Big Blue Huddle

I know there have been a lot of Daniel Jones threads recently, but I don't recall one that has actually attempted to speculate on the threshold of what he needs to do to avoid being cut after this season, which we know his contract is designed to allow them to do if they so choose.

What exactly do you think he needs to do in 2024 (at minimum) to avoid being gone after this season?

1. Stay injury free
2. Stop walking into sacks (ala Seattle game per PFF podcast).
3. Boom it downfield where applicable - trust the line and the guy to get open
4. Stop seeing ghosts
5. Restructure that contract - those future cap hits are brutal.

I don't have a number of yards or amount ot TDs but be in the top 10-13 of those categories.

That's off the top of my head and if he hits those, I'll be delighted. It means we've done okay.

 

He needs to show he can produce in the 2 minute drill both before halftime and especially at the end of the games. He has been sporadic at best in that area.

Lastly, he must win a playoff game this year and he has to beat Dallas and Philadelphia at least once each.

WIN

What I am expecting from him with the additions of Nabers, Theo, and the upgrades on the O line.

3,500-4,000 Yards
22-30 TD's
10-12 Int
65%
400-500 Yards rushing
95.0-98.0 RTG

I think he has to hit production and numbers like this for the Giants to keep him for the remainder of his three-year contract.

With the additions that he has, combined with him taking more chances, I believe this is within reason.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 01:41:22 PMWhat I am expecting from him with the additions of Nabers, Theo, and the upgrades on the O line.

3,500-4,000 Yards
22-30 TD's
10-12 Int
65%
400-500 Yards rushing
95.0-98.0 RTG

I think he has to hit production and numbers like this for the Giants to keep him for the remainder of his three-year contract.

With the additions that he has, combined with him taking more chances, I believe this is within reason.

If he can do that he will be in the Pro Bowl and we will be deep in the playoffs. One can only hope

I don't think there's anything he can do. With his health concerns even if he throws for 4,000 and 30tds which is extremely unlikely he can't be trusted to stay healthy. Plus I believe Schoen and Daboll want their own guy, which also likely buys them more time, and this will be the perfect time for them to let him go.

My best guess-  Jones needs to do what he did in 2022, lead the team to a record that makes it difficult to impossible to draft his replacement

My personal view:

1. I think Jones would need to have another injury-free year like he did in 2022. Missing one game with a mild ankle sprain wouldn't be the end of the world, but he can't have another season where he misses multiple games with a significant injury, as he has in four out of his five seasons in this league.

2. The team will need to have at least a decent season. Of course, this isn't all on Jones, but given QB is the most important position, I think he'll have a hard time being brought back if they have another season with fewer than 8 or 9 wins. He'd have to have an insanely productive season and they'd need to lose a lot of 38-35, shootout type games for this to not be the case.

3. He will need to be a legitimately productive passer. Absolute bare bones minimum of 3800 passing yards and 25 passing TDs. No excuses. He's getting paid too much to be a dink and dunk, 3200 yard/15 TD guy, and they know it.

4. Ball security: Max of 11/12 INTs if his passing TDs are in the 25-29 range, and a max of 14/15 if he's above 30 passing TDs. Fumbles need to be low/mid single digits again.

5. Risk appetite: Jones will need to take more risky shots downfield and not always opt for the closest receiver. Tyrod Taylor did it last year on the same team, and with Nabers and better O linemen Jones needs to do it this year.

6. Pocket/rush awareness: Jones will have to show marked improvement in this area.


Personally, I think all of the above will need to happen for the Giants to want to keep him beyond this season. Right now I believe he is on the outside looking in. He will have to have a significantly better season than he has ever had to be brought back. The economics just don't work otherwise.

I don't think a statistical repeat of his 2022 season will be enough in year six. They gave him the contract after that year with the hope that he would build on that performance and make further strides, not that he'd settle into that productivity level for the long haul.

