Big Blue Huddle

The attempt here is at a realistic view of what this team could be next year or two. Let me know if you agree or it's overly optimistic 

So I'd like to touch on each unit and see if we of Big Blue Folk Lore can come to a consensus:


OFFENSE

QB: Big unknown for many and rightly so. Flashes of brilliance but supporting cast (WR, OL and OL coaching) has been undoubtedly one of the worst combinations in the league his entire tenure as Giants QB. Does this change, mercifully and finally? See below.

WR: Stark reality stat: The last giants receiver to break 1,000 was Odell in 2018 with 1,052 yards. In fact, no receiver has gotten more than 751 yards in that time span (Darius Slayton 2020). In the modern passing era those are ridiculously low numbers. But now another much ballyhooed LSU WR has been added to the fold.  The recent history has been fantastic: OBJ, J'Marr, Justin Jefferson. Now Malik Nabers. These guys come in and are often day 1 starters who also are 1100+ yard WRs year 1. We have a 3rd year Wan'Dale who did more than flash last year and a 2nd year Hyatt who last year proved at minimum his speed has to be seriously accounted for and requires safety help over the top. Slayton the vet of the group is steady if unspectacular and Hodgins is a nice possession guy and red zone threat.

TE: Waller is probably retiring, big hit here. However under Wellman hopefully Bellinger slims back down a bit and regains some of his lost agilty/speed. He was not as agile last year. There is a thing as too much muscle. Also Theo seems to be a super intriguing option who has some serious upside in the passing game and as a blocker.

OL: Always the million dollar question. Personally I think coaching had just as much to do with it as poor talent the last few years. However Bracillo could be the best guy we've had in here in like ages. Schoen signed a couple guys who are very good pass blockers. JMS was supposedly the best Center in last year's draft and super smart. I think he develops under Carmen. Neal I have no idea. But you hope he can be at least either a half decent RT or half decent RT and Eluemenor can play the other position next to him. No first year players on the line either this year which is a good thing too.

RB: Yes we lost Barkley to the dreaded Eagles. Let's move on. Daboll's offense, is more a passing offense. Singletary is a low key effective Running Back. We got two stabs with Dante Miller and Tracy for an electric one that can be used in an RBBC. Still early, but Gray to me didn't show me much.




DEFENSE


D-Line/Edge: Dexter Lawrence , one of best in business. No more Wink weird DL responsibilities . More traditional DL approach under Bowen. We don't know if Bowen is a product of Vrabel or also an effective DC but in theory his philosophies sound well sound. Burns was a monstrous addition to add to Thibs on other side. Ojulari also is a plus pass rusher but just can't stay on the field. Depth on DL is questionable with Riley and Davidson showing flashes but still very much unknowns. Losing Robinson here hurts a bit but the top end talent could be ferocious. Patterson is a good DL coach who will get to work them in more traditional pass rush and run responsibilities under Bowen (in theory).

LB: Not as premium an impact position but we have a keeper in Okereke now. A heady , smart 3 down sideline to sideline guy who is a still good fit in Bowen's defense. McFadden had some bad missed tackles/reads last year but in the new more straight forward traditional defense of Bowen he should be better this year. Beaver who flashed bigtime might be healthy again. Not a terrible group and with all the sub-packages it will really come down to having one good one which we do and maybe a 2nd one like Beavers or McFadden.

CB: Love Banks and while he may be better in man think he can play some zone too. He will be a 2nd year player now. Problem is there is little veteran presence and not much after Banks. McCloud is down low a decent player but we need more especially when teams base is often 3 and sometimes 4 WR sets. Andru Phillips is interesting but just a rookie. Robinson can't stay healthy. Flott is still kinda an unknown. I thnk if one unit is crying out for a veteran post draft addition it's this one. There are a few options still out there like Gillmore, Peterson and Weatherspoon. One of those options potentially would stabilize the backend.

S: Tyler Nubin if he is everything this front office and scouting department think he is could be the steal of the draft. 13 INTs don't happen by accident in college football. He seems like a perfect fit for a split zone scheme. Extrmely smart and instinctual. Has good size. Pinnock and Belton aren't great but aren't terrible either. Adding Nubin to this mix could make this unit quite dynamic.



