Big Blue Huddle

The one downside of many of the electric-car-related ETFs is they contain Tesla.   Tesla was bought too high in price and is taking a major beating since Musk used Tesla money to buy $1.5 billion in bit coins (which is major tanking)

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 13, 2022, 10:35:13 AMThe one downside of many of the electric-car-related ETFs is they contain Tesla.  Tesla was bought too high in price and is taking a major beating since Musk used Tesla money to buy $1.5 billion in bit coins (which is major tanking)

The stock price for Tesla has never made sense. It's stock value is many times more than all the car companies in the world combined. The price has been hyped for a long time by memes and young speculators...sorta like Gamestop being worth twice as much as Walmart...LOL. I still laugh every time I go to the local Walmart where it's practically impossible to find a decent parking spot among the hundreds of cars and when I leave, there is a very small shop across the street called Gamestop that almost never has a car parked out front. Then I always think about how it's worth more than Walmart to a particular group of investors...unbelievable

As far as Tesla goes, they are betting on Musk in general, not so much the car company. In my opinion anyway for what it's worth

crypto is getting a massive beat down today.  I suspect part of the problem is the feature so many people liked (it's not regulated) is coming back to bite investors in the arse. 


https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-firm-celsius-pauses-all-transfers-withdrawals-between-accounts-2022-06-13/

Bitcoin and Crypto are still getting hammered.  I wonder if people realized that if they have their assets in cash they can keep it in ensured accounts that get interest (which is rising) VS with Crypto where you just keep it in the cyber equivalent of under your mattress

Do any of you guys invest in Reits?  If so, which one?

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 18, 2022, 08:45:16 AMDo any of you guys invest in Reits?  If so, which one?

I did last year through an EFT, but haven't since last summer. Real estate is boom or bust in many cases and once inflation took hold, I bailed. I really thought energy alternatives and semiconductor shortages were the sectors that were going to shine. I was wrong. Been wrong an awful lot this year and my portfolio looks like a dumpster fire for the most part 

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 18, 2022, 10:02:16 AMI did last year through an EFT, but haven't since last summer. Real estate is boom or bust in many cases and once inflation took hold, I bailed. I really thought energy alternatives and semiconductor shortages were the sectors that were going to shine. I was wrong. Been wrong an awful lot this year and my portfolio looks like a dumpster fire for the most part 

You and pretty much everyone else. It sure has been ugly, and I doubt it's over at this point.

Just one guy's view... for those who have been patiently waiting, keep waiting patiently. LOL

Investors are already nibbling (or considering it) but an event this big takes a while for the dust to settle.

There will be multiple "false starts" after which a solid (or better) opportunity will be presented.

Bob

Covid and post-Covid (at least in terms of restrictions) is the sort of transformative event that can make people who can see the trends very wealthy.

My energy stocks are doing very well, but I think long-term EV, alternative energy, and electric cars will boom.

I don't see the trend of working from home to be a significant long-term trend, I think there will be some working from home, but I don't see it being more than maybe 10%

I mentioned REITs; I think residential, medical, long-term care, storage, and cell tower REITs will do well.  I believe mortgage REITs will struggle, as will commercial real estate (with the exception of local convenience), I don't see much future in industrial.   I think data centers will still do well, but I don't think we will see the growth they have enjoyed.  Farmland REITs will continue to do well.

I think streaming will continue to erode viewers from traditional broadcast TV.  I think cable is going to continue their fighting retreat.  I think Disney and HBO will be the leaders in streaming (I wouldn't count on Paramount)

I think Anheuser-Busch InBev is a good option as I think the opening up of society should increase beer consumption (as will the possible recession)

I think we will see a boost in AI, and at some point, semi-conductors will take off.

For the shorter term or for people in retirement, high dividend stocks with wide moats is the safest harbor.

I think when the interest rate increases reach a point where they will stop, that will be a great opportunity to grab a good preferred stock ETF yielding nice dividends.

I think the war on cash will continue, and I think that people are going to want more and more things delivered to them, and less and less will they go out to grab things.

short term, I think any industry in the wedding business is a good buy as there is a backlog of weddings (followed in a couple of years by a likely baby boom)

 I think long-term, there is a promising future in home building as there is an overall shortage of homes, but the current mortgage rates are an issue.

Quote from: Bob In PA on June 18, 2022, 10:49:34 AMJust one guy's view... for those who have been patiently waiting, keep waiting patiently. LOL

Investors are already nibbling (or considering it) but an event this big takes a while for the dust to settle.

