What We Have All Been Waiting On

[DaveBrown74]

Fantasy Football is helpful for this particular topic, since they are always looking for breakout WRs


According to research from Sam Ryner's original article:

From 2012 to 2021, an average of 4.4 first-time WR1s emerged per season.
Over 50% of these breakouts came in Year 2 or Year 3, reinforcing the idea that early-career development is key.
34% first became WR1s in their third season
20% in their second season
16% in their fifth season
11% in their rookie season
0% in Year 7, Year 9, Year 10 or Year 12 or later

Recent Seasons: New WR1 Breakouts
Unfortunately, Ryner's article stopped after the 2022 season. But I've gone back over the last three years and added the desired data (full PPR scoring).

2022:

5 new WR1s
3 second-year WRs
1 third-year WR
1 fifth-year WR
2023:

3 new WR1s
1 rookie
1 third-year WR
1 sixth-year WR
2024:

8 new WR1s
3 rookies
2 third-year WRs
1 fifth-year WR
1 sixth-year WR
Key Data:

Year 2/Year 3 WRs = 44% of breakouts
Rookies = 25%
Year 5/Year 6 WRs = 25% (often on new teams)

https://www.fantasypros.com/2025/06/identifying-the-next-breakout-wide-receivers-fantasy-football/?utm_source=chatgpt.com


Again, I am not saying Hyatt is going to break out. I am simply pointing out that my assumption (and I believe yours) that if a WR hasn't shown something in his first two years, he is a longshot to ever produce is mistaken

Again I think it's very important to contextualize this. The article you just provided mentions guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Those two may indeed have had "breakout" third seasons, but they were coming from a totally different first two year base than Hyatt is. Same thing with Dez Bryant, who is in the article in your previous post.

Myself, I think there's a huge difference between a player who was "ok" or "decent" in his first two seasons and then became good or great in year or three and a player who did literally next to nothing in his first two seasons. So far, I have not found anyone in the last 10-15 years with production similar to Hyatt's first two seasons who ended up being anything in the NFL.

Wes Welker is the only example I was able to find, but his rookie season was over 20 years ago. Up to you if you want to call that "the modern NFL." I wouldn't myself. Plus, Welker was undrafted, which is an entirely different dynamic for a rookie or second year player than having the sort of name recognition and draft status that Hyatt did coming into the league.

Beyond Welker, who has some clear contextual asterisks insofar as being used as a reliable comp to Hyatt, I can't find anyone whose first two years look anything like Hyatt's who ended up being a noteworthy NFL player. The "third year breakout" term in both articles you have provided casts a wide net that includes players who showed much, much more in their first two seasons than Hyatt has to this point. Given how unproductive Hyatt has been so far, I don't see how those players can be used as comps or as any sort of reassurance that Hyatt has a realistic chance of ending up being a quality NFL receiver.

Obviously that does not mean it cannot or will not happen. Of course, it might. My point is simply that the actual data appears to indicate quite strongly that this outcome (for a player with a first two years that look like Hyatt's) is extremely rare, if not close to unheard of in reasonably recent times, and therefore probably pretty unlikely.

[LennG]

Every year we get excited about Thibs, only, by mid-season, start talking 'bust'. Let's hope he can finally put all the pieces together and show why he was a top 5 draft pick. Up until now, he hasn't earned what he has been making.

[Trench]

It wasn't just the offense Hyatt came out of that made him a risky draft pick. Football-wise, at TEN, he lined up in the offset slot a ton, which kept him away from press coverage. In the NFL, this dude is not a slot WR. He stinks working the short and intermediate middle. So you have to line him up outside, but then he's going to get pressed and knocked off his route. Sure, he can get a step deep, but he also leaves no room up the sideline to place the ball. NFL CBs are really good, and trained to never let a guy run up the hash. Meanwhile WRs are trained to always get up the hash. It's a game within the game dogfight. If you go deep, they knock you towards the sideline.

Watch Nabers go deep - like most legit WR1's he is strong as a bull and gets upfield on the hashmark with room to the sideline for a QB to place the ball over the outside shoulder. Hyatt just gets bullied out there, leaves little room to throw and does not compete at the catch point. I'll bet that preseason INT last year vs. the Texans really pissed Daboll off. (Where Stingley just abused him.)

Sure, every once in a while he'll blow by a guy and make a deep catch. But the vast majority of the time, this guy's getting manhandled and pushed around. And any other route he runs looks rounded and pretty damn ugly. And on top of that, he was dropping balls last year too. And on top of that, you have to be able to run the full route tree as an outside WR.

AND on top of the football, he was known to be immature with a poor attitude when things didn't go his way (which they oftentimes don't in the NFL).

There is no mystery here why he isn't playing. He can't reliably line up inside or outside. What are you going to do? It's not just Brian Daboll doesn't like him for some petty reason. For what he's shown, he's a 1-trick pony that is a WR4 at best, but does not contribute to specials. And that's with a good attitude. With a bad attitude? There isn't much use for him.

I respectfully disagree. How can we say he isn't good at the inside, intermediate and short when he rarely if ever was targeted. I didn't see him get manhandled in the plays I can remember, but I did however see him have a couple steps on his defender MANY times only to have the ball not come his way or the ball underthrown and or overthrown countless times. I think Russel Wilson is excellent at deep throws down the sideline (which apparently is in Hyatts wheel house) so time will tell.

