NFL Teams have a new #1 QB

[MightyGiants]

Ì don't think he's that much of a system Qb. Hear me out, his freshman year he played under Graham Harrell who runs Kliff Kingsbury/Mike Leachs Air raid the same system that Mahomes came out of so there is tape there of him running a different offense. Kiffins offense is actually really complex, if you put a name on it then it would likely be a version of the Veer and shoot made popular by Art Briles. Kiffin learned under Gruden with those elite Tampa teams of the early 2000s before learning under Pete Carroll and Norm Chow at USC who was mentored by Lavell Edwards who doesn't get enough credit for the passing innovations he had. Once Chow left for the NFL kiffin and Sarkisian the Texas HC took over the offense at USC which led to the Leinart, Bush Era. He used pro style concepts then and then took those concepts to Alabama were he used them there. Yes it's a high powered offense, but all the misdirect, motion, and Rpo's that he uses is what the NFL is adopting now to combat the cover 2. Despite people thinking he can't do intermediate, he had the best intermediate grade in the country. He's not targeting the middle to start his progression, so obviously he's making some to get back to the middle. Is he perfect, absolutely not but there is talent there.

Why wasn't Jayden Daniels considered a system Qb we he came out last year? Denbrock the LSU OC last year is actually the Oc at Notre Dame now and has run the same 11 personnel RPO offense for years making qbs look significantly better than they are. I mean he made Deshon Kizer, and Desmond Riddler look elite and got them drafted when the talent wasn't there but there was no mention of that last year around Daniels. Kiffin however gets no credit and gets Matt Corral held against him when it wasn't Corrals game that failed, he had a mental breakdown. Kiffin turned a Safey at Alabama into a Qb and won 2 back to back national championships with the kid. Heupel the Tennessee head coach basically runs a more simplified version of kiffins offense and people weren't screaming that Hendon Hooker was a system Qb, or that Lamaleava the kid playing there now who's expected to be a 1st rd pick is a system qb. I think that people write Dart off as a system qb which is a convinent way to not look deeper into him. Even Kalen Dabeor ran a version of kiffins offense for Milroe this year but he's not a system qb.

Jess,

This is the type of post that makes it enjoyable to come to BBH.  Your argument was compelling enough for me to change my stance on the whole system thing.

[GloryDays]

https://mikefarrellsports.com/college/breaking-is-jaxson-dart-a-better-nfl-prospect-than-cam-ward-and-shedeur-sanders

I've seen a ton of reports coming out that multiple NFL teams have Jaxson Dart as their number 1 Qb before the Senior Bowl.

The youngest qb in this draft at 21 yrs old with 4 years of starting experience with 1 year at USC and 3 years at Ole Miss. Got significantly better year on year with a better Cmp%, yards, and Tds each year he played. In scouting qbs, 3+ years starting experience, plus seeing significant process year on year are huge in my opinion.

2024 stats 4276 yards 29 tds 6 int 648 rushing yards 3 tds with a 69% cmpl % in the SEC vs Sanders (Big12) Ward (ACC)

Dart played most of the season without his top talent at most positions.
#1 Wr only played half the games and still had 1,000 yards
#2 Wr missed multiple games
#1 TE missed multiple games
#1 RB missed all but 1 game
#2 RB missed half the season
Only had the same Oline for 2 games as he had 5+ injuries at the Oline position.

Stats vs other qbs in this class
Total yards per game 1st
Passing yards per game 2nd
Rushing yards per game 2nd
Passer rating 1st
Td to Int ratio 2nd
Pff passer grade 1st
Ints per attempt 1st
Average target distance 1st
Big time throw per game (tight window throws)1st
Big time Throw vs Turnover Worthy Play Differential: 1st (highest)
Turnover Worthy Play Rate 3rd
Time To Throw 4th
Yards Per Attempt 1st

QB Allowed Pressure Rate 1st
Pressure to Sack 5th
Intermediate Completion % 1st
Middle Field Completion % 1st

Fast facts-

His offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr (31 yrs old) is a prodigy having coached since he was 20 yrs old at the college level. His dad was the oc for the patriots and both have raved about Darts ability in the pocket.

