Big Blue Huddle

Hi John. I was saddened to hear about all the struggles you have encountered leading up to your decision to let the disease take its course. I have a close friend who's mother receive the kind of great hospice care that you described. I am glad to read that you are in such good hands.  I hope that whatever number of days you have remaining will bring you great comfort and a sense of how much your life has meant to many people.   

Great analysis.  In 2006, 2007 and 2016 they were division winners and then went one and out in the playoffs.  In 2009 and 2014 they were one of the wildcard teams in the playoffs and went 1-1 both years.  Of course we Giants fans vividly remember the 2007 divisional playoff game in which Dallas beat the Giants twice in the regular season and lost to them in the conference championship game.  In my mind that game exemplified their inability to get it done in the playoffs. My conclusion is that they have been out coached in games when it is win or go home.

What are your thoughts on why Dallas just can not get it done in the playoffs in spite of having superior talent?

Yes, I am estimating that there will be a carryover of 3 mil from 2017 to 2018.  Any CAP leftover from one year can be carryover to the next year.

Here is what I remember from the whole JPP episode:

1. The franchise tag was around 15 mil.
2.  JPP came back for part of that season and earned around 8 mil for a 7 mil savings and CAP carryover.
3.  The carryover played a significant part in the Giants being so active in free agency in 2016.  If I remember correctly, the Giants had 20 mil in CAP space of which 11 mil was carryover. So the accident contributed 7 mil of that 11 mil carryover.

A reasonable argument can be made that JPP's accident ended became a significant contributor to the defense the Giants have today.  I am of the opinion that JPP would not be on the Giants today had he not had the accident.  Prior to the accident, the Giants and JPP were getting nowhere fast on a long term contract. When the accident occurred there was only 11 days left to come to a long term agreement.  I can see where the resentment over being franchised would have led to JPP leaving the Giants in 2016.  I highly doubt the Giants would have franchised him again.  That would have tied up 18 mil in CAP space which would have made it impossible for the Giants to be highly active in free agency during the 2016 off season  . 

I am especially excited about the depth on the DL. For some reason I am not as excited about the depth at WR.  The performance at the QB position probably has something to do with that.

On your question about Collins impact on players around him, I suspect his biggest impact is on the LBers. I would not be surprised if he communicates regularly with Goodson.  I am thinking that Collins sees things that some other players do not see and that he takes an active role in calling out what he sees.

9/4/17 Update  With the signing of Ross Cockrell and Herzlich going on IR along with some contractual updates received by Sportac and Over The Cap, the Giants now have approximately 3.2mm in CAP space.  At this point I do not see any carryover of CAP space going into 2018.  The Giants still have approximately 30mm  in 2018 CAP space with the ability to increase it further. 

8/17 Update:  Giants CAP increased to 8.5mm as a result of J.T Thomas taking a big cut in salary. An additional 1mm would be saved if he does not make the 53 man roster.  I am thinking that the Giants will end up with a carryover of $4-5mm.  It is interesting to me that the above salary cut was not done during free agency.  I suspect that the Giants did not push the issue because there wasn't an opportunity to sign another UFA that they were interested in. END OF UPDATE

As some of you know, I have been doing a team CAP analysis for more years than I care to admit.  Well actually it has been about 20 years going back to when George Young was clueless about how to manage the CAP. As a result of the recent changes that scout.com made. the unfortunate indirect consequence is that BBWC lost its identity completely. Without the administrative responsibilities associated with BBWC, I will have the time to spend here at BBH.

Rich and Ed have asked me to post my 2017 CAP and team analysis here at BBH.  Currently the Giants have approximately 5.7mm in CAP space.  This is enough to enable them to do any desirable late signings as well as make CAP moves during the season.  The only remaining player cut that makes sense from strictly a CAP point of view is J.T. Thomas.  If he does not make the 53 man roster, 3mm would be saved in 2017 CAP space and there would be 1mm dead money generated in 2018.  Regardless, the maximum amount of carryover CAP space for 2018 will likely be in the neighborhood of 3mm.

Currently. the Giants have approximately 23mm in 2018 CAP space.  That is based on 160mm in signed contracts and a 2018 CAP estimate of 183mm.  The Giants made an important move by accepting OBJ's 5th year option.  OBJ will be making 8.4mm in 2018.  It would not surprise me if the Giants eventually extend his contract in such a manner that would pay him more in 2018 but less in 2019 when he will likely be making top WR money.  Eli's CAP peaks at 23mm in 2019 which is very likely his last year as a Giant.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the contracts for Eli. Vernon, JPP, Harrison and Jenkins to see what the CAP impact would be if any of them had a career ending injury.  I am pleased to report that the vast majority of their compensation is in the form of salary. After the 2018 season, the Giants would gain enough CAP room to be active in free agency if Vernon, JPP, Harrison or Jenkins were to have a career ending injury.  In addition, the Giants would be in a good position to renegotiate any of these contracts if performance became an issue.

The key UFAs that the Giants will have to deal with in 2018 are Pugh, Richburg, and Kennard.  I think the Giants will find a way to sign all three but that will cause them to not be very active in free agency.  With another strong draft in 2018, that would not be a problem.  What we may be about to see in the coming years are good drafts by the Giants paying off in terms of a reduced reliance on bringing in big ticket UFAs.

I continue to think that signing JPP for what amounts to a 29mm guarantee is a mistake.  Of course I hope I am wrong and that he stays healthy for the entire 2017 season and into the playoffs.  The Giants saved approximately 9mm in 2017 CAP space.  The contract is essentially a 3 year contract.  JPP's CAP numbers for 2018 and 2019 are 17.5mm and 19.5mm respectively.  At the end of 3 years JPP will have earned 49.5mm. The 4th year salary for JPP is 12.5mm with dead money being 5mm and a CAP number of 17,5mm.  He will be 32.  I hope he is doing so well that he will be worth more than 12.5mm.  If not, the 4th year will be renegotiated or he will be cut.  There is also the distinct possibility that he would retire depending on how his health holds up.  Regardless, it is critical that he is healthy for the next three years or else this contract was a huge mistake.  One caveat: A Super Bowl win in the coming season makes the contract well worthwhile regardless of what happens afterwards.  I remain thoroughly convinced that defense wins championships.  I can not imagine JPP not playing a huge role in a Super Bowl win this coming season.

That said, it would be wonderful to see Romeo Okwara develop into a complete DE that would be able to be a back up to Vernon and JPP and be that third pass rusher on obvious passing plays.  Whether it is Okwara or someone else, I am thinking that a third DE with excellent pass rushing skills is essential for the Giants to go deep into the playoffs. 

Manning, Vernon, Jenkins, Harrison, DRC and Pugh account for 85.8mm (50.5%) of the 169.8mm total cap space.  Due to the amount of dead money that would be generated, reducing the cap impact of any of the above mentioned players is not an option until after 2018.

Manning will be making 13mm in salary and accounts for 19mm in 2017 cap space.  If he does not have an outstanding season in 2017, I can envision that his roster bonus of 5mm in 2018 becoming a point of contention.  It is interesting to note that his salary decreases 3mm in 2018 but his cap goes up 3mm (19-22mm) in 2018.  In 2018 cutting him would generated 9mm in cap space savings but would also generate 12mm in 2019 dead money. Negotiating leverage switches from Eli to the Giants in 2019 which is the last year of his contract.