Conclusion: Bowen is an unknown. Is he a product of Vrabel only? Is he the Eric Bienemy of DCs? DJ is an unknown too but if healthy, the missing ingredients that QBs normally need to convert talent to actual on field production is apparently there this year.  OL coaching #1, a WR group that could have a true WR1 even though he is a rookie and a half decent cast along the offensive line. Defense has some nice pieces but is still quite young in some areas. Needs a vet presence or two especially at Safety and probably DT.

When you add all this one could argue this team has quite a bit more overall collective talent than the Daboll team in 2022. That team was coached extremely well and miximized it's abilities despite poor OL coaching and talent. That team also won 9 games and a playoff game!  If this team is coached up well offensively and defensively and DJ is a QB that can play well with better parts around him, I could see it surprise a bit.  Daboll in my mind  proved he is capable of coaching up an offense. If he can do more with less and adjust to the parts around him like 2022, I think now with a better OL that won't short circuit what he is trying to do on offense and the #1 WR potentially in the fold this team could be better than it's 2022 predecessor.




Realistic or overly optimistic? 

DJ has never had a WR who even broke 1000 yards. He's played with the likes of Sills, Richie James, a broken down Shep, and older Tate, and Slayton. Hardly a who's who of WRs.  We all probably can agree too he's never had an OL that would categorize as average let alone above the average mark.

I'm not ready to say DJ can be a great QB consistently , I really wanted Drake Maye, but those who are objective must also recognize he has had very little approaching even average around him either.

I'm geniunely curious what he looks like with Malik Nabers, a 2nd year Hyatt, a 3rd year Wan'Dale, Slayton now as a 3rd or 4th option and a properly coached OL.

 We of the Big Blue Folk Lore have no choice but to be at least a wee bit hopeful or why even bother watching next year?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 28, 2024, 12:05:56 PMI often think fans somewhat overrate the importance of coaching (relative to the importance of the actual talent level on the roster), but with O line in particular I think coaching matters quite a bit. I don't know exactly how good Carmen Bricillo is or will be, but I am extremely confident that he is at least somewhat of an upgrade over Woody Johnson, and I am cautiously optimistic that he may be a very large upgrade over Woody Johnson. I'm eager to see what impact he is able to have.

Neal was a total disaster for us at RT last year as well as in his rookie year. That was a major source of the trouble (albeit far from the only one). Elumenor played at a respectable level last year at RT for Vegas, for Bricilo. I don't know if they're planning on giving Neal another shot at RT and using Elumenor as a guard, but either way I think it's safe to say that we'll have much better RT play this year. Either Neal suddenly gets much better, or Elumenor takes over. Either way, that side of the line will be a lot better than the last couple of years, where we were counting on Neal and Glowinski whereas now we have Runyan and either a much improved Neal or Elumenor, who is solid.

That alone is big IMO. If Thomas can stay healthy, and JMS can improve from his rookie season (not a huge stretch), this line can be quite decent actually. Runyan is going to be fine, Thomas is an all pro caliber guy when healthy, Elumenor was a 70ish PFF caliber RT under this coach last year, and JMS is a talented player who had a rough rookie year but figures to hopefully improve in year two. Left guard is a bit of a question mark but we have multiple options there, so hopefully the best (or least bad) of all of those options is good enough to not mess up the whole line.

I actually think this will be a league-average line this year.

What was league average 40 something sacks? That would just mean we cut our sacks in half in one year...by becoming.... average     

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 28, 2024, 01:43:41 PMThe NFL is all about the matchups and the substitution packages.  The Giants added two players in this draft, which will make it tough for opposing defenses to have the right players on the field.

The first is TE Theo Johnson.  Combine him with TB Bellinger, and opposing DCs will dread seeing the Giants lined up in 12 (two TE) formations.   Opposing defenses will have to decide to go heavy to prevent the Giants from running them over with their two solid-blocking TEs and risk being in a tough spot to defend passes if the Giants put one or both TE out as receivers.   OR  The opposing defense goes lighter to handle the passing threat, which makes it easier for the Giants to power rush with the two extra solid blockers.


The second is RB Tyrone Tracy.  Tracy was a pretty good WR.  When Tracy is in the backfield teams will never know when Tracy could go in motion and split out wide in his old role as a WR, or if the Giants will simply play it straight up with a rush.  Again, it makes it very difficult for DCs to know how to play the GIants when Tracy is in the backfield.

Some really interesting tools on both these kids considering where they got them in the draft. Possible great system fits for what Daboll prefers to do. That Theo kid was horribly underutilized with the Nittany Lions. The other kid looks electric at RB but is new to the position so the numbers aren't there. Two possible mid/late round gems found by the scouts.

