer players...

Son of Kirk Ferentz who has had a pretty good (understatement) college coaching career so we can hope coaching is in the blood!

Trading Herbert is a salary cap impossibility for the Chargers and for us (see Mighty, I do agree the cap is real and limits decisions in certain circumstances).

https://overthecap.com/player/justin-herbert/8746

The Giants will astonish everyone and make a smallish trade back (max 6 slots) to take CB1 rather than gutting two drafts trading up or simply sticking at 6 and taking QB4 or WR2/3. Bold enough?

It is smoke season. By and large I think the Giants ownership & GM play it fairly straight.

I think the messaging that Jones is the presumptive starting QB if fit but there is no barrier to adding someone to compete if the right opportunity presents is pretty much true. It does mean we will take a QB.

It certainly does not mean we will (or will not) take one in round one or on day two or day three. It does not tell us where it sits on our priority list or what else is on our priority list. We also do not have full control over our own destiny.

It is full on smoke season so it is best not to over analyse or over react to anything anyone says or to any new rumour. The truth will become reality in one month.

Personally, I am not trading up for QB4 even if they are QB2 on my Board unless I think I am getting a fair deal not a massive overpay.

Using the Rich Hill model 6, 70 gets 4, 138 and is still a slight overpay. I'd do it for that if QB4 is our QB2 but Minnesota have the assets to overpay severely so would Az accept?

Using the same model I'd rather try to get to 3 using 6, 70 (which is equal value) and throw in a 25 conditional third becomes second if they take half the snaps if I have to sweeten the deal. Again Minnesota's possible ability and willingness to over-pay makes it tough to pull off.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2024, 04:23:34 PMGreat find @Rosehill Jimmy

@londonblue Go to the 16:00 mark, former GM Randy Muller has an excellent talk about the salary cap.

I watched it Mighty. It adds nothing to the discussion we had. Yes, bills come due if you excessively defer contract expenses (he quotes New Orleans as I did) widely across your roster including older and non-core players and resorting to tricks like void years.

Big extensions for core players coming to the end of rookie contracts will always force a few older well paid players to be be cut or traded. Nobody (certainly not me) is saying the cap is not real...

However, in a time of rising cap for a team with few long-term contracts on the books any GM who winds up cap constrained 2-3 years down the line by adjusting one or two long term contracts of young, core players now (without a one off cap shock like Covid) is very bad at their job.

Every team utilises targeted restructures (even the ultra fiscally conservative Packers with the most vanilla contracts in the NFL). It only becomes a cap management issue if used excessively.

The Giants only path to being cap squeezed in eg 2026 is throwing around more contracts like Burns, not eg also adjusting Thomas' contract, particularly as Dex will be up for extension in 26 given his contract structure.

Bob, they don't have to be able to get inside Jones' head on the 'ghosts' they just have to perceive a problem. I have said several times on here down the years that perception becomes reality in decision making (unless you lean heavily into data and decision science to offset bias). If decision makers think Jones is (or even worry he might be) "seeing ghosts" then that will shape their behaviour.