The Big Hitter's Scouting Report: Cleveland Browns Offense

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Hi all. I worked this week to get the reports out earlier. Here is #1, on the Browns offense. I hope you enjoy it!

Cleveland Browns Offense

Browns Head Coach Kevin Stefanski is in his sixth season in Cleveland. Prior to his hire, Stefanski spent 14 years as a Vikings' assistant, mostly as a quarterbacks coach. His offensive coordinator is Ken Dorsey, a former NFL backup who played sparingly for seven seasons, 2003-2009. Once his playing days were over, Dorsey began his coaching career in Carolina, primarily as quarterbacks coach. In 2019, he moved on to the Bills as their QB coach. In 2022, he was promoted to Bills' offensive coordinator. Halfway through 2023, with the offense floundering and the Bills record at 5-5, Dorsey was fired, replaced by QB coach Joe Brady. In January, 2024, Dorsey was hired as Cleveland OC, replacing the fired Alex van Pelt.

The Browns offense is presently in a state of stutter. Two games into the season, they are 27th in yards (263.5 Y/G) and tied for 22nd in points (17.5 PPG). They have run the ball with moderate success, averaging 109.0 yards/game, with an average yards/carry of 4.5 and two touchdowns. The pass game has been quite unproductive, averaging just 154,5 yards/game (25th), one touchdown, and two interceptions. They have yielded 8 sacks (4th most in the league) for minus 46 yards (6th most).

Scheme and execution are killing the Browns offense. Year to date, they are just 4/29 on third down, a terrible 13.8% conversion rate, second worst in the NFL. They have 24 offensive penalties, worst in the league, for 164 penalty yards, 4th worst. Despite a run game that has been more effective that the pass attack, their run/pass ratio is just 35.5%.

In the Week 1 loss to Dallas, Cleveland had no answer to a ferocious Cowboy pass rush that had six sacks and disrupted pretty much every Browns pass attempt. The Browns best receiving option against Dallas, tight end David Njoku, suffered a high ankle sprain on a 29-yard catch and run in the third quarter. The Browns did have some success running the ball against Dallas, gaining 93 yards on 19 carries. Heading into Week 2 against Jacksonville, with Njoku still out injured, Dorsey came up with what could be considered an "old school" game plan. Placing emphasis on the run, he inserted a sixth offensive lineman on 24 offensive snaps, doing so almost exclusively on run downs. The offense upped its run carries to 29, a respectable 44.6% run/pass ratio, and gained 125 yards on the ground. That said, the Browns still scored but 18 points and required a late game safety by the defense to ice the win.

By my mind's eye, the Browns sputtering offense results from several root causes. Among these:

1)   The ineffectiveness of Deshaun Watson. To me, Watson's issues are threefold. First, it appears he has not fully recovered from a season-ending shoulder injury suffered last season. His passes are weak; they lack "zip" and depth. I wonder whether the injury will be chronic. Second, the anemic Browns pass protection has given Watson a case of the yips. Opposing pass rushers are in his face on an almost continuous basis, causing him to move his feet much too soon, preventing him from properly reading the defense. Third, it is my belief that Watson's off-field issues, now mixed with a loud, vicious, and constant on-field malevolence among football fans, is distracting Watson to the point that he can no longer properly focus on the football field.
2)   The Browns offensive line, particularly the now-starting backup tackles and the starting center, has performed so poorly that the Browns passing game never has a chance to develop a proper rhythm. The eventual return to play by injured starters Jedrick Wills or Jack Conklin should eventually go a long way to improve the line play. That said, at this point, it is uncertain if either will be able play Sunday against the Giants.
3)   The play calling, particularly on pass plays, has been odd in the extreme. The Browns almost never run a pattern of more than 7-8 yards downfield. They are averaging an almost ridiculously low 4.5 yards/pass attempt. In fact, it is the pass play calling by Dorsey that leads me to suspect that Watson's shoulder remains damaged, limiting his throwing ability.

