Things have gotten real interesting in Russia

[MightyGiants]

The head of their private military group is now fighting Russian forces

https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[DaveBrown74]

Very interesting indeed. Just reading Wagner is now 6 hours from Moscow?

While on the one hand it's nice to see someone internal publicly standing up to Putin, I'm not sure how good any of this is for the rest of the world.

[MightyGiants]

Very interesting indeed. Just reading Wagner is now 6 hours from Moscow?

While on the one hand it's nice to see someone internal publicly standing up to Putin, I'm not sure how good any of this is for the rest of the world.

Realistically, I think this could be the beginning of the end of the Ukrainian conflict.   Regardless of the outcome, the disruption of the Russian military will make their tenuous situation in Ukraine much worse.  In terms of Russia, Prigozhin is no better (morally) than Putin.  The best-case scenario is a clear victory for one side or the other, which leaves Russia greatly weakened to the point where they withdraw from its external meddling for a while.   Of course, when a country has nukes instability is always a serious concern.

[MightyGiants]

Here are a couple of good Twitter accounts to follow the story

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA

https://twitter.com/AVindman

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en

[DaveBrown74]

My understanding is Wagner group is a max of 25k troops. Putin has multiple other paramilitary groups that are loyal to him. I'm struggling to see how Wagner has the man power or support to pull off an actual, legit, sustainable coup. This seems like a suicide mission being carried out by a pissed off, unhinged man on a suicide mission.

Obviously if nukes come into play then that's a bona fide global worry, but I'm struggling to understand how this guy has the guys to pull this off.

[MightyGiants]

My understanding is Wagner group is a max of 25k troops. Putin has multiple other paramilitary groups that are loyal to him. I'm struggling to see how Wagner has the man power or support to pull off an actual, legit, sustainable coup. This seems like a suicide mission being carried out by a pissed off, unhinged man on a suicide mission.

Obviously if nukes come into play then that's a bona fide global worry, but I'm struggling to understand how this guy has the guys to pull this off.

Jeff,

From the reports I have been hearing, troops are not exactly loyal to Putin.   A year of using troops as cannon fodder in Ukraine will tend to do that.   It's really going to come down to how many troops will join or refuse to stop Wagner.  From what I have read, not many troops are willing to stand up against Wagner.

[Bob In PA]

Not surprised. Mercenaries are unreliable; their allegiance is based solely on who pays them the most money. Bob

[MightyGiants]

Did not see the twist of an aborted coup.   I think it still leaves Putin and the military in a weakened state.  Trusts have been shattered

[Ed Vette]

Apparently they never had the unwavering support for the offensive they planned on having or this is a regroup. At some point Putin has him assassinated. 

[Sem]

Apparently they never had the unwavering support for the offensive they planned on having or this is a regroup. At some point Putin has him assassinated. 

Could be Ed. One thing is certain though, this story is far from over.

[MightyGiants]

Apparently they never had the unwavering support for the offensive they planned on having or this is a regroup. At some point Putin has him assassinated. 

Likely he "falls" out a  window

[Ed Vette]

Likely he "falls" out a  window

Or gets very sick and dies.

The other possibility is that Putin doesn't have the total support and power from the Oligarchs and their military he once had. Something is going on behind the scenes. Seems like he's being reigned in. They haven't had a great leader since Gorbachev.