I think the importance of his passing TD increase is heightened this year. Coming off an ACL we have to expect a noticeable drop off in rushing production. Also a second neck injury might dilute any goal line keepers.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 05, 2024, 02:39:41 PMMy personal view:

1. I think Jones would need to have another injury-free year like he did in 2022. Missing one game with a mild ankle sprain wouldn't be the end of the world, but he can't have another season where he misses multiple games with a significant injury, as he has in four out of his five seasons in this league.

2. The team will need to have at least a decent season. Of course, this isn't all on Jones, but given QB is the most important position, I think he'll have a hard time being brought back if they have another season with fewer than 8 or 9 wins. He'd have to have an insanely productive season and they'd need to lose a lot of 38-35, shootout type games for this to not be the case.

3. He will need to be a legitimately productive passer. Absolute bare bones minimum of 3800 passing yards and 25 passing TDs. No excuses. He's getting paid too much to be a dink and dunk, 3200 yard/15 TD guy, and they know it.

4. Ball security: Max of 11/12 INTs if his passing TDs are in the 25-29 range, and a max of 14/15 if he's above 30 passing TDs. Fumbles need to be low/mid single digits again.

5. Risk appetite: Jones will need to take more risky shots downfield and not always opt for the closest receiver. Tyrod Taylor did it last year on the same team, and with Nabers and better O linemen Jones needs to do it this year.

6. Pocket/rush awareness: Jones will have to show marked improvement in this area.


Personally, I think all of the above will need to happen for the Giants to want to keep him beyond this season. Right now I believe he is on the outside looking in. He will have to have a significantly better season than he has ever had to be brought back. The economics just don't work otherwise.

I don't think a statistical repeat of his 2022 season will be enough in year six. They gave him the contract after that year with the hope that he would build on that performance and make further strides, not that he'd settle into that productivity level for the long haul.

Dave,

By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?

Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.

They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.

If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.

Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.

Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?

Curious your thoughts?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 04:19:02 PMDave,

By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?

Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.

They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.

If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.

Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.

Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?

Curious your thoughts?

 In the other thread about Eli, if memory serves, you were sort of complaining that people were 'cheery picking' about Eli and ONE year with a bad OL. Well, aren't you guilty of the same thing when you continually bring up the ONE year Jones had a decent enough year, 2022? For the most part, in most of the other years, Jones had been bad, in fact, worse than bad, awful would be a better term.
I'm not picking on you, but this has been a constant with people who think Jones is good and all he needs is a good OL, great WRs, and a good running game to be successful. As Dave said, he really needs to change his approach to the game. He simply doesn't even look downfield anymore, he puts the ball way and runs way too often, especially for an injury-prone QB. He still stares down too many receivers and just opts to dump it off just way too often.
PLUS, who says our OL will be that much better this year? All we can do is hope.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 04:19:02 PMDave,

By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?

Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.

They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.

If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.

Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.

Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?

Curious your thoughts?

SXD,

If they were to make the playoffs and actually win two playoff games (a hypothetical that I view as highly unlikely), it's very possible they might go with a wait and see approach at the QB position, yes. I agree that if they were drafting that low they'd be in a terrible position to get anyone in the draft that they'd be comfortable starting in 2025.

I cannot say whether I think it would be wiser or not to wait with only the above info provided. There are too many moving parts and unknown variables involved for me to be able to answer that today. Among other considerations, the draft is not the only way to get a new QB.

Win the NFC Championship game

Produce.

I was going to say "win games" but I think there's a scenario where he produces but the team doesn't win, and he still comes out looking favorably.

The winning thing isn't just a Daniel Jones problem. That problem existed before DJ arrived. The most you can say is he couldn't elevate them out of the dysfunction. Few QBs (if any) would've. You've got to be careful reading too much into that, given the overall state.

However - careers are short and struggle is real. As Perry Fewell told Justin Tuck once (after his shoulder injury) "you don't get these years back". First time in his career he's got a legit WR1. Good slot WR. He's set up to have success in the passing game. I myself have defended him many times pointing out the impossible nature of having a bad OL w/bad skill players.

If he fails to produce, there's no more wondering what if. He's got enough now.*


*Provided Nabers isn't a bust, of course.