The keys for the Giants defense against the Browns are, in my estimation:

1)   Stop the run. The Giants run defense against Washington was awful. Make it better. I expect the Browns will not significantly alter the game plan they utilized against Jacksonville. Expect a run/pass ratio of about 50%.
2)   Zone off and keep the receivers in front of the coverage. A roll up zone should work well against the short routes the Browns used against the Jaguars.
3)   Provide a hard pass rush off the edge. Year-to-date, the Browns have had little success protecting the rush off the edge. Mix in some A gap blitzes, a second recent vulnerable point.

Let's dive into the Browns offensive personnel.

Quarterback

No need to rehash Deshaun Watson's off-field issues other than to state that, in my opinion, the reaction of NFL fans, both for and against the Browns, is affecting Watson's concentration and thus hurting his on-field performance. Such was not always the case. Watson came out of Clemson in 2017 as the Houston Texans first-round pick (#12 overall). By 2018, he made the Pro Bowl, repeating against in 2019 and 2020. It was around this point that his off-field issues exploded. Prior to 2021, Watson demanded a trade out of Houston. The Texan management refused to grant this wish, causing Watson to sit out the entire 2021 season. In the subsequent off-season, Watson was traded to the Browns for a package of draft picks that included three first-rounders. Meanwhile, his off-field issues resulted in an eleven game suspension and $5 million. He did play the final six games of 2022 and then started six games in 2023. In both seasons, his play was sub-par, earning respective PFF grades of 54.7 and 64.3. Midway through 2023, Watson suffered a shoulder injury that placed him on season-ending IR.

I have reviewed both Browns games. To me, it appears that Watson's previous shoulder injury is affecting his throwing motion. Over two games, I recall just one downfield throw, directed to Amari Cooper. In fact, Watson has thrown few intermediate range passes. Most attempts have been of the dink-n-dunk variety. Even these short passes are falling incomplete much too often. On the season, Watson has completed just 46 of 79 pass attempts, a completion rate of just 58.2% (#27 in the NFL) and a paltry 4.5 yards/attempt. He has 355 passing yards, been sacked 8 times for minus 46 yards, has 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble. Watson has rushed 10 times for 59 yards (5.9 Y/C) and 1 touchdown.

If Watson continues to flounder, the Browns do have Jameis Winston on the bench. Winston, the 2017 #1 overall pick, has been, and likely will remain, a career flop. Still, he does remain a potential option. Winston took three snaps against the Jags, running twice (successfully) on short yardage situations and handing off once. Otherwise, 2023 fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a developmental project.

Offensive Line

George Young once stated, show me a football team that is struggling, and I'll show you a bad offensive line. This year's Cleveland Browns are a provable version of that statement. Deshaun Watson is rightly given much blame for the Browns offensive woes, but Watson' struggles are in large part due to bad line play. Middling or better PFF grades aside, my observation of the Browns line yields a unit that cannot stop an opposing pass rush. The Cowboys, especially their edge rushers, flat out embarrassed the Browns line in their home opener. Statistically, the line played better against Jacksonville, allowing just 2 sacks for minus 14 yards, but, still, Watson was for the most part running for his life on most every pass down. Rarely did he have a clean pocket in which to throw.

A large part of the O line woes is the result of both starting tackles being injured. Jedrick Wills Jr, the left tackle, and Jack Conklin, the right tackle, are each working themselves into game shape over knee injuries each suffered in 2023. When on the field, Wills, to date, has been a disappointment. The 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Wills has struggled to be any better than mediocre. His injury-plagued 2023 season was his worst, posting an overall PFF grade of 54.0. In many ways, Wills is the Browns version of fellow Alabama alum Evan Neal. The same cannot be said for injured right tackle Jack Conklin. Also a high draft pick (#8 overall in 2016, Michigan), Conklin has to-date had an excellent career, twice being named All Pro. Injured in the 2023 season opener, Conklin has not since taken a snap. As of this writing, his status for Sunday, as well as that of Wills, is uncertain.

