Would you give 6 and 70 to Arizona for 4 to get a QB?

[AYM]

I get it, but it was still a material trade-up in terms of the assets they gave up.

I wonder how big the sample size is for that supposed 90% failure rate. I can't imagine it's that big.

So I'm curious, let me take a look at a 30 year span from 1993-2022 (2023 is too soon to tell). I'll bold the ones that I consider to be busts or disappointments and increase the size of the ones I consider historic/all-time busts.

* - for all intents and purposes
** - he most definitely was a bust from the perspective of the pick used on him

1993 - Drew Bledsoe (1)
1994 - Heath Shuler (3)
1995 - Steve McNair (3), Kerry Collins** (5 - traded down from 1)
1996 - None
1997 - None
1998 - Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2 - traded up from 3)
1999 - Tim Couch (1), Donovan F. McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3)
2000 - no QBs in the top 5
2001 - Michael Vick (1 - traded up from 5)
2002 - David Carr (1), Joey Harrington (3)
2003 - Carson Palmer (1)
2004 - Eli Manning (1 - traded up from 4*), Philip Rivers (4 - traded down from 1*)
2005 - Alex Smith (1)
2006 - Vince Young (3)
2007 - Jamarcus Russell (1)
2008 - Matt Ryan (3)
2009 - Matt Stafford (1), Mark Sanchez (5 - traded up from 17)
2010 - Sam Bradford (1)
2011 - Cam Newton (1)
2012 - Andrew Luck (1), RG3 (2 - traded up from 6)
2013 - None
2014 - Blake Bortles (3)
2015 - Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)
2016 - Jared Goff (1 - traded up from 15), Carson Wentz (2 - traded up from 8)
2017 - Mitch Trubisky (2 - traded up from 3)
2018 - Baker Mayfield (1), Sam Darnold (3 - traded up from 6)
2019 - Kyler Murray (1)
2020 - Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5)
2021 - Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3 - traded up from 12)
2022 - None

In conclusion, it looks like here are the times a team moved up into the top 5 to get a QB:

Mark Sanchez
RG3
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Sam Darnold
Trey Lance

Edit AGAIN: Depending on how you look at that, that's a 83% failure rate or a 100% failure rate considering the Rams gave up on Goff. I struggle to classify Goff. (And Wentz for that matter)

I'm not sure where the 90% figure came from. Not a large sample size but interesting.

[spiderblue43]

Trading up is a bad move almost always for a qb. If the Giants have interest from the Cards, I'm trading up for MHJ. He's is as close there is to a surefire success.

[DaveBrown74]

So I'm curious, let me take a look at a 30 year span from 1993-2022 (2023 is too soon to tell). I'll bold the ones that I consider to be busts or disappointments and increase the size of the ones I consider historic/all-time busts.

* - for all intents and purposes
** - he most definitely was a bust from the perspective of the pick used on him

1993 - Drew Bledsoe (1)
1994 - Heath Shuler (3)
1995 - Steve McNair (3), Kerry Collins** (5 - traded down from 1)
1996 - None
1997 - None
1998 - Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2 - traded up from 3)
1999 - Tim Couch (1), Donovan F. McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3)
2000 - no QBs in the top 5
2001 - Michael Vick (1 - traded up from 5)
2002 - David Carr (1), Joey Harrington (3)
2003 - Carson Palmer (1)
2004 - Eli Manning (1 - traded up from 4*), Philip Rivers (4 - traded down from 1*)
2005 - Alex Smith (1)
2006 - Vince Young (3)
2007 - Jamarcus Russell (1)
2008 - Matt Ryan (3)
2009 - Matt Stafford (1), Mark Sanchez (5 - traded up from 17)
2010 - Sam Bradford (1)
2011 - Cam Newton (1)
2012 - Andrew Luck (1), RG3 (2 - traded up from 6)
2013 - None
2014 - Blake Bortles (3)
2015 - Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)
2016 - Jared Goff (1 - traded up from 15), Carson Wentz (2 - traded up from 8)
2017 - Mitch Trubisky (2 - traded up from 3)
2018 - Baker Mayfield (1), Sam Darnold (3 - traded up from 6)
2019 - Kyler Murray (1)
2020 - Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5)
2021 - Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3 - traded up from 12)
2022 - None

In conclusion, it looks like here are the times a team moved up into the top 5 to get a QB:

Mark Sanchez
RG3
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Sam Darnold
Trey Lance

Edit AGAIN: Depending on how you look at that, that's a 83% failure rate or a 100% failure rate considering the Rams gave up on Goff. I struggle to classify Goff. (And Wentz for that matter)

I'm not sure where the 90% figure came from. Not a large sample size but interesting.

Thanks for doing this. I agree it's interesting despite being a small sample. Most were total failures.

[Bob In PA]

Yeah, drafting a high 1st-round QB is definitely not for the faint of heart. lol

[y_so_blu]

1. We have many holes, but the most difficult one to fill is the QB position. If you don't have the right guy in there, you don't contend.

2. The "right guy" is more likely to be in this draft than the next.

3. The Vikings trading up so long before the draft showed their hand; they're desperate to get a guy, and they probably think that guy is JJ. I'm of the same opinion. But I want him for us, not for them. Call me selfish. 

For these reasons, the answer is yes. I would make that trade in order to leapfrog the Vikings and draft JJ McCarthy. Admittedly Maye is the better prospect by pretty much every statistic you can measure; he ticks so many boxes that the question is more "how can he fail" than "how can he succeed?" And if we had to start a new guy Week 1, he's the QB I'd take.

Fortunately we're not in that position, and there's more to the game than measurables. Daniel Jones has enough left to hold down the fort while our new QB settles in and learns. So we can afford to take the one who I think has the higher ceiling, McCarthy.

[expatriot]

I like McCarthy better than Maye. Maye makes too many questionable throws.  McCarthy played big games and adapted to the system as he was asked.  Harbaugh loves him. I respect Harbaugh. Yeah I'd move up.

[andrew_nyGiants]

This is why I'm so passionate about trading down instead of trading up.

You're going to give away those assets to move from 6 to 4 when the QB drop off is after the 3rd QB is picked?!

It's just not worth it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[MightyGiants]

This is why I'm so passionate about trading down instead of trading up.

You're going to give away those assets to move from 6 to 4 when the QB drop off is after the 3rd QB is picked?!

It's just not worth it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

If the Giants were to trade with say the Vikings and netted an 11th and 23rd, they could get a true number one WR and possibly a QB like Nix (who I believe will go somewhere in round one) or Penix (who might last to the beginning of round 2)