Ther BBH/Big Hitter's Scouting Report: Washington Offense

[bighitterdalama]

Washington Offense

The Washington Football Team, who began the season 1-3, have since won six their last seven games and now sits at 7-4. The turn-around began in a Week 6 Thursday night victory over the Bears, a game in which starting quarterback Carson Wentz suffered a finger injury that landed him on the IR. In the six games since that injury, under replacement quarterback Taylor Heinicke, Washington is 5-1. It's easy to attribute this recent success to the QB switch, an assumption which may in part be correct but which in fact is a bit more complex. It is likely more correct to say that the QB switch necessitated a change in the offensive system, a switch that has shown solid success. In six games with Wentz at quarterback, Washington averaged 39 passes per game; in the six games under Heinicke, the offense has averaged just 28 passes/game. The updated Washington offense is committed to a ball control style of play, a commitment that has produced results. Washington's average time of possession, 32:45, currently sits #1 in the NFL; in the past three games, their TOP has been a very impressive 36:09.

Ron Rivera coached at Carolina from 2011-2019. Fired after 2019 by the Panthers, Rivera was subsequently hired by Washington. Rivera hired Scott Turner, his QB coach/interim OC at Carolina, to be his new offensive coordinator. Like Rivera, Turner brings an old-school attitude to the game. Unfortunately for Washington, the strong arm of Carson Wentz combined with an impressive array of wide receivers tempted Turner into an early-season level of passing that was quite unacceptable. Wentz' injury resulted in a course adjustment back towards the power run/ball control offense that both Turner and Rivera instinctively prefer.  A side effect of this change has been a statistically impressive improvement in pass protection: in six games, Wentz was sacked 23 times for minus 140 yards; in the six games since, Heinicke has been sacked just nine times for minus 72 yards. Combine the recent success of this ball-control offense with a defense that that has allowed the 8th fewest first downs and whose 33% third down efficiency is the league's 4th best, the result is a team that is able to control the game through clock management and which thereby limits the offensive possessions of the opposition.

Outside of time of possession, Washington's offense, from a statistical point of view, is unimpressive. They are 23rd in yards/game (324.9 Y/G) and 24th in points (19.4 PPG). They average 121.1 rushing yards/game (15th). They have the 4th most rushing attempts (365) but are 26th in yards/carry at 4.0. Washington averages 203.8 passing yards/game (24th) with a completion rate 61.5 (28th). They are averaging 6.1 yards/attempt and 9.9 yards/completion, both low numbers. They are tied for 10th in touchdown passes with 17 but also have 11 interceptions. Overall, they have allowed 32 sacks for minus 212 yards, 8th and 9th best in the league. They have a season-long run/pass ratio of 45.6. Washington's third-down efficiency is a mediocre 36.8% (26th), while they are presently 8/16 on 4th down attempts. The Washington offense has committed 66 penalties (13th most) for 625 penalty yards (6th most). The team is an even zero in plus/minus turnover ratio: 3 fumbles lost/11 interception thrown by the offense vs 7 fumble recoveries and 7 interceptions by the defense.

Washington runs 12 personnel about 30%, 11 personnel about 70%. Washington very rarely runs 20 personnel, having featured two backs on only 12 out of 834 offensive snaps. The team averages 1.29 tight ends/snap and 2.69 wide receivers/snap. "Tackle eligible" is almost non-existent, having occurred only twice all season. Running backs have been targeted with 24.5% of the passing attempts. The completion rate to the backs is 77.7%, with an average of 6.9 yards/completion and 5.4 yards/attempt. Tight ends have been targeted with 19% of the attempts, with a completion rate of just 57.5%. Passes to the TE average 9.2 yards/completion and 5.3 yards/attempt. Wide receivers have been targeted with 56.5% of the passes, with a completion rate of 61.3. Wide receivers average 13.3 yards/completion and 8.1 yards/attempt. Of Washington's 17 touchdown passes, 3 have gone to running backs, 2 to tight ends, and 12 to wide outs. Despite its run-heavy offense, Washington has just 7 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Offensive Line

Offensive line, always a strength of the Washington Football Team, has been in a bit of a flux the past few seasons. All-World left tackle Trent Williams left in 2020 for San Francisco, where he is currently the top-rated tackle in the NFL. Right tackle Morgan Moses left in 2021, spending a year with the Jets before signing on this season with Baltimore, where he continues to somehow get away with holding on every pass play. Five-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Scherff left last spring for Jacksonville. Combine these losses with several key 2022 injuries, and one gets a WFT that has scrambled to put together a competent offensive line. This they have done, creating a winnable if unspectacular line that currently ranks 16th in run blocking and 25th in pass blocking. Let's take a look.