There will be multiple "false starts" after which a solid (or better) opportunity will be presented.

Bob

Do you know what's funny, Bob?  Barron's which was practically cheerleading for a bear market is now running banner articles how the turnaround is just around the corner

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 19, 2022, 07:17:44 AMDo you know what's funny, Bob?  Barron's which was practically cheerleading for a bear market is now running banner articles how the turnaround is just around the corner

Rich: By sheer coincidence, I signed up about a week ago for a month of Barron's on-line, so I saw (and was stunned by) the gigantic front-page image they displayed this week... I can't reproduce it, but here is the text:

Cover image
The Selloff Will Eventually End. You Can Bet On It.

Plenty can still go wrong for stocks. But a prime buying opportunity might be just around the corner.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51655511568?mod=hp_HERO

Bob

I will add one other thing to my trends thoughts.   While I think EVs and renewable energy is the wave of the future, I don't see fossil fuels tanking anytime soon with the exception of coal which is dirty and a PITA to handle and burn.

The demand for energy is climbing at a rate that alternative energy doesn't keep up


As for EV vehicles, I will say I have heard two things lately that suggest that I may be overly optimistic in my forecast of that means of transportation.  One is the group that forecasts EV sales downgraded their projections a little bit and second I saw a survey that suggests gas prices don't play a large role in someone's decision to purchase an EV.   Range and charging stations along with price are the drivers.   Of course, with the bulk of the current EVs being on the luxury end, I guess gas prices don't make a world of difference when you are talking vehicles in the near $50K range and higher.

While I see more charging facilities now than say 10 years ago, it's not like I am seeing new charging stations being built anywhere (even though I believe the infrastructure bill that was passed includes funding for more such stations)

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 19, 2022, 08:16:05 AMI will add one other thing to my trends thoughts.  While I think EVs and renewable energy is the wave of the future, I don't see fossil fuels tanking anytime soon with the exception of coal which is dirty and a PITA to handle and burn.

The demand for energy is climbing at a rate that alternative energy doesn't keep up


As for EV vehicles, I will say I have heard two things lately that suggest that I may be overly optimistic in my forecast of that means of transportation.  One is the group that forecasts EV sales downgraded their projections a little bit and second I saw a survey that suggests gas prices don't play a large role in someone's decision to purchase an EV.  Range and charging stations along with price are the drivers.  Of course, with the bulk of the current EVs being on the luxury end, I guess gas prices don't make a world of difference when you are talking vehicles in the near $50K range and higher.

While I see more charging facilities now than say 10 years ago, it's not like I am seeing new charging stations being built anywhere (even though I believe the infrastructure bill that was passed includes funding for more such stations)

When the Electric Vehicle Freedom Act (EV Freedom Act H.R. 5770) was passed, the goal was to establish a network of EV charging stations (500,000 new stations) I jumped all over EVgo, Chargepoint, Volta, and Wall Box (home charging stations) and stocks in those companies jumped between 25 - 100% in the following days. I felt like a genius for getting on board ahead of the rush to buy. The prices started returning towards a downward trend as savvy buyers took their profits. I did not    Since then, the stock prices of the companies building the stations have steadily gone back down to where they were before the "Great Surge" (a little pun on electricity and the stock market). I thought for sure the prices would hold and steadily rise (hopefully like Tesla) - it did not

It's just impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the market the last few months. Investors are a skittish bunch and bail on any news that they might lose some money. The fed tampering with rates to try and stall inflation has been a killer

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 19, 2022, 09:39:06 AMWhen the Electric Vehicle Freedom Act (EV Freedom Act H.R. 5770) was passed, the goal was to establish a network of EV charging stations (500,000 new stations) I jumped all over EVgo, Chargepoint, Volta, and Wall Box (home charging stations) and stocks in those companies jumped between 25 - 100% in the following days. I felt like a genius for getting on board ahead of the rush to buy. The prices started returning towards a downward trend as savvy buyers took their profits. I did not    Since then, the stock prices of the companies building the stations have steadily gone back down to where they were before the "Great Surge" (a little pun on electricity and the stock market). I thought for sure the prices would hold and steadily rise (hopefully like Tesla) - it did not

It's just impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the market the last few months. Investors are a skittish bunch and bail on any news that they might lose some money. The fed tampering with rates to try and stall inflation has been a killer

I think that EVs will eventually become the domain of the current auto makers rather than the upstart EV companies.