My little analytics study using PFF

[MightyGiants]

In the Hard Knocks threads, I talked about the diminishing value of the run and how John Mara and his Nephew were all about Barkley being the face of the offense and powering the offense.   I know I have read (recently) about how passing on downs is more valuable than running.  I tried to research to find a good article laying that out.  I found a few articles from 5 years ago, but not the one I read recently and not one that I felt definitively proved the point. 

So I decided to use PFF to do a little study.  I took the past 3 seasons.  I looked at the top 10 team passing grades, running grades, receiving grades, and defensive grades.   I assigned points to each playoff team that was in the top 10.  I gave one point for making it to the wild card round, 2 points if they made it to the divisional round etc.  They only got points for the furthest they made it to the play offs.   I then added up the point totals for the three seasons and here were the results:


Pass- 53

Rec- 47

Def- 45

Run- 34

The importance of the team's passer is hardly earth-shattering.   It's interesting how high receiving played into a team's success.   Defense clearly isn't what "wins championships" anymore.   As for running, how little that contributed to team success is something the Mara clan needs to learn.

[Bob In PA]

Rich: Good idea, but... I think you have to temper some of those conclusions with recognition that teams with lousy defenses don't get the ball to the offense as much as good defensive units, so, although separating the elements as you have is interesting, I don't think it fully accounts for reality.  Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Good idea, but... I think you have to temper some of those conclusions with recognition that teams with lousy defenses don't get the ball to the offense as much as good defensive units, so, although separating the elements as you have is interesting, I don't think it fully accounts for reality.  Bob

Bob,

In my mind, offense and defense are like chicken and egg. A defense has an easier time if it has to play defense for less than half the game because its offense is good. On the other hand, offenses have it easier if the defense gives them more opportunities. 

I will also share that my perspective comes from a background in science and engineering.  In engineering, it's all about creating mathematical models of the real world.   One of the things you learn early on is that you have to exclude certain variables, or the models become too complex and unwieldy for practical use.

So, I use the same principles when I do my various studies and when I am bored (still laid up from being hit by a car, I can't put weight on my surgically repaired foot).  You could also argue about my point system as well.

[ralphpal1]

The last 2 years the chiefs won the superbowl cause the defense held the other team.close.enough for.mahomes.to.come.back to win the game

[MightyGiants]

The last 2 years the chiefs won the superbowl cause the defense held the other team.close.enough for.mahomes.to.come.back to win the game

That is correct.  Still, the issue is other teams need to compete and I think this study indicates which areas the team needs to focus on.   I think this study indicates RB isn't where a team should be focusing resources.