Left tackle Charles Leno Jr has been a pleasant surprise. A 2014 seventh-round draft pick of the Bears, the 31-year-old Boise State grad spent seven years in Chicago before joining Washington in 2021. Leno, who has played all 834 offensive snaps, has earned year-to-date PFF grades of 57.6 run blocking, 83.7 pass blocking, and 74.2 overall, ranking #17 out of 77 qualifying tackles. Samuel Cosmi began the season as the WFT's right tackle. Cosmi, a second-year former second-round pick from Texas, started the first four games of the season, playing well. He subsequently suffered a right thumb injury that caused him to miss Weeks 5-7. Since his return, Cosmi has split time at RT with Cornelius Lucas. Cosmi, who has played 398 (48%) of the offensive snaps, continues to grade well, scoring PFF grades of 83.8(run)/70.0(pass pro)/78.8(overall), ranking #12 of 77. Lucas, a journeyman tackle who was a 2014 UDFA out of Kansas State, has played moderately well. In 438 (52%) of the snaps, he grades 69.9(run)/58.0(pass pro)/64.9(overall), ranking #50 of 77.

Veteran Chase Roullier began the season as the starting center. Roullier subsequently suffered a knee injury at the end of the Week 2 loss to the Lions and has since been placed on season-ending IR. In 150 snaps, the 2017 sixth-round pick from Wyoming scored 52.6(run)/60.4(pass)/56.3(overall). Roullier's initial replacement was veteran Wes Schweitzer. Schweitzer, who had 20 snaps in Week1, played all 77 Week 3 snaps but suffered a severe concussion which landed him on IR. In 97 snaps, the 29-year-old Schweitzer graded 64.0/32.1/50.2. Schweitzer was designated to return this week but whether he is active Sunday is highly questionable. Schweitzer replacement for Weeks 4 & 5 was veteran Nick Martin. Originally the Texans' 2017 second-round pick from Notre Dame, Martin played poorly: in 137 snaps, he graded 58.3(run)/30.1(pass pro)/44.3 (overall). Following Week 5, Martin was replaced as starter by 31-year-old veteran Tyler Larsen. A 2014 UDFA signing by the Panthers, Larsen has played every snap at center since taking over from Martin. In 469 snaps, he grades 61.7/33.7/56.4, ranking #27 out of 38 qualifying centers.

Left guard Andrew Norwell, late of the Jacksonville Jaguars, was a solid 2022 FA acquisition. A 2014 UDFA signing by the Jags, the former Ohio State Buceye has been decent, if not spectacular. In 831 (out a possible 834) offensive snaps, Norwell grades 60.2(run)/55.9(pass)/57.5(overall), ranking #54 out of 81 qualifying guards. Right guard Trai Turner, a former 2014 third-round pick from LSU, began the season as the starter. Turner played every down before injuring his ankle/knee early in the Week 4 loss to Dallas. Turner missed the next three games, then returned as starter in Week 8. Turner played every down Weeks 8-11, then re-injured his knee last week vs Atlanta. He has not participated in practice this week and is, at best, questionable for Sunday. If Turner is unable to play, his likely replacement is 2020 fourth-round pick Sahhdiq Charles. Charles, who started earlier in Turner's absence, has played 290 snaps. He grades 49.7/29.7/42.3, ranking #75 out of 81 qualifying guards.

Running Backs

Washington is solid at running back. Starter Antonio Gibson, a third-year/former third-round pick from Memphis, is a productive player in both the run and pass games. Year to date, in 388 offensive snaps, Gibson has 476 rushing yards on 130 carries, 3.7 yards/carry, and three rushing touchdowns, and has 40 catches on 47 targets for 306 yards, 7.7 yards/catch, and 2 receiving touchdowns. Gibson, who had six fumbles in 2021, has cleaned up that issue: he has zero fumbles in 2022. Gibson grades 71.2(run)/82.3(receiving)/76.9(overall), ranking 14 out of 63 qualifying running backs. Rookie Brian Robinson, a third-round pick from Alabama, was victim to a robbery/shooting on August 28, an incident that left him with gunshot wounds to his knee and glute. Robinson missed the season's first four games but has since returned to full-time duty. A productive player, Robinson, in 218 snaps, has 126 carries for 467 rushing yards, 3.7 Y/C, and 2 touchdowns, and has caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 27 yards, 4.5 Y/C, and 1 touchdown. Robinson grades 83.5(run)/53.8(receiving)/83.0(0verall), ranking #8 of 63. 29-year-old J.D. McKissic remains Washington's third-down "change of pace" back. A 2016 UDFA from Arkansas State, McKissic, in 221 snaps, has 22 carries for 95 yards, 4.3 Y/C, and 27 catches on 40 targets for 173 yards, 6.4 Y/C. McKissic grades 53.8/54.4/54.2, earning a rank of 59/63. The #4 back, Jonathan Williams, has just 14 offensive snaps. Williams does 76 yards on 10 carries, an average of 7.6 Y/C.

