Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: JoeP on March 19, 2017, 10:25:28 AM
Best Player Available

These three words get tossed around endlessly. What do they mean to you, exactly?

What factors do you use, or not use, to determine who you think is the BPA?

Excellent question because I'm sure it means different things to different people. For me, it's all about each team's private and highly secretive grading system. And the formula most definitely has a calculated "weight factor" for each position, the highest being a QB, the lowest a punter, long snapper, gunner, etc. That "weighting factor" is probably similar across the board for all teams, but each team weighs positions a little differently and their weighting factors vary from team to team.

The NFL (well, whoever runs NFL.com anyway) uses a precise grading system, but I believe without a positional weighting formula. Example, they grade out Myles Garrett as a 7.63 out of a perfect score of 8.0. I'm not sure any player has ever graded out as 8.0, but that's neither here nor there.  Their (NFL.com) grading system differs from individual teams' grading system so every team evaluates players differently using their own criteria and no one outside the trusted inside team knows what that is or how the formula works.

This is how the "weighting factor" works. Take a player like Malik Hooker, a safety that grades out as 6.7 (NFL.com rating) as compared to Mike Williams, a WR who grades out as 6.3. If a team has a weighting factor for each position such as Safety (.65) and WR (.79), the weighting factor will actually give Williams a higher grade than Hooker when the numbers are crunched.

No one knows what the weighting factor for each position is for individual teams. I suspect the Giants have a weighting factor for LB's just a bump ahead of a punter, but that's neither here nor there. I just don't think the Giants are as enamored with LBs as they are with defensive linemen (in particular: edge rushers, as well as corner backs, and wide receivers. My insight to this is based on previous drafts.

Now in some cases, the Giants will take a player that grades out slightly less than another player (even after the weighting factor is applied) if there is a specific hole in their team that desperately needs to be filled. But they won't take a TE with a grade of 5.85 over a DE with a grade of 6.1. However, they might take an OT with a grade of 5.93 over a safety with a 6.12 grade.

All this xxxx gets sorted out in the war room on draft day. Months of hard work by scouts and other personnel have carefully graded several hundred players that will be available in the draft and they have a number attached (and it probably isn't 1-8 like NFL.com, but we'll never know. I doubt there is much disagreement in the war room when a player clearly grades out higher than the next in line and I'm sure when the Giants saw Collins still on the board on day two a couple of years ago, they were looking at a safety with a grade in the mid-7s (assuming NFL.com's grading system) and the next player on their list was in the high-5's or low 6's and it was a no-brainer to trade up to get him, especially considering the Giants also were in desperate need of a safety.

Regardless - that is how I see it. The "BPA" the Giants pick might not be the actual BPA, but is the highest rated player on their particular board and even though they will say that "need" is not a factor, it is ALWAYS a factor and may even be a secondary weighting factor in their grading formula. "Need" might not be enough to persuade them to pull the trigger, but "need" will be in the discussion in the war room, you can guarantee that. We need a good OT this year, but if Myles Garrett is available (this is purely hypothetical and will never happen) and the Giants have to pick between him and Ramczyk, Garrett would end up wearing Blue and having a helmet with the letters "NY" on them.

My guess is that the Giants' are just doing their due diligence and checking out all the players who are highly rated. And sometimes they're actually interested in another player on the team and sometimes it might be a smokescreen to screw with the heads of other teams to lead them astray of their real intentions come draft day. In the grand scheme of things, I don't think it means much.

Quote from: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 17, 2017, 06:06:42 AM
I think Jake Butt has torn ACLs in both knees.  Yikes!  Might need a fact check there.  Its definitely looking like defense is more likely, Im thinking Jordan Willis or Hasaan Reddick, or after the visit, Cunningham.  Taco seems to lack athleticism for a 4-3 DE.

Depending on who your read, his knees are or are not and issue. The Giants brought him in (as well as Bucky Hodges). I just have this gut feeling that the Giants will take him in the 3rd round. Doesn't mean anything, just this premonition that sticks in the back of my head and won't go away.

