Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Jclayton92 on March 24, 2024, 02:00:00 PMI think without a doubt that was a disaster picking Toney but for me it was before that in 2019.

Reaching for Jones in 2019 instead of bolstering both lines and waiting on 2020 which was the best draft class for Qbs since Eli's class was the defining mistake of this past 10 years.

J: That's on my top-10 list of recent disasters but much lower.

We don't know who they would have drafted instead of Jones. The next five PLAYERS picked were Josh Allen, TJ Hockenson, Ed Oliver, Devin Bush, Jonah Williams. The next five LINEMEN were Jonah Williams (obviously), Chris Lindstrom, Garrett Bradbury, Andre Dillard and Tytus Howard.

I'd bet fewer than five people here ever heard of most of those O-linemen (mainly because, except for Lindstrom, they all proved to be not-so-good. IMO,  the odds of hitting on an OL instead of Jones were IMO slim-to-none.

Concerning what a talentless 1st-round 2019 was... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-regrading-2019-nfl-draft

IMO this year could turn out to be a repeat of 2019 (for QB's, at least). There's a good chance if they pick a QB, he'll turn out to be not worth spending a high 1st-rounder.

You can look at it as just one error, but I see it as three. Tic Tac Doh!!!   

Quote from: londonblue on March 24, 2024, 12:29:29 PMBob, they don't have to be able to get inside Jones' head on the 'ghosts' they just have to perceive a problem. I have said several times on here down the years that perception becomes reality in decision making (unless you lean heavily into data and decision science to offset bias). If decision makers think Jones is (or even worry he might be) "seeing ghosts" then that will shape their behaviour.

london: Whether the team perceives Jones to be "seeing ghosts" may have already been decided (in the negative). I don't believe everything Schoen says, but he is absolutely insistent than Jones is their starting QB next year (absent a health issue). He COULD be lying (most likely reason would be draft-related deception) but I don't believe it matters at Pick Six as much as if the Giants had Pick Two, Three or Four. Teams above them likely won't be affected, and there just aren't more than three QB's this year whom the consensus views as high first-round QB's.  Bob

Jimmy: In some senses, Harrison IS third-"best" but the question is who can start NOW and make a difference NOW and (most importantly) not bust.  To answer my own question.... third-best is Nabers. He has the most question marks and IMO is most likely of the three to bust.  The only thing that would make Odunze superior to Harrison FOR THE GIANTS, IMO, is if the team felt his style of play was more suited to the Giants' needs than Harrison (and if he is more likely than Harrison to make life easier for Jones, Lock and whoever the third QB turns out to be). That is not an impossibility. They could "like" Odunze better for the Giants but IMO Harrison will have and is most likely to have the greatest career of the three WR's.  Bob

Quote from: londonblue on March 24, 2024, 11:49:21 AMWhen Carl Banks opined a week or so ago that Jones might be seeing ghosts in the pocket and be understandably worried for his health I took a couple of things from that:

1. Banks works for the team so if he is thinking this it is not a big leap to assume it is something being discussed internally at different levels within the Giants organisation up to and including HC and GM

2. If he is right, it probably cannot be fixed by fixing the OL. IF Jones has serious concerns about his neck he will know it only takes one unlucky play and will have jitters

It feels close to 100% certain that this year or next we will be drafting or trading or signing in FA somehow a new QB1. When, not if, IMO.

london: IMO yours is the best (and ONLY) argument for giving up on Jones and for not blaming the OL. But I don't know if the coaches can get inside Jones' head to see WHETHER he's seeing ghosts, so I rule out number 1 in your post. But the second reason given COULD be the problem (assuming there is a problem) and that alone would be enough reason for the team to "start over" at QB. The Giants' selections in this year's draft will likely (and conclusively) settle this issue for once and for all. Bob

Quote from: Jclayton92 on March 24, 2024, 11:51:08 AMI think Odunze is the guy.

J: He may turn out to be the guy, but IMO it won't happen if they want a WR (rather than a QB) and Harrison is there.  As for Nabers vs. Odunze (assuming Harrison is gone and both of them are still available) it will and should depend on which guy the Giants believe is better suited to the system as well as which one provides them with the most skills none of the other current WR's possess. Bob

Quote from: londonblue on March 24, 2024, 11:36:43 AMHarrison is the best all round IMO with the most polished game and complete route tree. Odunze is the most different to what we have (a true, physical, contested balls X) and Nabers is the best separator and manufacturer of yards across the middle.

london: I can't agree with the bold part, although I can't disagree either (but I strongly suspect his ability to separate will proven to be vastly over-rated), because college DB's almost always set up against Nabers 8-to-10  yards from the line of scrimmage.

Even when they started near the line, they never contacted him but almost immediately began back-peddling when the ball was snapped. My point is that we don't know how NFL "bullying" CB's will affect Nabers' overall play, his concentration, timing, and route-running precision.

I agree Nabers was a separation wizard in college, but the issue of whether he'll be able to separate in the NFL is far from established. The team drafting him IMO will be taking a huge risk that he will not be able to do it as well as he did in college, or will be come frustrated while learning to do so.

Bob

Quote from: Hadron on March 24, 2024, 11:11:01 AMThere were quite a bit of times last season where Jones had an opportunity to hold the balls for a few ticks longer before taking a downfield shot. Being battered over the years likely impacted that ability.