I see a ton of negativity here. Giants have this uncanny tendency to do really well when the expectations are low. A lot has to fall right but I am not going into next season without at least some hope either.

Quote from: Uni on April 28, 2024, 11:41:31 AMTrubitsky wasn't some reach by the Bears that year, he was projected as the first QB of the board on many mock drafts.

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Mitch would have been somewhere between QB5 to QB7 of this draft

Even if the weaknesses on him are legitimate: straight line speed without too much great wiggle, there is most definitely enough wiggle to run some routes. He is also a great hands catcher that maximizes his immense catch radius. I saw him run a beautiful whip route here. Not many guys his size can do that. Also the seams routes, delay/late release stuff Daboll will do with him will make him a very nice complementary weapon. Excellent pick early 4th with Waller probably retiring.

Giants have transformed team speed.

my favorite advanced analytics breakdown of Tyrone

Drake Maye is a far cry from Mitch Tribisky though in size/frame and arm talent.

Quote from: katkavage on April 28, 2024, 09:49:12 AMGood post. You have to assess the schedule. As of today how many teams on that schedule will the Giants be favored?

5-6 wins if Bowen bombs, up to 10 if he is legit as schedule is a bit easier this year.

Home run draft would have been getting Maye. Scared money don't make money as Schoen said.

Short of that , we are reduced to crossing my fingers on DJ but I could see him blossom with Nabers and a competently coached OL too.

I give it a 4. Lots of system fits with smart, tough and dependable players.

Maye initially dropped my temperature to frigid levels. I see a budding Allen/Herbert when I watch his tape. McCarthy proved to be smoke. Right or wrong, Giants felt Pats asking price was just too big. 

I was peeved to say the least but as reality set in , I took a hard look at what we have now post draft both players and the ball coaches.


What exactly are we left with at QB?  I try to look at common denominators between good play and bad play as much as possible to make a determination. Let's start at the beginning. Jones rookie year threw 24 TDs in just 12 games with pedestrian WRs. Shurmur was an above average offensive guy (who stunk as a HC) but route concepts had clear site lines and attacked multiple levels of the defense. Next couple years after, he had a hideous OC with that Garrett guy who only knew how to run hitches and curls all day. Basically all 5 years this kid not once had a receiver that could sniff a pro-bowl. The other common denominator was the offensive line was coached by a whos who of who not to hire as coaches. The only thing he had which was average or a smidge above was offensive coaching for a couple years. Most everything else is below to bottom barrell including numerous offensive lineman that were really
really just stinka-potumus at pass blocking.

I actually don't blame anyone of my blue feathered friends who has given up on him.  There are reasons why it could be argued the other way. However, I have also seen QBs when the cast around them improve be it coaches or players their performance substantially improves too. I want to have a glimmer of hope this upcoming season. 

So I'm kinda going from cup half empty with a crack at the bottom leaking to a cup half full  perspective.


This just might be the first darn time Daniel will have:

* A true what we believe to be potentially elite WR1
* An offensive line coach that has what seems to be excellent credentials (top 10-12 finishes with an average line with two different squads)
* An offensive line with numerous players that project well in pass blocking. AT, Runyons metrics in pass pro are excellent. Eluemunor as both an RG or RT projects at least as average. JMS he was supposed to be the top OC in the 2023 draft. Then we will see what Bracillo can come up with for the final spot.

I choose to be disappointed yes but also cautiously optimistic that we could see something positive maybe even significantly better with a WR1 and an OL that actually pass blocks.


On Defense Bowen to me is the total unknown. Vrabel is a defensive coach, so was it Vrabel or was it Bowen?

Ghobriel also kind of an unknown.

I'm going 5-6 wins if Bowen bombs or up to 10 if Bowen is the real deal.

No picks through 5. Giants seem happy with what they have. Prolly want to focus on an offensive line with some level of experience across the board. Minimize potential of variability opting for reliability.

New to position means there is still a lot he is learning on the fly.

Not surprising he would still have trouble with some of the nuance of playing RB. If you beleive some of the reports sounds like Upside, tools pick whose floor might be an explosive KO returner.

Not bad for pick 166....

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 27, 2024, 03:21:12 PMGiants coming up on the clock soon..for me...I'd like DT Mekhi Wingo, OG Beaux Limmer, or OG Christian Mahogany

Some fine choices there, Jolly.