Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: LennG on April 12, 2023, 01:31:36 PMSadly, I just heard from Beth, Jim's daughter, that he passed away this AM. He didn't suffer and was in no pain. They are in the process of making funeral arrangements.

It is truly a very sad day.

Lenn,

Thank you for sharing.  It will seem empty around here without Jim's forecast.  If possible, would you mind sharing the funeral home?  I'd like to send flowers; I didn't know him as well as you, but we had several things in common ( Mainers, AF , etc..). Conversely, if BBH was planning to send something from all of us, I'd love to contribute via Vemo, PayPal, etc.  Whatever I can do...

This place just won't be the same without Jim

I'm thankful that such a fine man got so many good years. Thinking of his loved ones...

Wow...I would have never recognized him, Jolly! BTW, I'm in my 40s, but he's one of my favorite actors of all time too. Mississippi Burning, Bat21, Unforgiven, The Firm and Crimson Tide are some my all-time favorite's because of Hackman.   

Quote from: TDToomer on January 23, 2023, 09:07:15 PMReminds me of Gettleman looking at the film of the one game where Eli looked incredible after taking over after the 2016 season and declared that he had many years left in him.

Yep, it was the Phili game.

Quote from: Gmo11 on January 23, 2023, 08:38:40 PMI'm wondering if the Vikings defense is all time terrible though. I knew they were bad but after the performance against a talented group in Philly maybe the Giants and specifically those WRs weren't as great as they appeared in that game.

I do wonder why Jones didn't run more against Philly. Designed or otherwise. It was clear that anything else he was doing wasn't working.

9 QB enjoyed 300+ passing yards against Minn, including K Murray, M White and M Jones.  Heck, the latter 2 put up 370 and 380 passing yards. Some fans absolutely viewed the Ind and 2x Minn games a vacuum. I doubt the Giants will...

Quote from: GordonGekko80 on January 22, 2023, 12:25:27 PMThe problem is this: You can Franchise Tag the player, will cost you roughly 32mm in Cap space. And it's not to say that the player will sign the tag. He can sit it out if he wants (unlikely though with these numbers).

But if you were to draft a player or sign one from Free Agency, it would be much harder as either you don't know how the player will develop (draft) or he will cost you a ton of effin money (FA). Unless you are happy with a Tannehill type of player, which we already have inhouse.

So, in some way, we are married to the player...

I don't use the word stupid much, but it would be stupid to not play one year for $32M/yr.  Regardless of the next contract you sign, you're never going to make that money back.  The $32M is fully guaranteed; if anything, DJ should pray for tag as it's the aperture to maximize your salary...the Kirk Cousins model.

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 22, 2023, 12:27:47 PM@TrueBlueFan @Rambo89 @GordonGekko80

This is not a rhetorical question.  Can any of you remember when franchising a QB for one year proved to be a good thing?

Rich, the sample size is pretty small; however, have you considered the reverse?  Specifically, how have franchisees performed after giving thier QBs multi-year lucrative deals, based on one (or two) good (not great) seasons.  Below is a list of the top 12 highest paid QBs, putting the QBs north of 37 aside, those teams that issued large contracts to non top 8 QBs haven't done well at all.  Id prefer the Giants avoid becoming Minn, Tenn, Raiders, etc, which is why I think the franchise tag makes a lot of sense.   

Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Derek Carr
Matt Stafford
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Matt Ryan
Ryan Tannehill
Tom Brady

Quote from: Ed Vette on January 16, 2023, 11:37:30 AMHe really broke out last 5 games this season. Very encouraging.

Ed, do you account for the opponent?  I think it's fair to note his only 300+ yard passing games was against the NFLs 31st ranked passing def.  For context, this team had allowed 9x 300 yard passers, including K. Murray and M. White.  The other game was against the NFLs second worst team.  None of this is meant to detract from DJs wonderful performances; however, I don't believe the last 5 weeks is an indication DJ should get the same contract as Allen, Mahomes, etc.  I believe the Giants will look at his season in the aggregate; this includes if he throws 4 picks against Phili.  The latter shouldn't reduce his contract offer as yesterday's performance shouldn't increase it.

Rich brought up some GREAT points against the franchise tag; however, I firmly believe this is the best COA moving forward.

On an unrelated note, is anyone concerned about the type of offense DJ runs?  The Giants run their QB...A LOT; DJs a tough SOB, but I don't like the increased percentages of him being injured.

To be clear, DJ was amazing yesterday and I couldn't be happier for him and his family!  Despite his play, I don't envy the Giants and the decision they have to make. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 13, 2023, 03:20:12 PMMatt,

I think QB is a unique position in some ways.  While I appreciate that it's been done this way, I am not a big fan of keeping a QB on a year-to-year basis.   One prove-it year is reasonable, but after that, you need to crap or get off the pot (as they say).  So either you commit to at least 3 more years (4 is more likely) or move on from the guy. 