Dart opted into the bowl Game even though it was only the gator bowl and convinced 9 guys, most with really high draft grades to play one last time together when all could have opted out to train for the combine.

Sanders and Ward threw the ball 81 and 54 more times than Dart

With his RB, TE, and top 2 Wrs out Darts #3 Wr had 456 yards and 4 tds vs Arkansas.

All that to say don't be surprised if he leaps up draft boards with a good showing at the senior bowl. A lot of mock are projecting him in the teens now.

Advanced metrics from ab260 on reddit**

Those important points back it up that the guy has the best potential for success at the next level.

[todge]

I always question these "reports". Unless there is a loose mouthed scout, virtually all teams are very secretive about their player grades. I'd be very surprised to see Dart go above Ward and Sanders.


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[Bob In PA]

I always question these "reports". Unless there is a loose mouthed scout, virtually all teams are very secretive about their player grades. I'd be very surprised to see Dart go above Ward and Sanders.

@todge Ted: IMO, assuming the Giants do not actually want either of the supposed top two QB in this draft, it is incumbent upon them to nevertheless convince the league they might draft either or both, for several reasons, not the least of which is to try as best they can to ensure that the first two picks will be those QB's.

If they succeed, then they in effect have the first overall pick, don't they?

I say it's possible the Giants themselves are the "leakers" and the "leaks" are the first shots fired...

Bob

[Stringer Bell]

Because towards the end of the season many hadn't seen Dart play. As I was discussing with Ed above, he was an unknown to a lot so that's why there's a drastic upswing in his draft stock.

I've seen Dart play a bunch and still felt he would be a 3rd rounder - and still might.

While it's still early in the process, it's a fairly consensus opinion that overall this is a weaker than normal QB class. And I agree with that assessment.

And despite that assessment, the vast majority of pundits and experts who no doubt have seen plenty of Dart's tape have never included him the upper tier of this year's class.

For the most part, the QB tiers have looked like:

Tier 1
Ward
Sanders

Tier 2
Milroe
Beck
Ewers

Tier 3
Dart
Howard
McCord
Gabriel

A combination of factors will always change this ordering over the course of the year - Beck returning to school, Howard playing well in the CFP, combine performances, etc.

And obviously a big part of this comes down to the number of QB needy teams willing to use a day 1 or 2 pick on one. At this point, there are 5 obvious teams - Titans, Browns, Giants, Raiders, and Jets. And while there might be a surprise team (Saints, Steelers?), most others are set right now.

So if the Giants see it as a 5-team competition for these QBs, and if for example they didn't like the 1st round guys and had similar grades on Dart and Howard, it would be reasonable to see why they would wait until the 3rd given how many other holes they have to fill on the roster. Let the others pick Ward, Sanders, and Milroe, then select whichever one is left between Dart and Howard.

It's a gamble, for sure. But this the gamble every team plays each round of the draft.

[Jclayton92]

I've seen Dart play a bunch and still felt he would be a 3rd rounder - and still might.

While it's still early in the process, it's a fairly consensus opinion that overall this is a weaker than normal QB class. And I agree with that assessment.

And despite that assessment, the vast majority of pundits and experts who no doubt have seen plenty of Dart's tape have never included him the upper tier of this year's class.

For the most part, the QB tiers have looked like:

Tier 1
Ward
Sanders

Tier 2
Milroe
Beck
Ewers

Tier 3
Dart
Howard
McCord
Gabriel

A combination of factors will always change this ordering over the course of the year - Beck returning to school, Howard playing well in the CFP, combine performances, etc.

And obviously a big part of this comes down to the number of QB needy teams willing to use a day 1 or 2 pick on one. At this point, there are 5 obvious teams - Titans, Browns, Giants, Raiders, and Jets. And while there might be a surprise team (Saints, Steelers?), most others are set right now.

So if the Giants see it as a 5-team competition for these QBs, and if for example they didn't like the 1st round guys and had similar grades on Dart and Howard, it would be reasonable to see why they would wait until the 3rd given how many other holes they have to fill on the roster. Let the others pick Ward, Sanders, and Milroe, then select whichever one is left between Dart and Howard.

It's a gamble, for sure. But this the gamble every team plays each round of the draft.