Wills' replacement at left tackle is at present James Hudson III. A 2021 fourth-round pick from Cincinnati, Hudson has struggled, particularly in pass protection. To date, Hudson has 16 career starts. He has yet to earn a PFF grade higher than 57.4. 2023 was his worst year: in 16 games and 7 starts, he recorded just a 44.7 overall grade. This year, having taken all 148 offensive snaps, he shows PFF scores of 60.6(run), 41.3(pass protection, 52.9(overall), ranking #59 of 67 qualifying tackles. Starting opposite to Hudson has been 2023 fourth-round pick Dawand Jones. PFF-wise, Jones scores middling: 68.4/73.0/63.7, ranking #38 of 67. Not sure who at PFF was watching his pass blocking; I saw Jones getting consistently beat off the edge. Apparently Kevin Stefanski believed so also, pulling Jones from the Jacksonville game in favor of Germain Ifedi. Yet another former first-round pick (2016, #31 overall), Ifedi has not been a good pro, consistently scoring PFF grades in the 40s and 50s. The Ifedi experiment lasted just 11 plays as he was considerably worse than Jones. Ifedi's 2024 PFF grades, including 2 snaps against Dallas, are 48.2/47.6/49.3.

Left guard Joel Bitonio is a long-time terrific player. A Browns 2nd round pick in 2014 (Nevada),  Bitonio has made six Pro Bowls and has twice been named All Pro. For three consecutive seasons, 2020-2022, PFF ranked him 2nd, 1st, and 5th among all qualifying guards. Though still solid, Bitonio's recent play has not been quite impressive; to date, PFF grades him 74.2(run), 51.1(pass protection), 68.5(overall) ranking #27 of 68 qualifying guards. Starting opposite Bitonio is the equally impressive Wyatt Teller. A 2018 fifth-round pick from Va Tech, Teller has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past three seasons. So far in 2024, he grades 66.9/78.7/73.5, ranking #20 of 68.

Despite playing between solid guards, center Ethan Pocic has been a bit shaky this season, particularly in pass protection. A 2017 second-round pick of Seattle, he came to Cleveland in 2021 and had since been an O-line mainstay. This year, admittedly over just two games, he grades a poor 46.6 for pass protection. Coupled with a solid 74.5 in run blocking, he grades 61.0 overall, #22 of 33.

As stated, Cleveland adjusted its offense against the Jags by inserting a sixth offensive lineman, mostly on run downs. In total, the Browns had a sixth lineman on 24 of the 72 offensive snaps. All but a few of the six-man fronts were utilized on run plays, although there were a few misdirection screen passes.14 of these snaps went to rookie guard Zak Zinter; 10 snaps went to fifth-year backup center Nick Harris. Zinter, a third-round pick from Michigan, graded 44.2/75.7/45.5. Harris, originally a fifth-round pick from Washington, received a run grade of 58.1, no pass block grade, and an overall of 66.5.

Running Backs

The Browns have a fine young back in third-year player Jerome Ford. A 2022 fifth-round pick from Cincinnati, Ford became the Browns starter in 2023. He subsequently ran for 813 yards on 204 carries (4.0 T/C) and 4 touchdowns. He also caught 44 passes on 63 targets for 319 yards, 7.3 Y/C, and 5 touchdowns. Year-to-date, Ford has 108 rushing yards on 19 carries, 5.7 Y/C, and one touchdown, and 7 catches on 9 targets for 25 yards, 3.6 Y/C. He grades 66.2 (run), 56.1 (receiving), 62.5 (overall), ranking # 35 of 53 qualifying backs.

Solid journeyman D'onta Foreman joins Ford in the Cleveland backfield. Originally a Houston 2017 third-round pick, Foreman is now on his fifth NFL team. A bruising power runner, Foreman is pretty much a one-way runner who is not often utilized in the passing game. His best season was 2022 in Carolina, where he ran for 914 yards on 203 carries and 5 touchdowns. Unused in Week 1 against Dallas, he took 27 snaps in the power game against the Jags, with 10 carries for 59 yards (5.9 Y/C), 1 touchdown, and 1 fumble (not lost). He did catch one pass for 9 yards.