If you tag Jones, I think you are sort of hamstringing him a bit in terms of leadership.  On top of that, you are sort of leaving your team in a state of flux.   Personally, I would prefer to see the Giants let Jones walk and start their replacement efforts than keep him around on another 1-year deal.

Rich,

Good perspective on the negative byproduct of a franchise tag; indeed, if leadership isn't truly committed, neither will they players DJ seeks to lead.  Still, I'd advocate for the franchise tag, vice 4+/$30M plus year deal. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 13, 2023, 09:58:20 AMI will expand on how I envision DJ's contract. 

1) Contracts are about the total dollar amount and the guaranteed money

2) I would expect there to be a smaller signing bonus but guaranteed salary for the first two seasons  (salary guarantees count 100% in the year they are paid

3) I would expect a roster bonus in year 3 and years 3 and 4 not having a guaranteed salary

So if the team walked away after year 2, there would be a cap hit from the pro-rated signing bonus, but it would be offset by his salary and not paying the roster bonus so that the hit would be manageable.

Well thought out, Rich.  As you know, I've been advocating for the franchise tag for a month now.  My rationale is the Giants are going to have substantial cap space next season; so, they can absorb the cap hit.  Plus, a $31M cap hit might be close to traditional contract cost.   I might be  wrong, but I don't believe our Giants have a desire to sign DJ to more than 3 years; the rub is I don't think DJ will accept a contract for less than 5 years. A Franchise tag evades both land mines, while simultaneously allowing
the Giants to see if he can duplicate this season both in health and performance.  Thoughts? 

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 12, 2023, 01:24:04 PMI am surprised by where Orlovsky ranked him.  Every offseason, I hear Orlovsky on various Giants-themed podcasts, and he has never been a fan of DJ since he was drafted.  Orlovsky feels that QBs drafted in round one need to have some sort of trait they are special at that sets them apart from the pack, and he felt that was lacking with DJ.  Since then, his assessments of Jones have been more negative than positive each offseason. 

I am aware that in the second half of the season, Orlovsky gave a few positive reviews of some of DJ's games, but I didn't realize that Orlovsky had drastically changed his views on Jones.

DJ wasn't the QB that surprised me...it was his #14 selection. 

Quote from: Blue Fire on January 11, 2023, 08:02:54 PMThanks I edited the syntax to clarify.

The point was that you can structure contracts with higher cap hits in year 2 (2024) vs year 1 (2023) because 2024 is an obscenely high 179M cap space vs the still quite high 60-85M (3rd in NFL of 2023 with the high end of 85M after restructures/cuts/extensions if need be)

Mighty Ive always found you to be a man of reason who looked for the answers without letting bias cloud your judgment most of the time. I would ask you to take some time and take a closer look at the overthecap numbers I pointed out for other NFL teams along with our own cap space next year and beyond .  I think you will quickly realize we can most certainly add a big contract or two in addition to Barkley and Jones without it upsetting the apple cart (should we so desire). In fact it would be very much in line with the NFL landscape of many current playoff teams.

It seems you operate on the premise that people who disagree with you must be clouded by some type of bias. 

Quote from: GMenRF on January 05, 2023, 08:59:52 PMYou can also add

#6 in EPA
#1 in INT %

Considering the lack of "playmakers" he's had to work with.

Disclaimer
I put "playmakers" loosely here since Hodgins has been a breath of fresh air in this offense but did we really expect a practice squad player to come in here and be DJs safety blanket.

Hodgins is a crafty WR and knows how to create space.  However he is not that stud that is going to run sub 4.4 that will blow the top off any defense.

Yes, but you can also add #20 TD and #26 in YDS/ATT.  I actually like/prefer @MightyGiants calculous for evaluating QBs, which includes a combination of QBR, Ratings and PFF score.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on January 05, 2023, 08:21:36 PMThat would seem a little low if someone was unaware that Max's top 3 tiers are his top 6 QBS.  Onr in tier 1, 2 in tier 2, and 3 in tier 3.

@AZGiantFan, it might be similar to the tiers I specified on page 55; interesting enough, tier 3 is exactly where I have Jones.  My top two tiers are limited to just 8 QBs...

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 05, 2023, 07:24:00 PM@kingm56

If all you are looking for is a top-10 QB, it appears Daniel Jones is your man.   Considering DJ is in (along with all his teammates)  a first-year system.   PFF has the Giants ranked 18th in pass protection and 27th in receiving.  Yet despite these handicaps, DJ is currently.

QBR- 9

QB rating- 13

PFF- 14th (50% snaps)

On top of that, he has led his team to the playoffs. 

With all of that, I have a hard time not seeing how he won't be top 10 next season. (assuming the Giants add some talent)

Hey @MightyGiants

Those numbers average to 12, exactly where we thought he could be.  I listed the QBs I thought were better than DJ.  He falls just outside the top 10.  I would also like to see DJ repeat this year's performance and increase his objective stats, which are still in the bottom 1/2 of the league. I continue to advocate for the franchise tag.