As an addendum to my previous post (boast)...one guess that I can throw out there is that I believe when the dust settles on day 2 of the draft, Jake Butt will be a Giant. Just a gut feeling. If right, we won't be taking a TE in the first round.

I have to brag about last year's prognostication. I picked Apple as the Giants' pick a couple of weeks before the draft. I was skewered on another board and ridiculed beyond belief. I believe I am the only person on any board that thought the Giants were going to take Apple.

What I can't brag about, is that is about the ONLY pick in round one that I got right. I wanted Jack Conklin, but surmised he would be off the board and I was right, so there's that.

This year I don't have a gut feel for where the Giants will go with their first pick. I will throw my guess out there in the weeks leading up to the draft.

Quote from: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 05:16:59 PM
maybe all we need to do is to draft the people who draft for the Patriots 

From all I can tell (for what it's worth), it's all about Belichick and his football mind developing strategies to beat other teams. He studies all the competition and designs plans that will give him the tools to exploit the "enemy". So instead of looking for chess pieces that are rated high according to analysts and fans, he looks for a specific kind of player for the coming season's grand plan. And every year it's different. He simply understands how to exploit other teams and build a team with specific kinds of players who fit his secret strategy buried deep in the back of his head. He's super competitive and it's like he's playing 3D chess while the rest of us are studying a 2D chess board wondering how to put the highest rated player in each spot. Or maybe a better analogy is we play checkers while he's playing chess.

Bottom line: I don't think it's possible to figure out BB's drafting strategy or any part of his strategy to win that next Super Bowl. It gave me great pleasure to see him refuse to show the class to shake hands with TC and sulk off the field in his hoodie the first time a Coughlin led team beat his ass 

Quote from: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 04:14:40 PM
I don't know how anyone could see it any other way.....

One way it could be seen is if the Giants tire of the cat and mouse game and cut loose Hankins and JPP. Then the defensive line becomes vitally important to restock with players who can play soon. Even if we end up signing both, I wouldn't be a bit surprised we'd pick up a d-lineman at some point in the first 3 rounds.

I'm sure the Giants will address the O-line in the first three rounds, but I wouldn't get my hopes up that the player drafted will be playing a whole lot in the first year or two. At best, they get some playing time throughout the season to get a taste of the NFL. I don't think there are game changing linemen in this draft that will beat out Jerry or even Fluker. We definitely need to be grooming some players for depth and the future, but I don't think we are going to be able to upgrade the line to the top of the heap with this draft. Conklin and Tunsil were game changers and what I wouldn't do to find another Conklin in this year's draft. But the draft is a crap shoot and even more so with offensive linemen. Maybe we'll strike gold this year and hit big on a lineman who can automatically give the line a big bump in protecting Eli as well as blowing open holes for our ground game.

I read the article in the other thread, but I think the subject matter (Tackle vs. Guard) should have it's own thread.

Anyway, there's been comments on other threads about tackles washing out, and finding playing guard working out for them. On the other hand, our own Fluker graded out much better as a tackle than after he moved to guard.

I think (for what it's worth) that a LT has to be more athletic...or at least more nimble on his feet and as someone pointed out earlier, be a dancer. And the physical makeup of a player does tend to send a player to a pre-chosen position such as "short arms" (the "T-Rex Syndrome") or shorter height is automatically slated for guard. I also think finding hidden gems in a draft for a guard can be found in the list of centers. Hence, I am high on Pat Elflein out of Ohio State for a 2nd day pick. Unless some team is looking specifically for a center, he should be available after round one. I believe a center already has a feel for the guard position as center plays like a guard once the ball is hiked. I tend to think Elflein might be better than Lamp, yet Lamp will be drafted at least a round earlier that Elflein.

Quote from: Vette on March 15, 2017, 09:41:12 AM
Does anyone here know for sure what is factored into the grade system the Giants use to grade a player?

