Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 27, 2022, 01:15:47 PMMaybe that's because Mahomes' receivers get open?  They lost one of the top 3 receivers in the league and still have a receiving corps that is light-years better than the Giants'.

I wasn't arguing one way or another just giving examples on time to throw and how people use it.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 27, 2022, 01:02:23 PMFunny thing, I feel like I am one of the defenders of DJ, and I've probably made the strongest case for letting him (and Barkley) move on while they focus their CAP space on extending their stars like Dexter and Thomas, and picking up mid-pay-range FAs at lower value position like ILB and IOL, and maybe one big FA signing if there's someone they really like at one of our myriad positions of need.

I will give you that all day. Where most people try to act neutral you are neutral from what I've seen in discussions. Even though you and I have different perspectives on Jones, we both feel the same about the future of the team. Ie Should have traded Barkley, let Jones walk, acquire solid pieces at cheaper positions in FA and draft for premium.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 27, 2022, 12:51:00 PMSo it's not particularly relevant, since it includes the time he's running for his life.

In my opinion and from what I've read from professionals that use next Gen stats for clearer picture of what's going on with an offense "Time to Throw" doesn't give a ton of information on its own. Only when it's coupled with other next Gen stats like actual Air Yards, and intended air yards can you get a better picture.

For example:

Patrick mahomes has a bad time to throw stat but his air yards and intended air yards are way above average borderline really long, and his 20+ and 40+ plays are tops in the league then we can assume from the data that his time to throw is bad not because of the offensive line or anything he's doing but because he is holding the ball longer to allow for routes/plays to develop.

Daniel Jones Bad time to throw stat and his Inteded air yards, and actual air yards are extremely short, that he's holding the ball and not throwing it far when he does release suggests a disconnect in the offense. 

If that helps, but yeah time to throw doesn't offer much without context of other stats involved.

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Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 27, 2022, 09:15:05 AMYeah, I know, but that didn't stop some folks from throwing around the 5 seconds number.  And please clarify, if you will, is that 2.9 figure time to throw or time in the pocket?

Time to throw is the time from the snap until the ball leaves the Qbs hands.

They handicapped the offense to this point because of the Qb. Jones' numbers are on par with Allen's end of his 1st year and 2nd year. They didn't fully trust him at that point and it led to them throwing less. Allen attempted 461 passes his sophomore campaign and Jones is on track for that with similar overall production.

Quote from: GMenRF on December 26, 2022, 09:02:36 PMYes Cousins may be the better QB now, but going forward I like where DJ can continue to progress and develop.  He's been playing efficient offense and not necessarily QB stat friendly offense but that's what he's been asked to do.

Now that we started opening up the pass offense, DJ can only continue to get better.  Put better skill position WRs around him and how it with dynamically change our pass game.

Not to mention DJ has the running ability unlike Cousins.  Those deeper routes vs man to man with the DBs backed turned and DJ can pick up yards with his legs.

We've seen Cousins ceiling right now with the best WR in the league.  I'd go out on a limb that going forward DJ has a higher ceiling than Cousins if he continues in his development.

That's the problem though, no QB has ever started 4 years, had the same basic stats 4 years straight and then progressed after that 4th year into something more than he was already. It's never happened to my knowledge and if I remember correctly from talking with @kingm56 about the subject. So then you would be hoping Jones was a statical anamoly and took a leap in year 5 that didn't transpire at any time in the first four seasons. One or two games a season isn't flashing, that's probably luck. No coincidence his best two games this season are against 2 of the worst passing defenses in Jacksonville and Minnesota.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 26, 2022, 07:04:01 PMI did look at time to throw when folks were throwing 5 seconds around.  And saw that his time in the pocket was more like 2.5 seconds and the 5 seconds was due to how often he was running for his life. 

Obviously I don't 'know for sure' what he is being coached to do, - none of us do - but I think if Daboll was coaching him to avoid turnovers he would emphasize throwing the ball away, rather than taking sacks.  But that's just a surmise.

IAC that is all speculation, while the 40% increase in sacks is a hard number.  And I'm an empirical guy. 

I think Thomas is an excellent tackle but besides him I don't see anyone on our OL who is above average or, in most cases, even average when to comes to pass pro.  Neal has so far been a disappointment in that regard, particularly since his pass pro was supposed to be his strength, but he's just a rookie and can (hopefully) improve.  But the interior line is still a mess.

I'm copying this whole post and pasting it as a reply in the DJ thread to honor the mods wishes, plus it is a little off the topic of the thread

I've been keeping up with the next Gen stats all season and he's been right at 2.9 or right over 3.0 all season which for the most part was 30th or worse in the NFL. Recently he's done better and because of such he sits around 2.92 which probably 20th maybe 23rd. What it hasn't been is 5 seconds ever this season to my knowledge if that helps in your discussion.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on December 26, 2022, 01:48:32 PMIf I may interject a few thoughts.