I agree with Lombardi: the team needs to admit that Jones is not the solution.

Hadron: I agree with that, but check out a few plays (or series) BEFORE those plays and you'll see that not holding the ball was immediately preceded by OL breakdowns, sacks, necessity to scramble, or a WR running the wrong route.

It's almost impossible to trust your OL on the sixth play when plays one through five have been disastrous. IMO there's no confidence in the OL on the plays you're referring to because of what the OL previously did in the same game or series.

Defenses like the Eagles know this, so they go all-out early in games cause Jones to not trust his OL. IMO not even the best QB's in the league could avoid losing confidence in the Giants' OL, so (although I don't think he's among the best in the league) I also don't believe Jones' problems are PRIMARILY his fault, and I know for a fact that the fault is shared.

IMO the far greater share is due to the OL's usually-consistent failure (even in games where Giants win) to do their jobs, and I believe Schoen/Daboll agree. 

Bob

Quote from: Philosophers on March 24, 2024, 10:56:19 AMBob - Nabers is 6'0" who is a hands catcher so he plays big.

Phil: I agree, but check out his highlight reel. They also played him in the slot. I don't know if that was to get him away from the opponent's top CB or for another reason. In any event, it's not necessarily a bad thing because it helps to be versatile and to know how to "operate" from all possible starting positions. Still, I have not heard one expert say Habers is closer that Harrison to a prototype "X" receiver. There may be some, but I've not seen them. Bob

Quote from: TONKA56 on March 24, 2024, 10:47:44 AMDaVonta Smith? Meh.I'd rather have Parsons anyway.

Tonka: I can't disagree with that, but the point is that they made BOTH mistakes at once, and then compounded their errors with more errors. It was truly disastrous, not only in terms of personnel, but also how it likely IMO altered the career of Daniel Jones. Bob

Quote from: TONKA56 on March 24, 2024, 10:44:28 AMFor me it's a wash between not drafting Aaron Donald and not drafting Micah Parsons.

Tonka: Good one. My only comment is that Donald truly is/was "too small" to play the position. That would have been a tough pick to explain to the NY/NJ media, IMO. Of course, it turned out to be a genius move for the team who took him, but other teams also passed on Donald, one of the truly great players of all time. Bob

IMO the worst thing that happened to the Giants in the past 10 years is that they allowed the Eagles to trade up one draft spot ahead of them and take DaVonta Smith. Not only did they not get a true "can't-miss" WR they then agreed w/the Bears to trade down (apparently prioritizing WR over taking the best player available... Micah Parsons) and compounded that error by taking a loser WR (Toney) with the Bears' pick. IMO trading up one spot last year to be certain to obtain Banks was an ADMISSION of the magnitude of the error they made in 2021 by not trading up one spot to ensure they got Smith.

If anyone can cite a worse move or occurrence in the past 10 years, please feel free to do so (level of difficulty: easy). lol   

If anyone disagrees that last year's trading up one spot was completely unrelated to their failure to do so in 2021, please make your counter-argument (level of difficulty: not so easy).

Bob

Quote from: katkavage on March 24, 2024, 10:16:06 AMI keep harping here about next year. The best approach is to not consider 2024 as anything more than a stepping stone to 2025. They will need a QB one way or the other, this year or next. Though these receivers seem extremely talented, receivers are much easier to find than QBs. And grabbing a QB next year and unless he's CJ Stroud level, delays the rebuild even longer.

kat: You're right about all of that. If the Eagles could find a way to get AJ Brown, I suppose Schoen can find a way to do the same, somewhere, some time soon. But one problem with getting the QB first is the size of Jones' contract.  Another is that unless they truly believe Hyatt will "step up" this year, they have never had even a potential elite WR for many years. To me, the WR should come first if it's Harrison.  If they can't get him then I'd go for extra 2024 picks (trade down if possible) rather than drafting a QB at Pick Six, but if they do go for a QB without trading down I'll be ok with it because it would likely mean they couldn't get Harrison AND they really like the QB they'd be drafting. It will be very interesting to see what they do. I just hope they don't have to "settle" for trading down. Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 24, 2024, 09:50:10 AMBob,


I  agree about your point about the O-line Jones worked with.   Hard to "calmly step up into the pocket" when there are already two defenders there waiting to great you.

With Mike, I find his commentary is a combination of what he hears and what he sees from his own study.  I think the Drake May comments were heard.   In another segment, Mike talks about how teams really come away liking JJ.   That was obviously heard and it's what he was referring to when he talked about the intangibles.

Rich: I forgot about his mention of May... you're right. Bob

Quote from: Philosophers on March 24, 2024, 10:05:45 AMI think Brian Hartline at Ohio St is the best college WR coach in the country.  He complemented Harrison's father perfectly in Junior's development.  Junior is a Day 1 starting WR with lethality.  Nabers will start Day 1 but he and a QB probably wont get on the same page maybe til mid-season.  He wont run the NFL quality routes exactly the way the QB needs.  He'll make some big plays early but I doubt he will early on be a volume WR.

Phil: I agree but the Giants DO have Hyatt who (hopefully) will take a step up next season, both in terms of his own performance but also in terms of how much Jones, Lock and ? (if any) will trust him and focus on him. Yet one more thing (not mentioned so far) about Harrison over Nabers is that Harrison is an "X" while Nabers is "too small" for that job, IMO. Bob