Bobby Skinner on Dart's deep throws

[Trench]

Does Dart have above average arm strength by NFL standards? I thought he was more just middle of the road in this specific area. If he has an above average arm, I was misinformed.

I remember Phil Simms arm got stronger as he got older

[DaveBrown74]

https://x.com/impactfbdata/status/1895942164569604226?t=5Kxi_zhj3UvFa8tfgaqmlQ&s=19

I got the list from Twitter. It was a list of the fastest thrown ball by a QB on the velocity test at the combine. The video above is Dart doing his velocity test this year. It's why you don't see some guys on the list that didn't participate at the combine.

Good stuff. Thanks for the clarification.

You don't need to have a hand-cannon for an arm to be an awesome NFL QB. It's definitely better to have one than to not, but we can all name tons of QBs who didn't have them. Accuracy is more important, as are (especially) all the mental traits.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Good stuff. Thanks for the clarification.

You don't need to have a hand-cannon for an arm to be an awesome NFL QB. It's definitely better to have one than to not, but we can all name tons of QBs who didn't have them. Accuracy is more important, as are (especially) all the mental traits.

A good example is one of my favorite QBs of all time..."The Snake", Kenny Stabler. Threw the softest ball with a high arch with precision. I don't recall him ever throwing a long ball, and his spin rate was so slow, you could count the revolutions. But he took his style, and made it work. On the other hand, Bob Greise used to through short passes so hard, the receivers often couldn't handle it. Never a problem for the snake...anyone could catch his ball

The only thing that matters is that the QB uses his own style and makes it work. No two are exactly alike and there never will be two who are exactly alike

[MightyGiants]

A few thoughts on Bobby's work.

First off, solid job by Bobby

1)  I think it's worth noting that a few QB-needy teams passed on Jaxson Dart.  The Giants were able to get him in the 20s, which would indicate that most NFL teams didn't see Dart as an elite prospect.  I would guess the things that dinged him were not having elite arm strength (which is a big measure among NFL teams).  I suspect the NFL overvalues that trait, as we have seen many a strong-armed QB get drafted only to crash and burn.

2) I am unsure of the conclusions we can draw from the way Bobby broke things down.  I would need to see how other QB prospects looked when you broke out their games against good teams (or strong defenses) and weaker teams.  Let's face it, every QB will feast on the weaker competition they face, even in the NFL.  SO to take an unusual slice (only against the SEC) and then suggest that shows how Dart will do against NFL competition...  I am not sure how sound that idea is because it hasn't been done before.  Hell, I would suspect Cam Ward wouldn't look so good if you only took the handful of games against quality defenses.

3) I had heard early in the scouting process that Dart could get sloppy with his mechanics.  This is what @Ed Vette alluded to in his post.   If Dart cleans up his mechanics, his ceiling is what Bobby witnessed in the non-SEC games.

4)  Dart is a young QB.  He is only 21. He has time to get the grown-ass-man strength.   Remember, we are comparing his throwing to many other prospects 2 or 3 years older than he is.

5) It's not unheard of for QBs to develop stronger arms in the NFL.  Beyond body maturity, the improvement in consistent mechanics helps.  Commonly cited examples are Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

[Ed Vette]

A few thoughts on Bobby's work.

First off, solid job by Bobby

1)  I think it's worth noting that a few QB-needy teams passed on Jaxson Dart.  The Giants were able to get him in the 20s, which would indicate that most NFL teams didn't see Dart as an elite prospect.  I would guess the things that dinged him were not having elite arm strength (which is a big measure among NFL teams).  I suspect the NFL overvalues that trait, as we have seen many a strong-armed QB get drafted only to crash and burn.

2) I am unsure of the conclusions we can draw from the way Bobby broke things down.  I would need to see how other QB prospects looked when you broke out their games against good teams (or strong defenses) and weaker teams.  Let's face it, every QB will feast on the weaker competition they face, even in the NFL.  SO to take an unusual slice (only against the SEC) and then suggest that shows how Dart will do against NFL competition...  I am not sure how sound that idea is because it hasn't been done before.  Hell, I would suspect Cam Ward wouldn't look so good if you only took the handful of games against quality defenses.

3) I had heard early in the scouting process that Dart could get sloppy with his mechanics.  This is what @Ed Vette alluded to in his post.   If Dart cleans up his mechanics, his ceiling is what Bobby witnessed in the non-SEC games.

4)  Dart is a young QB.  He is only 21. He has time to get the grown-ass-man strength.   Remember, we are comparing his throwing to many other prospects 2 or 3 years older than he is.

5) It's not unheard of for QBs to develop stronger arms in the NFL.  Beyond body maturity, the improvement in consistent mechanics helps.  Commonly cited examples are Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

It's good that he throws a catchable ball and places it where the Receiver can grab it in stride and get YAC. He layers his throws, and doesnt rifle the short and BLOS throws. He's going to need a tight spiral in the Meadowlands, and velocity is more important in the mid range routes and those across the field outside the numbers. Those are key routes in Daboll's Offense.

There are so many keys to the success of an NFL QB. Quick and good decision making, which Bobby gave him credit for is huge. It's a big difference between Dart and Shedeur. Notice a veteran in Russell Wilson who sets in Shotgun 5 yards back, drops one step, and with no wasted motion, gets the pass off the instant he sees it off the first two reads. After that, there isnt time to wait for a receiver to get open.

Dart's reads as he stated were deep to short. That's going to change in the NFL, to Pre-Snap determining if the Side should be read as planned or does he skip the first read and move on. Especially on the High-Low. One key that Dart struggled with was getting through his reads quickly and keeping his eyes downfield instead of at the Pass Rush at the Snap.

