Big Blue Huddle

I'm curious if attitudes on this have changed at all in the past couple of weeks.

I am curious if anyone here has a strong view on whether inflation is here to stay in the US, or if it's just a temporary phenomenon.

Plenty of respected economists, including the Secretary of the Treasury and the majority of members of the Fed, as well as a number of prominent Wall St economists, think it is temporary. The argument for it being temporary is basically that supply chains got badly disrupted by Covid, and they have not been able to replenish quickly enough to keep up with the sharp surge in demand of a reopening economy and pent up spending impulses by consumers who were previously locked down and not having as many things to spend their money on. The enormous stimulus pumped into the economy by the government, coupled with interest rates pinned at zero, have only further fueled this demand. But once the supply chains normalize again, and once the extra covid relief aid provisions for people run out, then prices will come down again. That is the argument for it being temporary.

Why would it be more than temporary? Because the Fed clearly seems hell-bent on keeping monetary conditions easy for a long time. This will encourage borrowing and dissuade savings. It will keep asset prices high and debase the currency. An unwillingness to raise interest rates when growth rates and expectations clearly call for higher rates is what classically leads to inflation. There is an argument that these forces are not just temporary but that they are here to stay. Even if the Fed raises rates in a year or so, how quickly will they raise them? The people in charge are extremely dovish, and that seems unlikely to change anytime soon. Based on their rhetoric and their past behavior, it is very hard to envision a scenario where they raise rates very aggressively and quickly.

If inflation gets really bad, then that will surely hurt people and hurt the markets. However some moderate inflation, particularly if it includes wages, won't be the end of the world.

I tend to think that we will see the current pace of inflation level off in a quarter or two, but I don't think it will completely disappear. I think it will remain elevated and above the rate of where it was before the pandemic, and I expect that to coninue for a good long while, not just a couple of quarters. And we'll just have to live with it.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Curious to hear other views.

Ballsy, if a little bit foolish.

Incredible.

The natural high you would get from that would make Tony Montana look like an 84 year old librarian in comparison.

Buy as much Bitcoin as you can possibly get your hands on in 2010. Take profit in April of 2021.

The end.

I feel like every generation longs for the old days and thinks the current generation is lazy, entitled, superficial, or otherwise somehow warped. Look at how older people in the 60s hated hippies. Then the hippie types resented yuppies and baby boomers in the 80s and gen x types in the 90s. Now people in their 40s and 50s today resent entitled millennials. And so on and so on. I think this will continue and in 2050 people will miss today's society and way of life. It is just the way people are.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 29, 2021, 11:28:03 AM
Three questions:

1) how many believe there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe?

2) how many believe that ET life has visited earth?

3) how many believe that UFOs are proof of visits?

1) Yes. The universe is infinite. To me, it is a much bigger stretch to say we are the only intelligent life form in an infinite space than to say we most likely are not.

2) I am less confident about this one, but gun to my head I am going to say no. I think it would be difficult for this to go undetected. Of course, I fully accept that means of travel and detectability could differ greatly from what we know in this world, so it is certainly not impossible. But if you're putting a gun to my head my answer is no.

3) They are certainly by no means proof of visits. When people hear the word "UFO", their mind immediately envisions green martians with huge eyes coming out of a flying saucer, but the reality is that the probability of any given UFO legitimately being an alien spacecraft is infinitessimal.


On the whole, human beings are capable of enormous leaps of faith. The vast majority of the human race believes in some sort of god despite zero physical scientific evidence. On the whole, the human mind tends to be very uncomfortable with the unknown or with unanswerable questions, so we like to embellish or outright invent things as a way of seeking comfort. UFOs would be one such example of this, as are numerous conspiracy theories and, arguably, much of religion.

And just to be clear, as you can see from my answers above, I am not denying the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life. I am just pointing out that human beings are constantly drawn to the sexier, more dramatic explanation of the unknown, rather than following Occham's Razor, which dictates that the vast majority of the time, the most straightforward explanation is usually the right one.

