Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 07:24:19 PMHence why I don't post these kinds of things myself.  But there are a lot of guys who provide meat to get eyeballs, not just pure clickbait that is devoid of content beyond just a throwaway  opinion.  Like the guy who does the detailed film breakdowns under 'Talking Giants' or the guy who did the Thib's breakdown over the last 3 games that I posted - I don't even know the name or credentials ofthe guy who runs 'The football scout's but I know his breakdown deepened my understanding.  I'd love to see him do a similar video on this last, monster, game Thibs had.  Or the guy who does the QB School website who did a nice breakdown after the London game.  Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj_YlNSwUME&t=9s

For me, things like this provide actual value.

And considering that my position on Jones is pretty unique on this board, I think it's clear that I don't follow any of these guys as gurus, I do my own thinking.  You may not agree with my thinking, but it is my own.

Sounds like where in violent agreement, Rich.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 07:08:34 PMMatt,

I have already explained what I want (and would expect) the Giants to do with DJ is based entirely on what Daboll and Schoen believe DJ's potential is and what they expect from him moving forward.  In my opinion, it's sort of pointless to talk about dollars without knowing that.  You guys are certainly free to speculate, though.

To clarify, the analytics department may play a role, but it's highly unlikely they will be doing what you suggested, which is to set a dollar value based on past production.  The analytics department will more likely set dollar values for various levels of anticipated performance which Joe would use as guidelines in any negotiations. 

That's exactly what analytics does; it will provide a value relative to DJs predictive performance going forward. The number will be computed based on sophisticated algorithms that use literal thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of data points...maybe more. It will be up to the Giants brass do use this data or not; however, I assure you, the Giants analytics department will play a significant role in the decision to retain DJ, and recommend a relative value.  It's literally what they do. 

Also, would you mind providing a link to your thoughts on what the giant should do with DJ. I must have missed it would enjoy reading your musings.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 06:46:20 PMYour commentary makes it sound like you are not familiar with the concept of framing.  DB's question served to frame the issue in a way he (and clearly you) wanted to frame it.  Not accepting the framing isn't "deflecting.", as the wrong framing can often cloud an issue or skew an issue.

As for your promise, I highly doubt they will set his cap number based on his production, no matter how much you wish that to be the case.

Also, the claim about salary cap mattering is a bit of a strawman as I never suggested salary cap wouldn't matter.  Although how much it matters will depend on what Schoen and Daboll consider DJ's future potential to be.

Rich, I can't ask it anymore plainly: what do you want the Giants to do with DJ?  There's no framing or alternative motive. It's a simple question.

So, the Giants million-dollar analytics department doesn't have any culpability in the Giants biggest decision in the last five years? They're not going to provide the Giants decision making any relevant data, projections, or or relative value information? If you believe that, you clearly have never been exposed to Analytics. The analytics department will give the Giants decision makers a number however, it will be up to the Giants decide to go beyond that or not.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 06:36:47 PMMaybe it's that lots of other professionals have given an opposite argument and included analysis while the guy in question makes his money by providing controversial opinions and just threw out a clickbait tweet without anything behind it.  I have a much higher regard for his brother Sterling, who used to do that show with Baldinger analyzing upcoming match-ups.  I don't see a lot of Shannon, but I can't recall ever seeing him doing any serious analysis.

That's true for everyone whose revenue and/or contacts is predicated by viewership.  It's all about content, regardless of the accuracy of said content. I'd recommend posters do their own critical thinking and analysis, vice consuming multiple podcasts.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 06:05:10 PMYou are correct, which is why I don't think this issue should be framed as how much to pay

I'm seriously interested in why you're deflecting?  Why are you avoiding the Question?  I also completely disagree the aggregate salary doesn't matter in a league with a hard salary cap. I promise you the Giants analytics department will provide a number relative to DJs projected production. In the NFL, salary absolutely matters and should be part of this discussion.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 05:58:02 PMActually, Matt, it's quite the reverse.  You guys are looking at Jones in a vacuum.   Schoen, if he is a good GM is looking at the QB position as just one piece in the team-building puzzle.   As for what I want, I am not so unrealistic to think I know more about Jones than the people who are directly coaching him.  Frankly, the only scenario that I would find disappointing is if Schoen wanted Jones back at a given price, but another team signed him away for more money.

.

None of this has anything to do with expressing what you would like to see happen. I have already expressed my opinion, I would like to see DJ back on a one or two year deal.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 05:28:20 PMI am not sure this is the best framing.   Either Joe and Dabs believe DJ is the future so you pay what you have to.  They think he is the answer, at least short term, so you offer what you think he is worth, or the don't want him and let him walk.

To me, it makes little sense to view this strickly as a salary issue.

This notion only makes sense if you choose to look at it in a vacuum. The Giants may wish to go another direction; yet, the relative draft position may not afford them the opportunity to do so. We saw this for multiple years with Washington and cousins.  We'll know if this is accurate if the Giants only offer a minimum contract, or use the franchise or transition tag. If they think he's the answer, they'll offer the multiyear/big money contract. 

Besides, this isn't what Dave is asking. Dave is asking what do YOU want.

