For those that say the Combine in meaningless

[T200]

I do see the value in the medical evaluations and interviews, as @kingm56 mentioned.

I asked a close friend of mine whose son played in the NFL for a couple of years and went through the process.

Three key points he mentioned that gave me a little more insight:

- All conferences aren't equal in terms of talent. A player could be a stud in the ACC or PAC-10 but may be pedestrian in the SEC. Getting them together in one place is valuable in terms of seeing all the top talent (if they are there) at once, in the same environment.

- There may be a stud playing second string to an NFL-bound starter. The combine allows the backup to get visibility.

- The combine is probably more valuable for players in the third-to-seventh round window. This is where teams draft their depth players. The combine allows teams to evaluate players who may not have a lot of film.

Having had that conversation, my stance has softened on the combine.

[londonblue]

A perspective from an actual NFL front office member of my family.

The combine matters in limited, specific ways

1. Medical
2. Player/agent/other team & media contact (tea leaf reading)
3. Measurements that surprise (up/down)
4. Testing that surprise (up/down)
5. Intangibles*
6. Coaches in the process

* eg not testing/throwing will not hurt QB1-3 but McCarthy, Nix, Penix will get respect for doing so.

The combine helps focus teams' areas of technical focus and questioning for ProDays and visits and for surprise tests/measurements probably means revisiting film study just to make sure nothing was missed. It also gets first hand impressions for attending coaches, which does matter and can also send scouts and GMs back to the film.

It is another filter in a long process but the first with significant coach engagement for many teams (some teams including his former but not current team have scouts and coaches meet and watch targeted film pre combine).

The combine itself will not cement a player 'rising' or 'falling' but media narratives might capture (exaggerate, twist) 'sentiment' at the event but any such sentiment will get rigorously reexamined and reevaluated through subsequent stages in the process.

[MightyGiants]

A perspective from an actual NFL front office member of my family.

The combine matters in limited, specific ways

1. Medical
2. Player/agent/other team & media contact (tea leaf reading)
3. Measurements that surprise (up/down)
4. Testing that surprise (up/down)
5. Intangibles*
6. Coaches in the process

* eg not testing/throwing will not hurt QB1-3 but McCarthy, Nix, Penix will get respect for doing so.

The combine helps focus teams' areas of technical focus and questioning for ProDays and visits and for surprise tests/measurements probably means revisiting film study just to make sure nothing was missed. It also gets first hand impressions for attending coaches, which does matter and can also send scouts and GMs back to the film.

It is another filter in a long process but the first with significant coach engagement for many teams (some teams including his former but not current team have scouts and coaches meet and watch targeted film pre combine).

The combine itself will not cement a player 'rising' or 'falling' but media narratives might capture (exaggerate, twist) 'sentiment' at the event but any such sentiment will get rigorously reexamined and reevaluated through subsequent stages in the process.

Thanks for sharing; that's pretty much what I have heard from others who have worked in the NFL.

I think one other way the Combine impacts perception is that many draftniks (not NFL people, but people in the outside draft community) can't estimate just by watching film.  So, for them, the Combine becomes another data point.  So, while an NFL team will yawn at a really fast time (when it's what they expected), those who didn't know what to expect will get all excited.

As one NFL scout said, "you don't get double credit.  Fast players don't get extra credit when they run fast at the Combine".

[MightyGiants]

Greg Cosell and Andy Benoît talk about the Combine.

Greg Cosell & Andy Benoit get you ready for the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine by sharing their favorite behind the scenes memories, discuss whether we will see changes to the event in the future, and the top QBs to keep an eye on.

 https://www.the33rdteam.com/scouting-combine-preview-quarterbacks-to-watch/

[Painter]

Face it, folksies. No matter what weight is given to Combine participation, performance and test results, or how molecular the analytics have become, the Draft is still best known for its uncertainty in projecting and predicting player "success"

I think most of us know well that the earlier you pick the better your chance of success within the first 20-25 picks and that chances start to diminish more and more rapidly thereafter to something akin to crapshoot odds and O Fortuna.

Without rehashing criteria and reams of data, I must admit to being more than a little surprised to find that, even in applying a generous criterion, less than half (44.4%) of QBs drafted in Rounds 1-6 during the past 10 years can be viewed as or thought likely to become truly successful.

Cheers!

[londonblue]

Absolutely. Every team has a process and people they trust. Every team refines it every year even with stable staff. Every teams gets some picks right and some picks wrong.

In any NFL draft class there simply is not 250+ players who will prove able to handle the demands of the professional game on and off the field.

I've not seen reliable numbers analysed across multiple drafts of how many picks fall out of the league year 0,1,2,3 but I suspect it is scary.

[MightyGiants]

Of course former GMs and Scouts aren't going to tell you this; to do so, would invalidate thier life's work.  The reality is, data, coupled with sophisticated algorithms/AI are replacing scouts with a clip board and stop watch.  Plus, I'll take my track record over the people you listen to, Rich .   

I missed this commentary the first time around.   Matt, I am going to be speaking more in general and this is not intended to be directed at you.   

I once read an article that suggested that as we consume information (referring more to opinions instead of pure facts), we should treat the sources of the information the same way courts treat expert witnesses.   Here is how courts treat exert witnesses:

Rule 702. Testimony by Expert Witnesses


A witness who is qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education may testify in the form of an opinion or otherwise if the proponent demonstrates to the court that it is more likely than not that:

(a) the expert's scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge will help the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue;

(b) the testimony is based on sufficient facts or data;

(c) the testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods; and

(d) the expert's opinion reflects a reliable application of the principles and methods to the facts of the case.

Former GMs and former scouts do fall under the category of expert witnesses (as long as none of the provisions listed have been violated).

I think, as fans, we all enjoy playing Monday Morning QB or Arm Chair GM.  It's part of the fun of being a fan. Make no mistake about it, though.   If any of us were suddenly made the GM of the NY Giants, that team would take a nose dive.  We are not all qualified to perform that job.  There is real value in listening to former NFL coaches, GMs, and Scouts.  Former players can also bring value, but the understanding of the full game varies greatly by player and position.

The difference between the professionals and ourselves is that the professionals have every decision made public record, and the result of their work is tested against 31 other teams who also employ the best people.  So just doing an adequate job isn't good enough, to be a winner you need to do an exceptional or outstanding job.

Finally, on a side note, I am not a big fan of the idea that a person's self-professed "track record" should have meaning.  Since football is not chess (pure skill) but more like poker or a game of Monopoly where luck is a factor, what's truly important is a sound process (which is not subject to luck) rather than results (which are).  Secondly, if you are going to be bragging about your track record and seek to use it to try and boost your opinions, you are going to create a natural bias.  You will be far less open-minded and willing to change a point of view (if you have a vested interest in being "right") than if your goal is about getting it right (admittedly, this is a paraphrase of Greg Gabriel's, "it's not important to be right, it's important to get it right").  I will also note that many of us tend to forget our mistakes and only remember our successes (a luxury real GMs and scouts don't have).