Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: uconnjack8 on April 26, 2024, 08:40:28 AMIts one of the most bizarre picks I can remember. They have made a lot of moves to improve their offense over the last several years.  They had every defensive player in the draft still available and chose a QB. 

I've been trying to reconcile this move too, Matt.  Here's the best I could do:

1.   They want an insurance policy for a 35 year old QB coming off an ACL injury
2.   If  Penix showcases some skills, his potential trade value could be worth more than the #8 pick; thus, representing a positive ROI.

Quote from: bamagiantfan on April 26, 2024, 07:42:27 AMI like Phil Simms' comment from years ago. In the NFL, statistics lie. If the team is playing well on both sides of the ball, the QBs shouldn't have big numbers at the end of the game. Its the teams that struggle to win (or not) that are throwing the ball for big numbers. Everyone is looking for the next Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes was a mediocre QB statistically in 2023 (yes, I said it) due in large part to a bunch of mediocre WR receivers. Compare his stats in 2023 to Jones in 2022. They are pretty similar, except Mahomes threw 150 more passes for about 10 more touchdowns and 10 more interceptions. Mahomes was able to grind out first downs with short passes and and his legs when he had to for wins. Kinda like Jones in 2022.

No, I'm not comparing the overall talent of Jones to Mahomes but there is a formula for winning that has won Superbowls and Jones has shown he is capable of making the plays that win games, which may not include big stats. It also included horrible offensive line play which was/is the one thing that has to be fixed for ANY QB to be successful in NY.

I think uconnjack got it right. THe pieces around him from the Offensive line to the recievers at all positions prohibit Jones from being successful without a great Defense.

I appreciate your perspective, bama!  However, I have to disagree with your statement regarding Mahomes having mediocre season.  I also believe his stats prove the opposite of the point you're trying to make.  In point of fact, Mahomes finished in the Top 10 of almost every major NFL passing category, without a top-tier WR.  By definition, a top 10 performance is anything other than mediocre.  This also wasn't his first year playing without WR talent; he also played without WR talent last year, when he put up all world numbers.  Indeed, he had an off year for Mahomes; however, it was hardly mediocre.  In short, QBs akin to Mahomes and Brady can still put up top 10 numbers without quality WRs.   

Yards    #6
Comp    #3
TDs    #8
PCT    #9
RTG    #12
QBR    #8

Will he be better?  Yes, Nabers should provide some nice YAC to bolster DJ's abysmal passing production. Will he magically elevate DJ into the high-volume passer required to compete for SBs in the modern era...NO!

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 25, 2024, 11:07:07 PMLenn,

In 2022 Daniel Jones had a 93.2 RTG ranked 13th, a 60.2 QBR ranked 6th, and the Giants went 10-7-1 and won a playoff game.

May I ask did you forget about this?

Great, where did the Giants rank in passing yards, passing TDs, and completions?  You know, stats that actually matter to WRs.  @LennG is spot on here.

I love the Nabers pick; after the top 3 QBs came off the board, this was the best option.  Still, the notion Nabers is going to magically evaluate DJ to a top-tier/high-volume passer that's required to win in the modern NFL seems far-fetched.   

I doubt a knowledgeable and venerable poster like Lenn "forgot about 2022." He's capable of analyzing numbers outside an utter vacuum; instead, preferring a macro view. DJ had a good season relative to his past performances; he did NOT have a good season relative to his contemporaries.  His high rating and QBR were byproducts of being overly conservative, coupled with a really good rushing performance/yards; however, when viewed from a macro perspective (i.e. considering all the data), it was nothing special. After 60 games, I think we all have a good idea of DJ's capabilities...

Quote from: T200 on April 25, 2024, 01:53:13 PMDid they spend more time with JJ than any other prospect or did JJ spend more time with NY than any other team?

I think it's the latter.

Tim, that's an important distinction and a good point.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 25, 2024, 12:40:48 PMJust hope fans are openminded because this year is most scattered as to opinions.

Joe, I actually think we're in position to satisfy most preferences. I have to get up at 3Am to watch the draft; so, my excitement will be greatly tampered.

The Giants should get a good player!!

Quote from: RelaxTension on April 25, 2024, 12:32:34 PMI took the comment as McCarthy spent more time with the Giants then any other team.