Daboll and Kafka had DJ throw the ball 42 times against the Vikings, and 30 times against the Jaguars.

Why?

Because the Vikings have the 32nd ranked passing defense, and the Jaguars the 28th.

Daboll and Kafka are going to attack a teams weakness, this means they may run it 50 times a game, or throw it 40 times, depending on the opponent.

Daboll has mentioned this multiple times, during his media sessions.

One of the criteria that JS has said for the QB position is can he come through in the "Gotta have it moments".

The Giants were down by 8, with about 4 minutes left in the game. DJ drove them down the field and scored a TD, and also came through with a 2 point conversion.

I personally was looking to see if he could come through in a "Gotta have it moment" when the pressure was on and he did.

Two more games to go, let's see what happens

Daboll and Kafka like Jones on a schedule. When we win he typically throws it for 27-30 times for a 180 yards and 0-1 Tds. It's when he's asked to throw more than that is when we lose typically. Because him throwing less means the ground game is working and if the ground game isn't working we typically lose.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 25, 2022, 03:11:33 PMThe ranking of the 2019 offense is right about the same as this one.

2019: pts per game 18 - yards per game 23

2022: pts per game 20 - yards per game 20

I agree they're similar, even though I believe 2019 had better weapons, I think this staff is better.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 25, 2022, 02:43:58 PMYeah, these terms are horribly imprecise.  To me a franchise QB is a guy whose team doesn't think of replacing him.  Eli was rarely in the top ten of QBs but the Giants never thought seriously of replacing him until the end.  And, IMO he was elite for 2 playoff runs and the 2011 season.  But he was clearly a franchise QB, IMO.

The conundrum with DJ is that he is ranked 17 playing on an offense that is far below 17th.  And some blame him for not elevating the other players.  An elite QB can elevate a good offense to very good, and an average offense to a good offense, but I don't think the QB has been born who can elevate a bad offense to a very good offense.  I think DJ has elevated a bad offense to a slightly below offense.  And the question is, what could he elevate an average or good offense to.  And how would playing on such offenses change his ranking, because rankings are dynamic, not static.  He wouldn't be Mahomes in the KC offense, but I doubt he'd rank 17th.

Where would you rate the offense in 2019? The Barkley, Tete, Shep, Slayton, EE Offense with a line that was ranked like 19th. Do you think the production his rookie year is his ceiling, minus the fumbles, or could be his average yearly production with a stabilized offense?

In Today NFL I think you need an elite QB on a rookie deal and a solid team to compete for super bowls. The importance of the rookie deal for the Qb is to allow you to build properly while the Qb grows.

I juat haven't seen any team thrive resigning a top 12-20 QB at a premium. It hasn't worked out in any capacity for the team that signed the QB. So is Jones supposed to be the exception to the rule? I'm all for us signing him for a year maybe two, but anything beyond that cripples the front office to actually build a proper team.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on December 25, 2022, 10:34:31 AMWe know Hurts is a much better athlete and runner than Minshew, so to say Minshew is equal is to say he's a significantly better passer.

I like Minshew a lot and think he's better than some starters in this league, and I admit that up until this season I wasn't very high on Hurts, but I don't think I'm comfortable saying Minshew is a distinctly better passer than Hurts. Minshew is very efficient and accurate, but his arm is pretty weak.

Overall I would say that the gap probably isn't as big as many think, but I personally would not agree that there is zero drop-off. And I say that coming from a place where I have always liked Minshew and think he's a solid QB.

Look at all the Free Agent Qbs this offseason and the stats they've put up this season. Someone's going to pay White, Brissett, Dalton, Minshew, Geno, Heinecke, and especially Darnold after the last 4 games he's had. All those Qbs have played good football this year.

Quote from: todge on December 24, 2022, 05:02:07 PMWell ... when you don't like a certain player - no matter what he does is perceived in a negative light. There are several guys here who will always focus on the negative. You just have to accept their obvious bias.

After Jones is signed to an extension, the negativity will continue. Jones had a great game today - yet the naysayers will point to the  one pick (as if other QBs don't throw picks) . They will also point out every missed pass (as if other QBs don't throw errant passes).

It is what it is and it's never going to change.


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Lol coming from a guy that tells fairy tales.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 24, 2022, 04:50:31 PMIt's funny how that works

What are you talking about rich? See thats the problem with you, I gave Jones credit while still admitting he made mistakes but in your eyes he's perfect.. nothing can be said wrong about him. When someone tries to give him credit you take it to the extreme. Guess that's neutral in 2022.