I would imagine that's a top secret among the insiders. I'm sure there's a bunch of scouts and executives sitting around a conference table with multiple TV screens and I-Pads as they go over every detail of a player. How they rank them is anybody's guess. I think they had Collins rated very high when they traded up to get him. I suspect they had Flowers and Collins rated about the same and took Flowers because it was a big need. When Collins was still on the board the next day, they pulled the trigger and what a great move it was. I can't imagine them trading up unless they had a shot at a player who was ranked way higher than any player on the board and knew he'd never be there when their turn came back around.

I think that the only time the Giants burn a first on a "need" position, is when there is a tie between a couple or more players on the top of their board and since it's a toss up, they go with the need pick. Otherwise, they'll stick to the numerical rating they have on players. Reese is damn good the first two days. Maybe he was a little off when he grabbed Bromely on day two, but other than that, he usually hits good players. And maybe Bromley starts to show he's starter material this year. Who knows what he's done during the off season.

I would certainly think that a TE is still on the table in the 1st round (assuming the top studs were still there). Last year we had DRC and spent a fortune on Jackrabbit and had two very solid CBs. And then we drafted a top CB in round 1. That should be all you have to know about how the FO thinks. They are going to take the top player on their board period. If it happens to be a TE, they'll grab him. If they have a DT or DE or CB ranked highest - that's where they will go.

I have a gut feeling that the Giants are looking at a stud player in the first and it doesn't necessarily mean it's a TE (just my opinion), but they could be looking at picking up a Bucky Hodges or Jake Butt on day two. Time will tell of course. Regardless - I have to think the Giants will go with their own board rankings and take the guy at the top of their board.

I agree with being "too tall" and that is the reason he will be on the board later in the draft, but I also think it has a lot to do with a player's frame. A player built like the "Hulk" is better than a player built like Kareem Abdul Jabar. It's all about proportional distribution in both frame and mass. Staying low with good knee bend is essential whether a person is 6' or 6'10". It might be easier for short guys to stay low, but they bring other issues to the table. If Skipper was 3 inches shorter, he'd be in the talks for going in the front half of the draft. Basically, the length of an average pinky finger.

Regardless, some analysts are very high on him and as we all know, there are no "sure things" in the draft except for a handful of studs that will be off the board on day one - and even many of those will not pan out to be what the team that drafted them hoped for. At the end of the draft, you reach....and if lucky, a few good ones fall through the cracks. I like Skipper, but would not want to see a high draft pick burned on him.

Quote from: UKGiantsFan on March 12, 2017, 06:45:25 AM
I guess I won't be winning a prize for guessing who Rich's draft crush is this year!! 

If we take Dawkins hopefully it works out better than the last time a Rich favourite was tabbed. That was DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa and right now we should be drafting to replace him

FWIW I wouldn't rule out Lamp as our 1st round pick. He proved capable of handling Alabama's best players one on one, is very strong, super athletic and his arms are longer than those of perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas. Will he pass the Giants filters at Tackle? Possibly not but I get the feeling someone will give him a shot to play there.

I've thought the same thing about Lamp. There aren't a ton of gems to be had in this draft for the offensive line - Lamp is one of them IMO.

Not a sleeper by any means, but probably a guy who could be had at the back end of the draft is offensive tackle Dan Skipper. He's friggin huge! 6'10" 310 lbs and has potential. He would need to be coached up to play at the NFL level, but that pretty much defines every OT prospect. He would not be a huge risk and possibly end up being a steal in the 5th or 6th round. Like every prospect - no one knows for sure if they will pan out and after the first two or three picks, you take risks and hope they pan out.

Regardless, I kinda like the thought of Skipper on the team.

I would love to have Dawkins on the Giants' team. I have to believe that the front office and scouts are doing their due diligence on him and have him on their board somewhere.

This is going to be an interesting draft this year as so many quality players are going to sift through the cracks. There will be damn good players on the board on day 3 as well. And I have to believe the Giants are looking at offensive players in the first half of the draft. Dawkins could very well end up in blue.