Great idea, Dave!

Considering the Giants 2023 relative draft position, I think it's wise to bring him back via franchise or transition tag. I like jess' idea; however, I don't believe DJ will accept that contract offer, nor should he. He's worth more than 1 yr/$8 million deal.  If you consider he's a mid-tier quarterback, he's worth at least 25 million a year.  I am not in favor of a long-term, 100+ million dollar deal.

Quote from: Blue Fire on December 23, 2022, 03:18:31 PMBelieve what you will. I am placing DJs return at like 80-85% (barring some unforeseen circumstance as mentioned above)

This isn't rocket science; the Giants may be forced to offer DJ a limited contract, transition, or franchise tag him. This has little to do with their confidence in him as a player; instead, it's a byproduct of a weak 2022 QB draft class, and their relative 2023 draft position. In short, DJ may be forced upon them for another year or two.  I suspect a transition tag myself.  Yet, I haven't seen a single report that indicates the Giants willingness ti offer a five year, 100+ Million dollar contract. There's a big difference between the two paradigms. You're acting like the media reports indicate the Giants are ready to hand him a franchise type deal, which simply isn't true.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 12:41:56 AMLast year they averaged giving up 2.2 sacks per game.  This year they have been averaging 3.1 sacks per game, more than a 40% increase.  In the face of these facts I would not give credence to any metric that says their pass pro has even stayed the same, let anyone improved.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-per-game

So, sacks allowed are purely an offense line stat, which the QB shares no culpability? If the QB holds the ball for 5 seconds, and gets sacked, is it still against the line? It's odd you choose to only use one metric, while simultaneously disregarding all the other data points.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 22, 2022, 07:27:32 PMWell, the pass pro DID get a lot worse, so there's that.

By what standard?   The metrics says it's better than last year.  Did you see the post from Ed a few weeks ago? 

Quote from: Rambo89 on December 22, 2022, 10:02:16 AMI think Jones has the longer NFL career than Murray despite Murray being more talented.  Jones being a hard working good guy who has shown he can be an efficient game manager will last longer in the NFL.

I agree, Rambo! When DJ starting days are over in a decade, he'll make a great backup too.

Quote from: Slugsy-Narrows on December 22, 2022, 09:41:50 AMMurray has had better skill players to throw to I believe!

OLINE probably equal to ours maybe slightly better but not by much.

Not really, Hopkins has been very injury prone over the last two years...last season he only accounted for 500 yards.  This year, he's only played in 8 games.  AJ Green is nearing 35 years of age and is a shell of his former self; M Brown was an overpaid FA...he's only had 1 of 4 good seasons.  While Murray has better talent this season, it's a lot closer than people realize over the last 4-years.  While Murray has enjoyed Hopkins, DJ has enjoyed Barkley/Thomas.  They both have bottom 10 Offense lines; although, the Giants have been been better pass blockers this season. 

 The Cards were on the right track, but haven't done well acquiring talent over the last few years, especially young talent.  It's odd we're told to look beyond the numbers as it relates to DJ, but we're not going to give Murray the same 'curtesy.'   I suspect Kingsburry will be fired this offseason and the Cards will be starting over on the offensive side of the ball; something I'd like to see our Giants avoid in 3-years...

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 22, 2022, 09:11:58 AMThe stats said Murray was the better QB, which is a good reason not to just listen to stats.   DJ is lights out superior to Murray in the critical traits like work ethic, toughness, and leadership

Murray is the better QB; although, they're probably both in the same tier, which is Exactly what the stats say.  Moreover, I would agree to look beyond the stats for a single year, as it could be an anomaly...it happens.  I wouldn't advocate for looking beyond four years and 55 Games started of data.  At that point, history has repetitively shown us you are who you are...

I also agree with Jess, I wouldn't have signed Murray for the same reasons I'm not in favor of a franchise-type deal for DJ....

Quote from: AP44 on December 20, 2022, 10:52:38 PMKC built their team up and added Mahoney as the final piece. In fact, smith was a playoff QB. We can do the same thing as they did. Sign Jones for two years and see if there's a QB worth taking. And don't forget Mahomes sat an entire year. The KC model you referenced is actually a method worth following and keeping Jones would be a part of it.

Alex Smith was a pro bowl, above-average QB, that TWO teams replaced while he in his prime.  Each team made the SB the year following Smith.  That's the point, in the modern era, you're unlikely to win SBs with a mid-tier guy.  If it were up to Todge, they would have stuck with Alex Smith.  To be clear, I understand circumstances (e.g. terrible 2022 QB draft class and relative 2023 draft standing) may dictate franchising, transition tagging, or offering a 2/3 year deal; however, that's not what many are advocating for...they want a multi-year, franchise-type deal.  I'm opposed to that strategy.

BTW, Mahomes wasn't the final piece, he IS the piece...he's what makes it go.  KC has literally flipped 90% of the roster between Mahomes first year and this year.  The WR corps is 100% different, with only Kelce remaining.  If you get the right QB, you're going to win, independent of the majority of the surrounding cast.  Like the Pats with Brady, KC will be competitive every year Mahomes is under center, with or without a big name WR and/or stud LT.