Spurious Correlation? Comparing the 1988 and 2010 Seasons...

[Fred Exley]

Reflecting back over the last week on this year's disappointing Giants campaign, I found myself searching my memory for a comparable season in which the team finished with a double digit win total, but missed the playoffs in such heartbreaking fashion. Well, I didn't have to think long before coming up with 1988.

The more I thought and read about the 1988 season, the more correlations with 2010 became apparent. As food for thought, here is a list of the similarities:

-The 1988 and 2010 teams both finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs.

-Both teams missed a wild card birth by virtue of tiebreakers that were not decided until the final day of the season.

-Both teams finished second to the Eagles in the NFC East despite earning an identical 10-6 record. Both teams were swept by their rivals from Philadelphia.

-Both teams played the Eagles at home late in the season with a chance to take control of the division. Both teams lost those games on improbable, bizarre comebacks. In 1988, the Giants had a 17-10 lead late in the game, having effectively shut down the Eagles talented, mobile QB Randall Cunningham. With time running out, Cunningham threw to TE Keith Jackson, who then fumbled the ball forward into the end zone. A young Cris Carter fell on the ball for the tying touchdown. In overtime, Jeff Hostetler, who replaced an injured Phil Simms, threw an interception deep in his own territory. The Eagles lined up for a game winning field goal, but the kick was blocked by Lawrence Taylor. With all the surreal horror of Desean Jackson's punt return, Eagles DE Clyde Simmons picked up the fumble and ran about 20 yards for the winning touchdown.

-Both teams had another chance, after losing twice to Philly, to secure a playoff spot and win the division, and both failed miserably. While the 2010 Giants were trounced by a good Green Bay team, the 1988 squad played the woeful Jets in the season's final week. A victory would have won them the NFC East and ensured a first round playoff bye. The Giants were undone that day by atrocious special teams coverage and poor pass blocking, and lost 27-21 when Ken O'Brien hit Al Toon for a score with seconds left on the clock.

-Both teams were trying to redeem themselves after unexpected losing seasons that followed Super Bowl success. The 1987 Giants slipped into last place with a 6-9 record just one year after winning the Lombardi trophy. The 2009 Giants fell to 8-8 after a championship in 2007 and an NFC-best regular season in 2008.

-Both teams had Super Bowl winning quarterbacks who suffered harsh criticism from media and fans. Phil Simms was thought of as too fragile, too mistake-prone to lead the Giants to a championship. These perceptions continued for some even after his Super Bowl MVP performance, and crescendoed in '88 with the frustration of a second straight playoff-less finish. Many fans have similarly targeted Eli Manning this year.

-Both teams had Super Bowl winning coaches who's futures were questioned after the season's disappointments. Bill Parcells chaffed at media criticism and entertained offers to leave New York to become the coach of the Atlanta Falcons in the 1989 offseason.

It is impossible for us to know at this point how the future will play out for this era of Giants players and coaches, but we can only hope the aftermath of the 1988 debacle will be instructional. After the '88 season, the Giants front office and coaching staff did not endorse wholesale changes. Some minor roster tweaks to strengthen Special Teams and reshuffle the offensive line, coupled with the drafting of more talent in the defensive backfield led to a division title in 1989 and a Super Bowl victory in 1990.

The same core of players, with the same coaches preaching essentially the same philosophy, rebounded from the malaise of 1988 to become champions. The team recognized that while the results on the field had been maddeningly frustrating, they were not indicative of major problems with the personnel or leadership. That conclusion, unpopular as it was at the time, led to the team's second Super Bowl title.

Food for thought.

[jimv]

Excellent recap, Fred!!

[MightyGiants]

Very well done, thanks for posting this.

[President Rick]

one blip in the overall [very fine] seasonal comparison, but perhaps an ominous sign...that poor Giants showing in the 87 season was the result of that being a strike year.  we were the defending SB champs and we never got out of the gate.   our replacements were worse than the real keanu reeves playing qb for real for us.  our non-replacement record in 87 was pretty good as I recall.  anyway, it's interesting to think, and shudder, about the implications of a lockout for some or all of 11 which I hope does not occur. 
long way until summer, but Go Giants.

[Fred Exley]

Mr. President:

In considering the relationship between the 1987 and 2009 seasons as post-Super Bowl collapses, the '09 team was 8-8 while the non-scab '87 squad went 6-6. A .500 finish could definitely be considered a disappointment for a defending champion.

That said, I agree the impending specter of a lockout in 2011 makes revisiting the Giants performances in the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons an interesting idea. Perhaps I will do a write up on that topic sometime soon.

[MightyGiants]

The Eagles seem to have been the NFC east biggest thorn in the Giants side for the past few decades.  Freak plays, spectacular come backs, sweeps and beating them out seem to be the norm