He's shown the ability to learn and improve and that's so important. If you saw the video of the Pass Rush breaking up the play, he would have been a sack victim or worse. He needed to see that, move up in the pocket earlier and either take off or get rid of the ball.

His ability to adjust to the speed of the game at this level is far more important than anything else at this point.

You're spot on Rich. A lot of teams passed on Dart. They didn't see it in him. He's got a lot to prove. As Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face".

[Jolly Blue Giant]

It's good that Dart is facing Thibs, Burns, Carter, and Dex in practice. Against lesser pass rushes (pretty much the entire NFL), it'll feel like it's a game in slow motion

[Bob In PA]

This isn't OlMiss. Totally different Offense, routes, progressions, and strategy. He will also be taught to get velocity and power from the ground. That trailing leg is causing the tailoff on the deep throws. And that deep throw percentage will come down. He won't have the time to throw that he did there.

Ed: On my first pass through this thread, I missed the bold part. Yes. That is the problem. I believe Daboll with play Dart against the first team in 7 on 7's as much as possible (without cheating Wilson out of reps) regardless of whether 1st-teamers are playing on the OL in order to have him fail as much as possible on the long ball. Eventually, he'll be receptive to hearing how to send the ball the same distance using his back leg to generate power and speed. Bob

[Ed Vette]

It's good that Dart is facing Thibs, Burns, Carter, and Dex in practice. Against lesser pass rushes (pretty much the entire NFL), it'll feel like it's a game in slow motion

Not yet. He's facing mostly second and third teams. I suspect when he gets cocky, Dabs puts him against the ones and releases the hounds to bring him down to earth.

[Ed Vette]

Ed: On my first pass through this thread, I missed the bold part. Yes. That is the problem. I believe Daboll with play Dart against the first team in 7 on 7's as much as possible (without cheating Wilson out of reps) regardless of whether 1st-teamers are playing on the OL in order to have him fail as much as possible on the long ball. Eventually, he'll be receptive to hearing how to send the ball the same distance using his back leg to generate power and speed. Bob

He throws with a baseball pitcher's motion to sling shot the ball. In my opinion, he releases the back leg too soon, and he doesn't get the full disconnect from his front leg to his hips. And... he loses the balance in his base. Bob, they may not deal with this until the offseason. If they even do at all. 

[Crypto Fareez]

Great thread... all comments were fantastic, I for one feel great about Dart. There is so much besides physical attributes that go into being a good qb. I think he has the mental and the physical. Hopefully he can put it together. I would really like to see him starting over Russ sooner than later. An NFL first rounder qb should be able to beat out a 36 year old who has not been good in 5 years. Just an opinion.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Great thread... all comments were fantastic, I for one feel great about Dart. There is so much besides physical attributes that go into being a good qb. I think he has the mental and the physical. Hopefully he can put it together. I would really like to see him starting over Russ sooner than later. An NFL first rounder qb should be able to beat out a 36 year old who has not been good in 5 years. Just an opinion.

Good points. However, being able to hang out with Wilson and Winston for a few months is invaluable. Learning the finer points of dealing with pressure, training, preparing before games, how to handle ones self with media and fans, etc. In a few months, he'll be getting a PhD in how an NFL QB handles life in the NFL as well as gets valuable tips about the game that he could only learn on his own through trial and error. He seems to have a very good head on his shoulders, so shouldn't get sidetracked with typical issues that derail a player. Perhaps it's his Mormon upbringing, but whatever it is...that's priceless when thrown to the wolves in front of millions of impatient coaches and sometimes unforgiving fans

[katkavage]

Very good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.

[Jclayton92]

Very good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.

Since 2018 the late 1st early 2nd qbs have all panned out besides Levis and Lock. Love, Hurts, and Jackson have all been very successful. I don't think Levis and Lock were even thar big of busts considered they were drafted in the 2nd, Levis just lucked out with a new coaching staff and Lock was part of the Wilson Denver trade.

[Crypto Fareez]

Very good thread. We have to remember that if Dart is a success that it will be against the odds. QBs taken late in the first round or early second have not seen much success. I worry very much on what I see here and on social media about the hype around him. In fact, I've rarely seen so much hype centered on a QB picked so late in the first round (due to a trade) in a weak QB class. Let's just hope he beats the odds and can be a capable NFL starter but we must be realistic that 7 on 7 during OTAs and even preseason will not determine anything, good or bad. I remember how wonderful Zach Wilson looked during his Jets rookie preseason. And he was a number two pick.

It's true but it's a complex feature of how the NFL works. The qb's drafted high like DJ will get YEARS to work through kinks (maybe even a new contract like DJ or Blake Bortles) the team is in a position where they don't understand the sunk cost fallacy. They just keep praying and throwing assets at it hoping for a good resolution. Guys drafted later by a bad team basically need a series of events to happen to find success on that team. Just like guys drafted high even if they aren't good, they will get a second chance for usually pretty good money. Every team had the rated high and they will think can fix them. (Just like we did with that stripper back in 90's 🤣)

Also, they might have high player and coach or front office turnover, further stunting development. For the later drafted qb's who have made it have gone to solid, maybe even lights out rosters. Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Brock Purdy, Dak. That was part of their success. On a bad team, they would have never been drafted high enough to get a shot. I always felt the Giants fans on X were ridiculous for thinking a late round qb was going to turn the team around. Our roster is not strong like the recent examples of late round qb's who have succeeded.

Time will tell, I might be very negative about certain aspects of the Giants. But I feel like they nailed that pick. Dart has the intelligence, work ethic, and physical attributes to be in the #5-10 range of NFL qb's.