Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 22, 2023, 07:18:03 AMDo you guys expect Daniel Jones to be an every week starter in your leagues who starts for a team in your league in week one?

Nope.  I dont see it.  In FFL, I dont think anyone will chance a QB with so little overall offensive productivity.  As you know, to win in FFL, you need a consistent 20 + point QB week in/out who also gets you a big week with 30+ points.

Is DJ capable of getting there with this new group of playmakers?  Yes but until he consistently performs, nobody will make that gamble.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 20, 2023, 01:51:49 PMYup it's not a slam dunk, but I like the situation. Mike Williams is capable of big games but he's inconsistent and gets hurt a lot. Allen is getting older and can't separate like he once could (not saying he's not still good, which he clearly is). Ekeler is obviously very good but a different type of target. If Johnston is a dynamic athlete who is a decent sized target, I could see Herbert building a rapport with him quickly.

I like the Flowers call a lot too. I wouldn't say I'm much higher on Johnston than Flowers. I think both could be additive as fantasy starters this year, potentially.

I've had some great pick ups over the years with rookies.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 20, 2023, 11:32:13 AMI like that call. He's on my watch list too.

As of right now Quentin Johnston is still my number one pick for rookie WRs, simply because I like the situation he is in and could see him developing a quick rapport with Herbert (who is in a contract year). Flowers is not far behind for me though, mainly for the reasons you said. Part of me was kind of hoping we'd get him. I think he'll be really good.

I agree though I am less high on Quentin Johnston than others.  I dont think he dominated enough in college given his physicals.  He's in a damn good situation in San Diego with Herbert.  Wonder if he becomes the new go to guy or it reverts still through Ekeler and Allen.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 18, 2023, 03:15:26 PMFair enough, can't argue with any of that.

I think if I am going to take a gamble on a rookie WR, it is going to be Zay Flowers.  Rashad Bateman has been only average.  OBJ is on the old side.  Lamar Jackson will look for a new WR and I like Flowers aggressiveness.  Think he starts Day 1.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 17, 2023, 06:55:20 AMI used to try to be sure to get two RBs in the first three rounds, as I felt like RB thinned out quickly and by the third or fourth round you were left with only committee backs. I won my league one year with that strategy, but more often than not I was dealing with injured RBs and then having to decide a flex guy each week among middling, so-so receivers.

In recent years I have pivoted my strategy to focusing more on WRs early, and it has paid off for the most part. I just feel like in PPR, a team that is built around not just two top WRs but actually three (flex) is always going to be in the mix. I like to make sure my fourth WR is good too, as I don't like having some stiff in there on bye weeks or if someone gets banged up.

Obviously, if I do the above, it means I'm going to be thin at RB, but I feel like RBs can be juggled a bit and if you draft a couple handcuff types to oft-injured starters (like Mattison) you are often in a decent position later in the season.

What I have also done though is draft a RB in the first round, and then not worry about that position again until much later. If you have one top RB, it's much easier to field an aggregate "good" two starters than it is if you don't even have one.

Unless I'm picking in the top two or three this year, that may be what I do as I really like Chubb.

BTW, anyone who thinks Garrett Wilson is going to be available much past the mid second round or so (or the equivalent in auction formats) is going to be in for a surprise when they do their drafts. I actually did a couple of mock drafts the last couple of days just to see where guys are going, and Wilson was gone in the top 17 or so both times.

If I am picking late in the first round like 11th or 12th, I could see just starting with St Brown and Wilson and going from there. I think both will have electrifying seasons.

I hear you on all that.  Makes sense.  Frankly, it's like the NFL Draft.  You have to go where it flows.  If there's a run of WRs, then maybe you have to pick a RB or vice versa. 

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 16, 2023, 07:27:29 PMI am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

Same with me though I draft both WRs and RBs.  A good RB consistently gets you 20 points nearly every week. 

Welcome to the talk PSU.  More the merrier.

Surprised none of us are banging on Waller of the Giants.  He may really become a security blanket for DJ.

St. Brown is so much better than I ever thought he'd be out of USC.  I had Jameson Williams last season and I will do it again.  He will be in his 2nd season following his ACL surgery.  Once his gambling penalty is iver, I expect him to dominate.  One Lions player already said he cant be covered by anyone on the team.

Trevor Lawrence is popular these days but I doubt he will generate 5 TDs from the run again and I dont think he runs as naturally as other QBs.  Plus his WRs dont wow me but his HC sure does.

Gibbs is going to be the feature back in Detroit replacing Swift.  With their passing game, I expect him to find holes

Quote from: Jclayton92 on July 14, 2023, 04:22:40 PMSt Brown in Detroit may be a legit #1 this year and miles sanders may get even more yards this year with a rookie in Carolina.

Also I am absolutely drafting Mingo the stud Wr that got drafted by Carolina as its really just him and Sanders in Carolina with Bryce Young so I think Mingo won't win ROTY but could be the reason Young does.

If Mingo is a day 1 starter that's a nice pick up as he'll slide through the draft.

Etienne just never seems to bust out.  I have loved him since Clemson and thought he'd be a great back immediately.  Injuries hurt obviously.

