What is the true value of a number one WR?

[MightyGiants]

Admittedly, Kelcy skews the data, and perhaps the discussion should be broadened to include receiving targets


https://x.com/RandyMueller_/status/1757404412363046937?s=20

[katkavage]

Very rarely worth a top ten pick in the draft. You can find receivers everywhere. Giants had a good one that helped them win a Super Bowl named Victor Cruz. A free agent pick up as I recall.

[Philosophers]

Why do people insist that one off examples actually represent a statistical fact?  Football has proven that if a QB has enough time, average WRs can beat elite CBs.

If you want success with average WRs, then have elite time to throw it whether it is a great OL pass blocking well or a QB who can manufacture time or somewhere in between.

This is no different than what John Elway and Dan Marino did. 

[uconnjack8]

I guess if you have Mahomes, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Travis Kelce, Spags and Andy Reid (among others that are not named) you can opt to not sign Tyreek Hill.

Hill certainly made a huge difference in Miami. 

I will say I think that trading for and/or signing top WRs is generally not worth the price.  I think GB traded Davante Adams the same year Hill left the Chiefs.  The Raiders are still a mess and the arrow is pointing up for the Packers.  Two of the players they drafted with the picks from that trade are playing well, Quay Walker and Christian Watson.

And when conversation about trading for WRs comes up, I always think about the Bills. They traded up for Sammy Watkins in 2014 with Mike Evans and OBJ still on the board.  Then in 2020 the Bills traded for Diggs, who has been great for them.  With the pick that was traded away, the Vikings selected Justin Jefferson, who has become better than Diggs, has been cheaper on a rookie deal and that doesn't even speak to the other picks traded away. 

[Painter]

It too often seems that what we do best is to rationalize to the point of overthinking.
Certainly, Giants fans should know well the liability incurred in not having a No.1 top-tier Receiver. If you have such a need and there are three or four guys who are widely considered top-10 value like a Beckham (or a Burress), you don't hesitate. Otherwise, it would seem wise to look for a Nicks, a Smith or a Toomer no later than Round 2. And if Victor Cruz has taught anything, it's less about picking than about an act not worth repeating.

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

I figured I would expand on former GM Mueller's data set of just one.  28.5% of the playoff teams didn't have a top 15 receiver (based on yardage)

KC
Baltimore
Greenbay
Pittsburg

[ralphpal1]

Well you can look at it that way
Or maybe
Look at the eagles last year
Ans
49ers this year
They dont make the superbowl without that talent as wrs
Also the packers have very good wrs
Wait till next year

[Bob In PA]

It too often seems that what we do best is to rationalize to the point of overthinking.
Certainly, Giants fans should know well the liability incurred in not having a No.1 top-tier Receiver. If you have such a need and there are three or four guys who are widely considered top-10 value like a Beckham (or a Burress), you don't hesitate. Otherwise, it would seem wise to look for a Nicks, a Smith or a Toomer no later than Round 2. And if Victor Cruz has taught anything, it's less about picking than about an act not worth repeating.

Larry (and @uconnjack8):

You guys put me in a quandary (trying to decide if the Burress example trumps the Chiefs example). lol