Gotta go with the charcoal grill. I'm a purist. Even if you have a gas grill, it's worth having a charcoal grill as well just so you can mix it up. You get so much of a better end product with the charcoal. Obviously it's more of a hassle and there is more cleanup, but it is well worth the effort.

One thing I've been adding to barbecues recently are padron peppers. You can generally get them in a supermarket. They're a delicious and healthy side for any grilled meat or fish meal. They also work well as a starter. They're easy to prep too - just put them in a bowl and work in olive oil and sea salt and they're ready to grill. You see them in restaurants a lot these days. I highly recommend adding them into your next barbecue meal. They're a real crowd pleaser.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 03:12:00 PM
I have a question, who is this generation's DeNiro and Pacino?  They don't have to be Italian, but they need to have the same great dramatic acting chops

That's a great question. My short answer is I don't think there is anyone quite of that caliber in the age 25ish to 50ish range right now. DeNiro and Pacino are true all-time greats, but more importantly I feel like you knew that about them 30 years ago. Whereas I don't really feel that way about any current actors.

If I'm thinking of the best actors in that younger age range, names that come to mind would include Edward Norton, Jake Gyllenhall, Christian Bale, Joaquin Phoenix, and possibly DiCaprio.

Names that I thought were amazing but are/were slightly older than the above group are Daniel Day-Lewis and Phillip Seymour-Hoffman. Of course, the latter is no longer with us, and the former has retired from acting. But those two are probably closer to the Deniro/Pacino caliber than anyone else we have seen since. I think Sean Penn and Denzel Washington probably also deserve some consideration as well. Both have had stellar careers with some exceptional performances and have shown real range.

Really good but difficult question. I'll go with:

1. Tank... an armored front-line vehicle like the tank is the cornerstone of ground warfare and was huge in both world wars. Has to be in the top three.

2. Nukes..  even though their usage has been limited, they have had an absolutely massive impact on the balance of power and geopolitics in the world.

3. Automatic weapon..  the ability to fire off rounds in succession (versus single action) is absolutely massive. Sadly we see this all too often in civilian life.


I think the airplane deserves serious consideration too, but I'm not sure that would be considered a "military invention."

I like them both a great deal, but if I had to pick one I would probably go wiith DeNiro. Pacino to me had an element of being the same in a lot of his movies. Lots of screaming, wailing, and over-acting at times. DeNiro to me was more commanding on the screen. I also think DeNiro (generally) had more range. His diabolical character in Cape Fear, his performance in Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, Meet The Parents... all very different types of characters. Pacino's seemed to have more similarities from movie to movie.

I also generally liked the movies DeNiro was in more. Loved Goodfellas, Casino, Raging Bull, Cape Fear, Deer Hunter, Godfather 2, Untouchables, Heat, Bronx Tale, the Score, etc. Just so many. I feel like there are more of his movies that I loved than Pacino's.

Two iconic actors. Both Italian Americans. Both active during the same time period. Both have had numerous great films. Both have played good guys and bad guys. They have acted in the same movie together more than once.

Which of the two would you say has had the better overall career? Consider both acting talent and also total body of work.

Another movie I enjoyed that Clint didn't act in but that he directed was Mystic River. Excellent, gripping crime drama with superb acting from multiple big name actors.

Iphone, but not because I tried both extensively and picked the better of the two. We're just (rightly or wrongly) tethered to Apple products in my household. While I don't always love the customer service I get from Apple, I have generally been very happy with the products. If that changed, I would explore Samsung more seriously, but to this point I haven't.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 09:57:15 AM
I also favor self-driving with my biggest motivation being how much of my time I could recapture if I was relieved of the burden of driving and could just be a passenger.  With today's always-connected world, there is so much I could do as a passenger versus being the driver

Precisely my view. To be able to recapture all the time spent driving and become a passenger for that time opens up the possibility of getting so much more done during car trips. Or to just be able to relax and even doze off. I'm all-in on self-driving cars. Sign me up as soon as they're fully tested/approved and out on the open market.