The team I may look hard at for players is Baltimore. A new OC should put some fuel in it and with the addition of Zay Flowers and OBJ, I've got to think Lamar lifts up with more prolific WRs.

Nick Chubb is a good call.  He certainly has the makings.  Are you worried about any wear and tear on him as he has been featured a fair bit?

What about Jonathan Taylor?  Such a stud yet Indy's passing game was so horrible defenses could focus in him.  Will Richardson have a good year as that will drive Taylor's success IMHO?

In 2022, I won my ESPN PPR League.  I loved my team.  Drafted well and made some very good in season pick ups.

Now it's 2023 and time to start thinking about players on our lists to keep an eye on or avoid.  We draft with a $200 budget so production per dollar is important.

QB

I am struggling this year to find an undervalued QB who may be on the rise.  One criteria I must have is that he must be able to run.  To win in a fantasy league you need a top 5 QB.  Jalen Hurts is on everyone's radar.  I had Justin Fields last year and he rewarded me late season.  He did it witht his feet more than his arm.  Will addition of DJ Moore really elevate his passing game?

RB - last year I finally drafted Austin Ekeler along with Miles Sanders.  I got great production out of my RBs.  I believe Bijan Robinson will get over drafted as Atlanta is much too dependent on a rushing game.  Does Saquon have enough left to be a RB1 with top 5 production (assuming he does not holdnout)?  Devin Achane is someone I am eyeing as a breakout player as I think Miami's passing game will open up opps for their rushing and nobody else on their roster impresses me enough as a RB.  Late season I picked up Isaiah Pacheco from the Chiefs and he was solid.  Tempted to keep an eye on him.

WR - I did not fall prey to spending a ton on Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase and instead got nice value with CeeDee Lamb and some up/down with Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson but scored huge with Christian Watson in season signing.  My prediction this season is that Garrett Wilson will be under drafted but will explode now that he has Rodgers throwing to him.

Who are you watching closely for 2023 fantasy season?

Quote from: Bob In PA on July 11, 2023, 06:22:20 AMPhil: I think I agree with all that, although back then I wasn't paying too much attention to the events.

I don't know much about early days of computers, but I have read one or two books about the rise of the Internet.

As for types of people, I agree that there is a "genius" in coming up with an idea and a completely different type of "genius" in knowing how to hire people who are better than yourself to implement that idea.

Bob

Bob - i've been reading and listening to Ray Dalio who founded the largest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates.  I think you should check him out as I think you'd like how his brain is wired.  Brilliant man.  He said his company really took off in the early 1980s when he changed his mindset of implementing his ideas which he thought then were the best ideas but upon reflection realized that probably a third of his ideas were bad ideas.  He went to what he called an "idea meritocracy" at his company.  Best idea no matter who comes up with it.  He's a guy worth listening to.

Quote from: Bob In PA on July 09, 2023, 02:44:41 PMPhil: IMO you excel at coming up with interesting perspectives, and that is one of them.

I have no idea whether it's true, but I think there is at least some evidence of it.

I see Musk as exhibiting some tyrannical qualities. And he appears to expect people to push themselves as hard as he pushes himself, but yours is a broad statement, and I believe I lack sufficient info to agree or disagree.

Bob

Bob - the first time I thought about that was around 1989 when I heard Mitch Kapor (creator of Lotus 1-2-3, the predecessor spreadsheet software to Microsoft Excel) say that once he came up with the idea of Lotus 1-2-3 and built it and got the company running from a high growth stage to stabilization, he realized he was the wrong person to be running at the company at that point as a different mindset needs to run companies once stabilized then in high growth.  I've thought about that from that point on that few people have the talent to do both. 

Musk is an idea guy and much less an operator.  He gets itchy to move on to next season idea.  His ideas are usually very good.  He has not yet proven to me that any one of his products is much better than his competition.  Tesla got off to a good start by being way ahead of other car companies in terms of battery technology but other car companies have caught up.  His actual car suffers from a host of mechanical issues that make it inferior to other companies like Mercedes.  Musk is too much of a narcissist.

Zuckerberg created 1 amazing product Facebook but has not been able to create a 2nd transformational product however he's been very smart to offset that by making brilliant acquisitions (Instagram, WhatsApp) and integrated them into one company effectively.  As smart as he is, he gets myopic and bets heavily (aka to the detriment of his company) on ideas others dont see such as the Metaverse.  Zuckerberg is classic anti-social nerd brain.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 07, 2023, 03:40:28 PMMusk gets kicked around for all of the reasons discussed, and fair enough, but the reality is that a lot of these guys are flawed. For example, people like to put Gates up on a pedestal but he's not some saint either. He cheated on his wife relentlessly and did god knows what in all his close personal associations and extensive dealings with Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted serial child rapist. If we are going after billionaires for less than savory behavior, he hardly deserves any sort of pass.

100% true.  Was only comparing based on love of media attention.

What anyone does privately is up to them.  I'm just dont want to see them always in the news.

What other previous wealthiest person in the world spends so much time offering up his opinion in the media?  Buffett, Gates, Arnault, Getty, etc never did.  People with a desire to seek a camera or microphone are IMHO flawed human beings.