Backup Pierre Strong Jr. injured a hamstring last week and is "questionable" for Sunday. A New England 2022 fourth-round pick (S. Dakota State), Strong is a solid ST player who does get offensive snaps as a change-of-pace pass-catching back. On the season, Strong has 3 carries for 5 yards (1.7 Y/C) and has 3 receptions on 5 targets for 30 yards (10.0 Y/C).

Tight End

Starting tight end David Njoku suffered a high ankle sprain against Dallas and did not play last week against Jacksonville. Prior to the injury, Njoku caught 4 passes against the Cowboys on 5 targets for 44 yards (11.0 Y/C). In 2023, Njoku, a 2017 first-round pick from Miami, had his best pro season, earning his first Pro Bowl, with 81 receptions on 123 targets for 882 yards (10.9 Y/C) and 6 touchdowns. Njoku is more of a receiving tight end than a blocker. A security blanket receiver for Dashaun Watson, Njoku's absence from the Jacksonville game likely played a large part in the reinvented game plan. As of this writing (Wednesday), Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski reports that Njoku is "unlikely to play."

#2 tight end is 32-year-old Jordan Akins. Originally a 2018 second-round pick of Houston, Akins is, like Njoku, more of a receiving tight end than a blocker. His best season was 2022, when he caught 37 passes on 53 targets for 495 yards and five touchdowns. Year-to-date, Akins has 4 catches on 5 targets for 37 yards (9.3 Y/C). Elevated from the practice squad last week was Blake Whiteheart, a 2023 UDFA signing from Wake Forest. Whiteheart played 24 snaps against the Jaguars but had no targets or catches. He earned a PFF grade of 62.4.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper was originally drafted #4 overall in 2015. He has since played up to the high draft billing, having caught 672 passes for 9513 yards, 14.2 Y/C, 60 touchdowns, and five Pro Bowls. In 2023 Cooper, had perhaps his finest season, catching 72 passes for 1250 yards, 17.5 Y/C, and 5 touchdowns. That said, this season he does not look right. Although he has played 135 out of 148 offensive snaps, he has just 5 catches on 17 targets for a paltry 27 yards, 5.4 Y/C, and zero touchdowns. Against the Jags, in a rare 2024 throw downfield, Watson targeted Cooper on a deep sideline throw. Cooper was open but only made a half-assed attempt at a catch, and the ball fell incomplete. I'm not sure what, if anything, is up with Cooper. Season-to-date, he shows a PFF grade of 48.5, ranking #98 of 104 qualifying wideouts. As best I can tell, he is not injured. Is his poor play just a two-game blip, will he return to form, or has the air finally emptied out of his balloon, ala Kenny Golliday? Don't know.

Eljah Moore was a 2021 second-round pick out of Ole Miss.  His career to date has been so-so at best. In 2023, his best season, he caught 59 passes on 104 targets for 640 yards, 10.8 Y/C, and 2 touchdowns. This season, Moore has caught 9 passes on 14 targets for 53 yards, 5.9 Y/C, and zero touchdowns. Going into 2024, the Browns rightly decided that they needed a better #2 receiver and engineered a trade to bring Jerry Jeudy over from Denver. That deal has proven astute as Jeudy has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal pass attack. In his four years in Denver, Jeudy caught 219 passes on 370 targets for 3151 yards, 12.3 Y/C, and 12 touchdowns. This season, he has 8 catches on 14 targets for 98 yards and one touchdown. He has a PFF receiving grade of 70.5, ranking #28 of 104.

Elsewise, David Bell, 2022 second-round pick from Purdue, took nine snaps against Jacksonville, making three catches on three targets for 27 yards. He has since gone to the IR with a season-ending hip injury. Cedric Tillman, a 2023 third-round pick, has not been good. In 52 offensive snaps, he has but two catches on 3 targets for just 5 yards. His PFF grade of 44.6 gives him the Blutarski award among wideouts: a perfect ranking of #104 of 104.

Up Next: Browns Defense and Special Teams