Kurt Warner talks evaluating QBs

[MightyGiants]

I know many of you LOVE college football, but as I start to dive into these college QBs, it's hard for me to even watch: very few play on schedule, the pass concepts are a mess most of the time, they run the same play over & over, a million bubble screens, can't find many concepts that translate to next level... and then ppl are asked to figure out how good they will be at next level!? (Nearly impossible in my mind)

For me CJ Stroud is a great example - obviously really good in college & OSU runs more pro-style concepts than most but they didn't ask him to process & get ball out as quickly as he did last year in HOU - so I had no idea he would be so good at processing so fast! He's better in NFL than what we got to see in college, but many times you just don't know until you know!

https://x.com/kurt13warner/status/1761001230522810731?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ

[MightyGiants]

@DaveBrown74 and I were discussing the challenges of scouting and drafting a college QB.

I would say the stuff Kurt Warner discussed is a start.

Here's the reality: there isn't that much difference in talent for a given tier of QBs (and there are not nearly as many tiers as we like to think).   So we can watch tape and get some ideas, but the reality there is so much more that goes in the success and failure of a QB prospect.

1)  Injury luck-  Part of injuries is luck, part is how resistant they are to injury, part is how they protect themselves, and part is how the team protects them.

2)  How well a team can develop a QB-  This is huge as the college game is very different than the NFL game, from the location of the hashes to the types of plays run and the level of competition to taking snaps from under center.

3) Mental makeup of a QB (something you can't tell from watching the tape)-  How quick are their brains?  How smart are they in terms of picking up plays and defenses?  How well do they operate under pressure?  (As an EMT, I saw people who were great in the classroom, to the point they could teach, but when lives were on the line and time was critical, they couldn't keep their cool)  How well do they handle setbacks?  What is their work ethic?  How are their leadership ability?

4) How well does the scheme match the QB's strengths and weaknesses?  (not all teams will change their scheme to match their QB)

5) How good is the support system around the QB (pass blocking, receivers and to a lesser extent the running game and defense).  It's harder to develop when there is poor support and/or poor coaching



Now, even with all that, it's a competition.  By definition, there are only 10 top 10 QBs.  So more teams than not will not have a top QB.  So many times teams will draft a QB hoping they will be good, rather than feeling confident they will be good.