Tight Ends

31-year-old journeyman Logan Thomas lists as Washington's starting tight end. A college quarterback at Virginia Tech, Thomas, a 2014 fourth-round pick, played his first three years in the NFL as a backup QB before switching to tight end. In 2022, in 438 snaps, Thomas has 21 catches on 36 targets for 190 yards, 9.0 Y/C, and 1 touchdown. Thomas earns PFF grades pf 58.6(receiving)/52.4(run blocking)56.8(overall), ranking #50 out of 69 qualifying tight ends. Thomas was listed as "limited" in Wednesday's injury report with a rib injury. #2 tight end John Bates is a 2021 fourth-round pick from Boise State. In 333 snaps, Bates has 14 catches on 22 targets for 108 yards, 7.7 Y/C, and 1 touchdown. Rookies Cole Turner, a fifth-round pick from Nevada, and Armani Rogers, a UDFA from Ohio, have been used primarily as a blockers. On the season, Turner, in 158 snaps, has 2 catches on 9 targets for 23 yards, 11.5 Y/C. Turner grades 47.6(receiving)/73.2(run blocking)/55.1(overall). Rogers, in 147 snaps, has 5 catches on 6 targets for 64 yards, 12.8 Y/C. Rogers also has one carry for 24 yards. Rogers grades 65.3/53.3/61.2.

Wide Receivers

Fourth-year wide out Terry McLaurin is solid as both a possession receiver and as a deep threat. Pretty much an every down player, and hence an every down threat, McLaurin has played 754, or 90%, of the 834 offensive snaps. To date, he has 54 catches on 86 targets for 840 yards, 15.6 yards/catch, and 2 touchdowns. McLaurin also has 6 carries for 17 yards; he does have one fumble. McLaurin grades 77.8(receiving)/37.7(run)/77.0(overall), ranking 19 out of 119 qualifying wideouts. The #2 receiver is fellow Ohio State Buckeye and former Carolina Panther Curtis Samuel. Signed as a free agent in 2021, Samuel's initial season in Washington was injury-plagued, but he has healthy throughout 2022. Year-to-date, in 630 snaps, Samuel has 48 catches on 72 targets for 493 yards, 10.3 Y/C, and 3 touchdowns. A bit of a gimmick player, Samuel has 28 carries for 165 yards, 5.9 Y/C, a long run of 49 yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 1 fumble. Samuel's PFF grades are 69.7(receiving)/73.2(rushing)/71.1(overall), ranking #41 of 119. The #3 receiver is rookie first-round pick Jahan Dotson. The 2022 #16 overall pick from Penn State, Dotson has come along slowly. In 369 snaps, Dotson has 14 catches on 26 targets for 179 yards, 12.8 Y/C, and 4 touchdowns. To date not a threat on the reverse, Dotson has just 2 carries for minus 7 yards. Dotson grades 63.6(receiving)/50.5(run)/61.9(overall), ranking #85 of 119.

Washington does have three additional receivers that have received significant playing time. Cam Sims, a 2018 UDFA from Alabama, has played 287 snaps. Year-to-date, he has 6 catches on 14 targets for 75 yards, 12.5 Y/C. Sims earns PFF grades of 52.0(receiving)/49.0(overall), ranking 116 of 119 qualifying wide outs. Dyami Brown, a 2021 third-round pick from North Carolina, has played 116 snaps. Brown, a legitimate deep threat, has 5 catches on 14 targets for 143 yards, 28.3 yards/catch, and 2 touchdowns. Brown grades 72.0(receiving)/69.5(overall). Dax Milne was a 2021 seventh-round pick from BYU. In 80 offensive snaps, Milne has 6 catches on 7 targets for 37 yards, 6.2 Y/C, and 1 touchdown. Milne is also Washington's primary kick returner, averaging 20.5 yards on 12 kickoff returns and 7.8 yards on 30 punt returns.

Quarterbacks

As discussed above, the Week 6 injury to Carson Wentz resulted in him being placed on IR, replaced by Taylor Heinicke. This switch forced changes to the offense that has resulted in overall better team play. Individually, Heinicke has not been much of an improvement over Wentz. In six games, Heineke has completed 104 of 171 pass attempts for 1169 yards, 194.8 yards/game, 11.2 yards/completion, 6.8 yards/attempt, and a completion percentage of 60.8%. Heinicke has 7 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, and has been sacked 9 times for minus 72 yards. Never a run threat, Heinicke has 6 carries for 21 yards, 3.5 Y/C, 1 touchdown, and 2 fumbles. Heinicke has a quarterback rating of 82.7 and a QBR of 47.0. He earns PFF grades of 49.5 passing, 56.2 rushing, and 50.7 overall, ranking #38 out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. In contrast, also in six games, Wentz completed 144 of 232 pass attempts for 1489 yards, 248.2 yards/game, 10.3 yards/completion, 6.4 yards/attempt, and a completion rate of 62.1%. Wentz had 10 touchdown passes, threw 6 interceptions, and was sacked 23 times for minus 140 yards. Wentz did have 19 carries for 79 yards, an average of 4.2 yards/carry. Always poor with ball security, Wentz had 6 fumbles (compared to Heinicke's 2). Wentz had a quarterback rating of 84.1 and a QBR of 33.0. He earned PFF grades of 61.3 passing, 64.1 rushing, and 63.1 overall, ranking 29 out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks.

[beaugestus]

Thanks Brian, always informative.