Big Blue Huddle

Kevin Cole

@Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders
.






https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1786054520390266961

So, how many winning teams has this Kevin character built?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 02, 2024, 11:59:48 AMKevin Cole

@Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders
.






https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1786054520390266961

One would think an "analytics" guy would know Nabers wasn't drafted in the top 5. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on May 02, 2024, 12:04:50 PMOne would think an "analytics" guy would know Nabers wasn't drafted in the top 5. 

Interesting point.   I picked up on the fact that he seemed unaware that Nubins was drafted with a low 2nd round pick rather than the Giants' second-round pick (which the Giants had traded away for Burns)

I'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on May 02, 2024, 12:29:36 PMI'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.

I think the bigger flaw is not fully appreciating the limitations of analytics.  If you are drafting a QB, you can't say, "Well, historically, you have less than a 50% chance of success with that pick".  Those sorts of claims hold true if you were drafting, say, a hundred QBs.  In that case, likely less than 50 would be hits.  However, in the case of a single pick, while those stats can give a vague sense of one's chances of success, the individual pick and the factors around that pick (support and coaching) will have a far greater impact.

Far be it for me to defend the Giants, as the last decade plus proves that they have been well behind average as a franchise, but this guy makes zero sense.  Take JJ just because positional value dictates a QB?  Take an OT and move him to ROT just like we did a few years ago?  And what, make trades to shake things up and be more inspiring?  This guy sounds like an idiot.

Sure, I could have made a good case to trade down in the first and get more picks and draft into the WR strength in the draft, but I give the Giants credit for not trading up, or not taking a QB at 6 they did not have convictions on.  They will be judged harshly if they missed on QB, but they didn't do the "easy" thing and pick a QB and try to do something with a player that they didn't believe in.

It's been well reported they tried to get #3.

If the seller doesn't want to sell. There's nothing you can do. That's so simple.

Nabers was 6 not Top 5, Harrison was Top 5.

Had the Giants had a Top 5 pick I think we all can agree there is no guarantee Nabers would not have been the pick.
Furthermore, Jamar Chase and waddle just went 5 and 6 2 seasons ago. Both teams got great value

The Giants did trade, the 39th pick in the 2nd for Burns

RE: Safety in the 2nd round- I do not know But the G-men got the #1 rated safety in the draft and a Top 35 player in the draft with the 47 pick at a huge need after the departure of Mckinney

Much of this person's claims are wrong and the one that is not blatantly incorrect is debatable

An analytics professional  should be well aware value is also analyzed by the number at the position, as well as, position by round . Probabilities drastically change based on the which rated prospect at a position is selected.

Quote from: ViewFromSection129 on May 02, 2024, 12:42:48 PMFar be it for me to defend the Giants, as the last decade plus proves that they have been well behind average as a franchise, but this guy makes zero sense.  Take JJ just because positional value dictates a QB?  Take an OT and move him to ROT just like we did a few years ago?  And what, make trades to shake things up and be more inspiring?  This guy sounds like an idiot.

Sure, I could have made a good case to trade down in the first and get more picks and draft into the WR strength in the draft, but I give the Giants credit for not trading up, or not taking a QB at 6 they did not have convictions on.  They will be judged harshly if they missed on QB, but they didn't do the "easy" thing and pick a QB and try to do something with a player that they didn't believe in.

Not to mention the fact that it takes 2 to tango and we have no way of knowing if there even was the opportunity to trade down.  Just like it is apparent that there really was no way to trade up, since absent a ridiculous offer the Pats weren't trading.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 02, 2024, 11:59:48 AMKevin Cole

@Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders
.








https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1786054520390266961

GM's generally shouldn't draft the lower impact positions top of round 1 (unless they have a HOF level grade and their 'greatness' transcends the lower impact of the position). However, once you get to round 2 and 35-40 picks in and you find a Kenny Phillips or a Xavier McKinney or a Chris Snee do you pass on them then too when they have a 10-year high level starter or multiple pro-bowls written all over them?


Secondly, the no-trades argument when Schoen has both traded up and traded down in the two drafts before AND it was quite evident they were heavily involved in trying to trade up for a QB in this one with an absolutely elite grade in Maye.

His argument is weak and seems like he is 'fishing ' to disparage Scheon and the Giants for click bait.

We got 2 day 1 starters in major positions of need. if these guys pan out its a major home run