I too am on board with McCaffrey, but expect the unexpected from the Giants. I was a lone prognosticator last year when I actually predicted that we would go with Apple in the first....and I did so just because the Giants always do what isn't expected. I took a lot of heat and ridicule for making my prediction known.

With that said, I would be happy if the Giants took Dawkins as I have a lot of faith in Reese's picks in the first couple of rounds. He seems to be zeroed in on rounds 1 and 2...as good as anyone in the league. It's afterwards that he scares me even though I think he hit on all rounds last year.

The one guy who would play on the O-line that I have my eye on is Pat Elflein. He might fall through the cracks because he's listed as the top center on most analysts' boards rather than a guard, even though he is better suited as a guard and backup center. Unless a team is desperate for a center, he's likely to fall to the 2nd round. I think he'd be a very safe pick with little risk of him washing out. He wouldn't become an OT though, but with a draft filled with great players in all defensive positions and heavy in TE's and RB's, the pickins is slight in the offensive line area and the top rated seem to come with a significant amount of risk.

Anyway, here's his write up on NFL.com:


Pat Elflein (6'3", 303 lbs, 33 1/4" arms, 9 3/4" hands)

Overview

Elflein (pronounced ELF-line) naturally wanted to be a Buckeye after growing up in Pickerington, Ohio, a suburb of Columbus. The all-state pick (and four-year wrestler) was certainly coveted by Ohio State, as well. He didn't get on the field much in his first two years (redshirted in 2012, reserve with one start in 2013), but then met his promise starting as a sophomore. Elflein earned the first of his three first-team All-Big Ten seasons that year, starting three times at left guard and 12 on the right side. In 2015, he received second-team Associated Press All-American status while dominating at right guard in every game. The team needed him to move to center as a senior, and his play resulted in first-team All-American recognition from various media outlets.

Analysis

Strengths Thick lower body. Team captain renown for his outrageous work ethic. Strong leadership characteristics both verbally and by example. Looks for work when uncovered. Smartly alters assignment based on flow of the defense. Always under control in his movements. Patient pull blocker who stalks his target rather than rushing the block. Plus play strength and wrestling background gives him a leg up in hand-to-hand combat against big dogs inside. Quick to roll hips into block after first contact. Drives feet through contact and uses strong hands to stick like glue to the block. Reliable and effective in down blocks. Finisher looking to make a statement at the end of the play. Has mental part down. Recognizes twisting defensive tackles and greets them with aggressiveness. Hand placement is excellent. Strikes with upward blows squarely into the strike zone as run blocker. Pass-pro punch is compact with some heat behind it. Can anchor against bull rush. Winning history on high-caliber team. Versatile; proficient and successful at both center and guard.


Weaknesses

Not a ballerina with his feet. Footwork can be a little labored at times for the center position. Marginal twitch with short-area reaction time that is just average. A bit of a straight-line player in space. Struggles to come off initial block and body up against delayed, A-gap blitzers. Understands leverage but hip stiffness causes pad level to rise as play rolls along. Anticipates early bull rush and will drop an early anchor. Feet become heavy and limited, allowing athletic opponents to work around his edge and into backfield. Not always first with his hands. Gives away his chest to interior defenders with good hand quickness.

Sources Tell Us "You are getting a guy who will be great for your locker room and will get the rest of the offensive line on board. I think he could have the same fast impact on a team's running game that Zach Martin had in Dallas. Safe draft pick to me." -- NFC West scout

NFL Comparison Travis Frederick

Bottom Line

Elflein is a smart, tireless worker with a winning background and experience at all three interior offensive line spots. While his feet are just average, his core strength and wrestling background could make him a favorite of teams looking for more strength at the center position. Elflein will have occasional issues in pass protection, but his strength as a run blocker and ability to play with excellent hands and plus body control should make him one of the first interior linemen to come off the draft board.