So do I, but the player doesn't invite themselves. The Giants invited him the most as he's the most attainable QB.  It doesn't make sense to schedule multiple invites with Williams.  If that makes sense.,,

Thanks for doing this, Jolly.  It's very useful.

Quote from: TONKA56 on April 25, 2024, 08:42:36 AMOf course there's going to be exceptions.

Fair enough, my friend.  I think we're a lot of teams fail is drafting the wrong guy after hitting the reset button.  NYJ come to mind.  Otherwise, your good point is well taken.

Quote from: spiderblue43 on April 25, 2024, 08:24:38 AMI like JJ a lot. I think he's going to be a real good, not great player. JJ kinda let the cat out of the bag, no? The fact they spent more time with him than anybody is revealing.

I don't believe so; instead, I believe it's a reflection of the reality and the Giants relative draft position.  In short, of the top QBs, JJ is the most likely to still be available at #6.  It doesn't make much sense to invest time in Williams or Daniels when it's highly unlikely the Giants will have a chance to draft either. 

I believe this paradigm is somewhat outdated; a lot depends on the HC's credibly and past successes.  For example, if a HC wins CoY, or a SB, they'll be given more opportunities to press the QB reset button.  The rookie salary cap has also made it dramatically easier to move on from drafted QBs; it's no longer takes 5-years to recover from a poor QB draft decision. 

For a few example, McVay will  hit the reset button very soon to replace Stafford (injury/age).  Does anyone believe his job is in jeopardy? It wasn't when he hit the reset button from Goff to Stafford.  It's likely he'll need to hit the reset button 3x in 6 years.  Mike Tomlin hit the reset button on Kenny Pickens after one year, and only "solved" the issue for one season...he'll have to address it again next year.  Is his job in jeopardy? Shanahan hit the QB reset button 3x, going from Garoppolo-to-Lance-to-Purdy; his job was never in jeopardy. 

Quote from: Ed Vette on April 25, 2024, 06:25:40 AMI've been saying it for months now and although I really like Drake Maye, I'll be very happy if the Giants trade down with Minnesota and take Bo Nix.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10118235-daniel-jeremiah-qb-bo-nix-punished-by-nfl-scouts-experts-for-oregons-offense.amp.html

Ed,

I like Bo a lot, especially in a late 1st, or early 2d trade scenario. As stated last month, I hope the Giants grab a stud WR and potential QB.  Having said that, I understand Nix limited arm strength will limit his ceiling, but I believe his athleticism and accuracy makes him a viable prospect with tremendous draft value. 

Great stuff, Ceri!  I hope the Giants download your recommendations; I've been advocating for us to draft a top tier QB, if not available at #6, take the best WR and grab Bo Nix with your second pick, even trading up if you have to. 

Again, very well organized product...THANK YOU for doing this. 

I hope not; Penix reminds me too much of Brandon Weeden.  At the college level, both are/were big-arm QBs with good accuracy who entered the draft much older than their peers; speaking of age, their numbers may have been inflated as a result of playing against 'kids' 4-to-5 years younger.  To be fair, I think Penix will prove to be a much better player than Weeden, but will be 24 years old at the start of next season.  For comparison sake, DJ is 26 years old, Patrick Maohmes is 28, and CJ Stroud will be 22 at the start of the season.  I'm not a fan of drafting a QB already 4 years older than his contempories. 

Very similar college numbers:
 
Weeden:
342   511   66.9   4277   8.4   8.6   34   13   154.1
409   565   72.4   4727   8.4   8.6   37   13   159.7

Penix:
362   554   65.3   4641   8.4   8.8   31   8   151.3
363   555   65.4   4903   8.8   9.2   36   11   157.1

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 24, 2024, 09:37:03 AMOn a related note, a coworker attended a meeting of a town's high school's best and brightest students (the mayor hosted it).  When she returned, she shared with me that there weren't students wishing to become doctors and the like among the group. Still, many had career aspirations of being social media influencers.

That comports with my interactions with young people.  My oldest son graduated with a double-major in electrical and mechanical engineering; this is great because he'll be supporting my youngest, who desperately wants to be a social media influencer (focusing on video games).  It's up to the middle son to determine if we're good parents or not