In any event it's fun and exciting to hope as we begin the summer. I hope I don't regret this but I'm very optimistic about this team even though I usually have gotten disappointed the past several years.

[Trench]

Cooper Kupp has interesting stats in terms of his first few years. Year (3) was a huge jump in production. Granted he had a Hall of Fame QB.

Receptions:
2017 - 62 (95 targets)
2018 - 40 (55 targets)
2019 - 94 (134 targets)
2020 - 92 (124 targets)
2021 - 145 (191 targets)

[DaveBrown74]

Cooper Kupp has interesting stats in terms of his first few years. Year (3) was a huge jump in production. Granted he had a Hall of Fame QB.

Receptions:
2017 - 62 (95 targets)
2018 - 40 (55 targets)
2019 - 94 (134 targets)
2020 - 92 (124 targets)
2021 - 145 (191 targets)

Totally agree there are a bunch of receivers who were just decent for their first couple seasons and then broke out to being excellent players in year three. No question about that. Kupp is one example, and Rich provided some articles that highlight a few others like St. Brown and Dez Bryant.

What you just about never see though are receivers who, despite being available and suiting up for games, do literally next to nothing in their first two years and then suddenly become good players in year three. If this happens with Hyatt, it would be an extremely rare (if not unheard of) example in the modern NFL.

[AZGiantFan]

Totally agree there are a bunch of receivers who were just decent for their first couple seasons and then broke out to being excellent players in year three. No question about that. Kupp is one example, and Rich provided some articles that highlight a few others like St. Brown and Dez Bryant.

What you just about never see though are receivers who, despite being available and suiting up for games, do literally next to nothing in their first two years and then suddenly become good players in year three. If this happens with Hyatt, it would be an extremely rare (if not unheard of) example in the modern NFL.

It was quite a while ago and I don't claim it proves anything, but the Giants' own Amani Toomer didn't do much until his year 4.

[DaveBrown74]

It was quite a while ago and I don't claim it proves anything, but the Giants' own Amani Toomer didn't do much until his year 4.

Yup, agreed. He's one of the extremely rare examples. And, as you clearly state, we had to go back just shy of 30 years to dig him up. I'm pretty sure he also had an ACL in his rookie season. That doesn't invalidate bringing him up, but it was likely a substantial contributing factor to his struggles in his first few seasons.

[Bob In PA]

Again I think it's very important to contextualize this. The article you just provided mentions guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Those two may indeed have had "breakout" third seasons, but they were coming from a totally different first two year base than Hyatt is. Same thing with Dez Bryant, who is in the article in your previous post.

DB: I don't want to agree with your excellent post... but I do. Still, I see reason for hope. I didn't research this but I don't believe any of the examples was a case where the QB changed in year three. Bob

[DaveBrown74]

DB: I don't want to agree with your excellent post... but I do. Still, I see reason for hope. I didn't research this but I don't believe any of the examples was a case where the QB changed in year three. Bob

Bob,

I certainly agree that there is reason for hope for the overall offense being better due to the significantly better QB room this year. No doubt about that.

Still, despite the challenges at QB, there were eight players on the team who had more receiving yards than Hyatt in 2024. So it's probably reasonable to conclude that there were issues with him that extended beyond the fact that our QBs stunk.

[spiderblue43]

Carter was an obvious selection...and looks very much like a real force already. That's where this team can build upon..defense intensity.. To turnovers..sacks.

Have been optimistic about their progress. Now the injured Nabers and AT are needed back by August. That would really help..crucial.

[Jclayton92]

Carter was an obvious selection...and looks very much like a real force already. That's where this team can build upon..defense intensity.. To turnovers..sacks.

Have been optimistic about their progress. Now the injured Nabers and AT are needed back by August. That would really help..crucial.

I have seen a bunch of Jags OTAs and I am glad they took Hunter which left Carter for us. I don't think people would be talking about the defense in the same way that they are currently if we had taken Hunter.

[Philosophers]

These are the 4 big things I took away from OTAs the past couple of days.

1) Neal impressing at LG, which is great because we have no news on Runyan post surgery. We have so many guys not working that I think we'd all like info on. Nabers, Skattebo, Thomas, Dimukeje, and yhe list goes on. 

2) The Jalin Hyatt hype is way overblown, the coaches are saying almost verbatim what they said last year regarding his strength, focus etc and nothing came of it. So I would pump the breaks just a little, yes he does have a connection with Russ but so does every other WR on the team. When Nabers comes back, Hyatt will split reps with Slayton and I don't know that he'll get the snaps to have the production people think he'll have.

3 Flott is getting a ton of reps opposite Adebo, either Flott is building off his great end to last season, or the coaches want to give Banks some rest.

4. The Jaxson Dart news is wild right now. Athlon and a few other publications wrote wild pieces saying that all Giants fans have revolted against Dart and the FO because we didn't take Sanders. The coaches specifically said they were making things hard on Dart this week so that he does have bad days but instead of adding that context into the piece they just run wild.

It's Russell doing the actual hype about Hyatt.  Fans just like it.

Russell is not hyping WanDale or Slayton.