Big Blue Huddle

When Carl Banks opined a week or so ago that Jones might be seeing ghosts in the pocket and be understandably worried for his health I took a couple of things from that:

1. Banks works for the team so if he is thinking this it is not a big leap to assume it is something being discussed internally at different levels within the Giants organisation up to and including HC and GM

2. If he is right, it probably cannot be fixed by fixing the OL. IF Jones has serious concerns about his neck he will know it only takes one unlucky play and will have jitters

It feels close to 100% certain that this year or next we will be drafting or trading or signing in FA somehow a new QB1. When, not if, IMO.

Broadening this to include Odunze (who has the best hands and catch radius of the three) we cannot complain if we pick a WR at 6.

Harrison is the best all round IMO with the most polished game and complete route tree. Odunze is the most different to what we have (a true, physical, contested balls X) and Nabers is the best separator and manufacturer of yards across the middle.

Whilst I agree with Philosophers that Nabers can play outside the reason I have him third on my personal WR wish list is how he plays outside and in. I think his strengths (separation, speed, body control) and current best routes overlap in a number of ways with our trio of Wandale, Slayton and Hyatt. Harrison and Odunze are more different/complementary out of the box so would arguably open up more play call options.

Having said that when we drafted Wandale, GM Schoen emphasised that for him and HC Daboll the ability to separate was a premium ability for WR. If that is their number one priority Nabers probably should be the guy.

Unless Maye or McCarthy fall to six (or an unlikely trade up) we will get to see what the Giants choose between at least two of them in a month or so.

I haven't voted because I cannot see the future.

I will say I think the price of the trade is actually fair to both sides in the context of other trades this year (Sneed, Allen) where older players/players with injury records basically got traded for a slight upgrade on the future compensatory pick they would have brought if they went as a FA. As a younger, healthy player Burns was worth a premium.

In the context of roster building it creates a possible strength on a team that arguably had no clear areas of strength and that is a fair start to any rebuild, but it is obviously insufficient in itself to compete.

That might translate as a 4 for the logic and execution but that is no guarantee of impact and production.

Somewhere from 20-60 but it only takes 1 team...

Nobody can fault Schoen's commitment to fixing the OL. We can only hope it works better this year than last.

It did not create a large favourable net points off turnovers margin (because our O sucked) so arguably it did not boost our record much. Our record was also hurt by a -50 sack differential, easily the worst in the league. How much? Make your own mind up.

I'd expect both the outlying turnover and sack differentials to normalise. Whether either change translates into a shift in our W-L record will depend on many other factors.

Keeping Hodgins is a depth move. He competes in camp. If he shows 2022 flashes then he makes the team and will get some targets. If he looks like the 2023 version of himself he might lose his roster slot to someone unheralded in camp who shines or a camp cut from a better team who offers eg more on ST. He sets the baseline for making the roster.

Just the 5 new OL in free agency so far to start, back-up or compete. Do you think Schoen saw it as a problem? 

Mighty:

No money moves in these restructures. Nor does cap move from one year to another. They do NOT "borrow from" future cap. They delay the cap accounting of guaranteed expenditure into future years consuming more of the future cap then to use less of our current cap now. It is not a semantic difference as it impacts how you structure contracts.

It also does not create issues unless it is done excessively and even then every year the worst abuser, New Orleans, get themselves under the cap. It is only ever even a theoretical issue if you are projected to be very cap constrained in the future. This is not a problem we currently have.

The AT and Dex contracts were structured specifically with restructures in mind. Schoen's preference for bigger contracts to be generally flat after year one is to allow him to do these restructures without creating excessive dead cap time bombs. It also avoids having to insert artificial balloon years or void years. He had to use these a bit with inherited contracts as he cleaned up the cap over the last two years but he is on record as not liking it.

The Lawrence and Thomas contracts are also structured to be renegotiated before they expire. That should be your expectation in 2026 and 2027 respectively. It will not be reactive to the cap situation when it happens (player health and form permitting), though it should help the cap, it will be part of a projected five year plan.

We had less cap this year in theory because of the Jones restructure post signing last year but it did not matter as Schoen built the wriggle room into Dex, AT to offset. So it will be next year with the possible Jones out and one or more of Burns, Runyan, Singletary being reworkable. The inflating cap also helps but the possibility of another Covid style shock keeps Schoen more toward the cautious end of GM practice on this which is good IMO.

If we find ourselves struggling for cap in eg 2026 it will be because Schoen has thrown around more Jones/Burns pay days next year not AT or Dex restructures this year. We get far more het up about these things than we should tbh.

Apologies for me going full accounting nerd here but a lot of the way this is spoken about by media and fans is unhelpful.

Neil

I think your phrasing is the wrong way to look at Mighty.

The Dex and AT contracts were always structured in a way that effectively planned for this. The above expected cap increase has only made it more obvious as even the increased future cap hits are still in line with the new market. Dex's contract is also clearly set up to renegotiate and extend prior to 2026 season.

Thomas's contract is also an easy adjust now but with his renegotiation window a year later before 2027 season. His intermittent injuries make him a slightly higher risk restructure and based on today's information he projects to be a bit less likely to get extended in 2027.

Why now is my Q? If we are just doing VSB stuff we could have done something smaller on a different contract and waited until draft time to rework Dex (see if Waller retires). Does it suggest we still have one FA signing for real $ in us?

VSB signings like this are come in to camp and compete. Wait for the guarantee $ to see if we expect to keep him (eg Olszewski) vs. will take a look (Mackenzie). Holmes has ST value so that, not NCB, is likely where he is fighting for a roster spot.

Quote from: Philosophers on March 19, 2024, 07:39:22 PMI think Hakeem Nicks was only 6'0" but because he was such a great ball catcher with his hands, his radius was enormous.  That matters more to me than just size.  How he catches the ball.

You will like Odunze then. Terrific hands.

Absolutely fine. He is a better complement to our existing receivers than Nabers (though I would not complain if it was him either) and would help whoever we field at QB and demand tight coverage that can create more space for others.

Despite the comment above he has perfectly respectable speed as well (a 4.4 not 4.6 guy) with size that makes him tough to jam. He only needs a half step given his big frame and strong hands. He had no issues in college and will not do with most NFL CB. He might not separate from the truly elite NFL QBs but he can still win with size and strength against most.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on March 19, 2024, 01:11:19 AMTyrod was 5.5MM for the last two years. Lock's contract is a push as a cap concern and completely acceptable for a backup QB with some starting experience.

Lock is both smaller $ than Tyrod last year and a smaller % of an increasing cap and pretty much slap bang in the middle of the back-up pay range ($3-8m with a couple of outliers). So, answering the question, no.

It is not just evaluation and development. The divergence of many college and NFL offences and more players coming out with fewer starts is making the transition harder.

But is is also evaluation and development.

Patience and low pressure helps. Mahomes sat almost a season. Love sat several. Purdy inherited a position with little expectation.

If you cannot sit them then having a powerful OL, running game and TE group to lean hard on helps eg Jackson (Purdy again).

Otherwise you have to accept bumps and stick the course eg Allen

If you have a really bad OL you need a miracle eg Burrow (but he is paying for his rookie miracles with wear and tear that may shorten his productive career).

Even really highly touted QBs like Lawrence, Tua are struggling to elevate their (now) fundamentally decent teams because the stuff that worked best for them in college is better defended in the NFL.

But for all that it is hard and getting harder, this is the job description for NFL front offices and coaches so it is hard to feel sorry for them.