At this point pre combine and pro day I think your rankings are way outdated.

Ward and Sanders are still 1 and 2 but are trending downward after the bowl games.

Beck has now made himself irrelevant in draft talk with his horrible play this year.

Ewers is all over the place, many people have a wide range of thoughts on his stock but even Kiper has him 5th behind Dart and Milroe.

Milroe has dropped significantly since midway through the season with everyone questioning everything about him.

Dart is the real riser, sadly it took him annihilating a top 15 defense with 500 total yards and 4 tds in a bowl Game for people to actually start studying him.

Per kiper this week:

"The other quarterback I just want to throw into this discussion [at pick six to the Raiders]. We've thrown all these other guys out there. I think a guy who's going to be one of the more underrated guys--he had a heck of a bowl game--I'm going Jaxson Dart. Jaxson Dart. I watched him. I went back and studied him this week. I've waited and waited. He's my QB3. He's solidly QB3. I'm looking at what he's lacking. He's a great athlete. He can run. He can beat you with his legs. He can make every throw. He makes "wow" throws, rolling left, rolling right. His accuracy, he was around 69% or 70% this year...Bottom line is, Jaxson Dart, I think he has the talent level, the mindset, everything, to be a heck of a quarterback."

Just saying don't be surprised if he's QB2 behind ward once the dust settles.

[Woody]

I agree his is best Qb coming out .......someone will grab him late round one


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[uconnjack8]

Was just listening to NFL radio and Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller were talking about a conversation with Brian Kelly.  They spoke about running QBs and he said they tried to stress the passing game portion with Daniels to make him more NFL ready.

[Stringer Bell]

At this point pre combine and pro day I think your rankings are way outdated.

Ward and Sanders are still 1 and 2 but are trending downward after the bowl games.

Beck has now made himself irrelevant in draft talk with his horrible play this year.

Ewers is all over the place, many people have a wide range of thoughts on his stock but even Kiper has him 5th behind Dart and Milroe.

Milroe has dropped significantly since midway through the season with everyone questioning everything about him.

Dart is the real riser, sadly it took him annihilating a top 15 defense with 500 total yards and 4 tds in a bowl Game for people to actually start studying him.

Per kiper this week:

"The other quarterback I just want to throw into this discussion [at pick six to the Raiders]. We've thrown all these other guys out there. I think a guy who's going to be one of the more underrated guys--he had a heck of a bowl game--I'm going Jaxson Dart. Jaxson Dart. I watched him. I went back and studied him this week. I've waited and waited. He's my QB3. He's solidly QB3. I'm looking at what he's lacking. He's a great athlete. He can run. He can beat you with his legs. He can make every throw. He makes "wow" throws, rolling left, rolling right. His accuracy, he was around 69% or 70% this year...Bottom line is, Jaxson Dart, I think he has the talent level, the mindset, everything, to be a heck of a quarterback."

Just saying don't be surprised if he's QB2 behind ward once the dust settles.

Right, that's why I mentioned:

"A combination of factors will always change this ordering over the course of the year - Beck returning to school, Howard playing well in the CFP, combine performances, etc."

But my point was despite all the changes and all the good and bad performances, Dart has never been a  consideration among the upper echelon of QB prospects.

I don't agree that Ward is trending downward, and certainly not because of the bowl game. I think teams could care less about his decision to sit out the second half.

And while I think Sanders won't go as high as most project, I don't think it will be because of the bowl game, either. I think NFL teams were already in doubt on Sanders and didn't plan to consider him at #1, and the bowl game just further validated that opinion.

Beck is irrelevant because he's returning to school. And while I'm not a fan of his as a prospect, I suspect he will be back as a late 1st-early 2nd prospect next year after a stat-filled year at Miami.

And I don't think Milroe has dropped significantly either. Again, I'm not a fan of his - and he's certainly polarizing, but so is everyone in this class. I don't think there's any doubt he's drafted in the 2nd - where he's been projected for a while - or possibly even late 1st by a desperate team should he tear up the Combine with his athleticism.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think Dart could be QB2, but I don't see him making that kind of jump. I think he ends up QB4, which is in the range of where he's been throughout much of the process.