Big Blue Huddle

This topic was touched upon in another thread, so I went to my PFF Account and looked into it further. Keeping in mind that there were seasons that Jones was injured, I looked at % of pressures.

2023
Among QB's with high dropback under pressure of 80 or more, Jones allowed the 6th highest % with 20%. Those who gave up more were Wilson-24.3%, Hurts-22.2%, Mahomes-21.5%, Jackson-21.2% and Allen-20.5%. All experienced top QB's. 55.1% of total pressures for Jones came from RG and RT.

Now here is the interesting part. Jones QB own pressure by season:

2019- 16.1
2020- 9.4
2021- 8.5
2022- 15.2
2023- 20.0

Jones was a Rookie in 2019, so I can understand the number. Jason Garrett and his QB Coach likely spent the most time with Jones in 2020 and 2021. The percentage spiked under Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney.

Quote from: Ed Vette on September 06, 2024, 12:19:53 PM55.1% of total pressures for Jones came from RG and RT.

No surprise there.

Quote from: Ed Vette on September 06, 2024, 12:19:53 PMThis topic was touched upon in another thread, so I went to my PFF Account and looked into it further. Keeping in mind that there were seasons that Jones was injured, I looked at % of pressures.

2023
Among QB's with high dropback under pressure of 80 or more, Jones allowed the 6th highest % with 20%. Those who gave up more were Wilson-24.3%, Hurts-22.2%, Mahomes-21.5%, Jackson-21.2% and Allen-20.5%. All experienced top QB's. 55.1% of total pressures for Jones came from RG and RT.

Now here is the interesting part. Jones QB own pressure by season:

2019- 16.1
2020- 9.4
2021- 8.5
2022- 15.2
2023- 20.0

Jones was a Rookie in 2019, so I can understand the number. Jason Garrett and his QB Coach likely spent the most time with Jones in 2020 and 2021. The percentage spiked under Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney.

Data is somewhat counter-intuitive. You would expect with lower pressure, Jones would be more effective. 2020 and 2021 were not productive years by any stretch of the imagination. 2023 snaps are so low its difficult to extrapolate a trend out from.

I would not that pressure doesn't describe how the pressure is occurring. Mahomes, Jackson, Allen--it's very possible (not saying this is the case) defenses are being more aggressive to try and manufacture mistakes, having to send extra defenders (including potential spies)... and that opens up opportunities on the back end. The Giants' OL has been so consistently putrid it seems as if little more than 4 rushers is needed to generate pressure against the Giants, which obviously doesn't leave holes in the secondary to exploit.

Thanks for this info.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on September 06, 2024, 12:28:24 PMData is somewhat counter-intuitive. You would expect with lower pressure, Jones would be more effective. 2020 and 2021 were not productive years by any stretch of the imagination. 2023 snaps are so low its difficult to extrapolate a trend out from.

I would not that pressure doesn't describe how the pressure is occurring. Mahomes, Jackson, Allen--it's very possible (not saying this is the case) defenses are being more aggressive to try and manufacture mistakes, having to send extra defenders (including potential spies)... and that opens up opportunities on the back end. The Giants' OL has been so consistently putrid it seems as if little more than 4 rushers is needed to generate pressure against the Giants, which obviously doesn't leave holes in the secondary to exploit.

Thanks for this info.

20-21 Barkley played 15 games over the two years and had a combined 627 yards and 3.4 YPC, so there is that. The odd thing is that the 2020 Receiving Corp went from 8th best to 31st in 2021.

QuoteAmong QB's with high dropback under pressure of 80 or more, Jones allowed the 6th highest % with 20%. Those who gave up more were Wilson-24.3%, Hurts-22.2%, Mahomes-21.5%, Jackson-21.2% and Allen-20.5%.

Ed,

This gave me some pause.  In my opinion, whenever you develop a methodology that produces some sort of measure or grade, it's always worth seeing if the results pass the eyeball test.   I will say I have a hard time believing that some of the best QBs in the league are the ones most responsible for their own sacks.  That indicates to me that perhaps there is a flaw in the methodology. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 06, 2024, 01:02:27 PMEd,

This gave me some pause.  In my opinion, whenever you develop a methodology that produces some sort of measure or grade, it's always worth seeing if the results pass the eyeball test.   I will say I have a hard time believing that some of the best QBs in the league are the ones most responsible for their own sacks.  That indicates to me that perhaps there is a flaw in the methodology. 

Rich: I think I can explain the seeming contradiction.

Really good QB's actually do a lot of guessing (based on combined knowledge, experience and confidence).

Brett Favre was famous for that and IMO it explains his relatively high (for a HOF'er) INT percentage.

Some QB's, after attaining a certain level of success, virtually throw caution to the wind as their rate of correct guessing rises.  They keep "pushing their luck" until their luck pushes back on them (i.e., more INT's than you would expect).  Also, playing with the lead will almost inevitably foster more chance-taking.

In the case of Jones, high school was the last time he had an above-average offensive line plus a cadre of above-average WR's and pass-catching TE's and RB's. I can assure you he does not have the level of confidence needed to succeed in the NFL, and this portends, IMO, a likely average per-pass-play "time penalty" of between one-half and three-quarters of a second.  Combine this with what many of our members believe (that he just doesn't see the field as fast or as correctly as the very best QB's) and you've got a problem. I'm still not sure I agree that he's not seeing the field as well as required, but it really won't matter because if he fails for ANY reason this season (even including injury to himself or others) there's an almost zero chance they'll keep him.

Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 06, 2024, 01:02:27 PMEd,

This gave me some pause.  In my opinion, whenever you develop a methodology that produces some sort of measure or grade, it's always worth seeing if the results pass the eyeball test.   I will say I have a hard time believing that some of the best QBs in the league are the ones most responsible for their own sacks.  That indicates to me that perhaps there is a flaw in the methodology. 

It did with me too. All those QBs are Mobile QBs and they as Bob said, take chances, extend plays and they don't always avoid the rush. In their case, it's not about moving the TE or RB, holding the ball too long and busting the route, picking up the way the pressure is coming, identifying the safety or Corner Blitz, or changing the play. They get themselves in trouble, but they are successful much more often than not.