QB play down across he league

[shadowspinner0]

I saw a stat that there have been only 66 touchdowns thrown so far this season, and unless the MNF game combines for 20 TD's, they won't reach the 86 mark from last season.  86 was also close to 20 less than the previous season and the years before that were steady numbers.  There's been a huge drop in QB production the last two seasons and I don't know why.  Also it's been 2 weeks and no rookies have thrown a touchdown.  This is the first time its ever happened when multiple rookies have started first two weeks. 

Does anyone have any good theories as to why this is?

https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835662170618577113
https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835659137327268104
https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835657869640806868

[kingm56]

It's evolution; teams are all playing 2 deep safeties or a lot of quarters.  It's actually a brilliant move as a lot of teams are not equipped with power running games or TEs to challenge the seams.  Eventually, the Offenses will adapt and the cat and mouse game continues.

[uconnjack8]

Some of this is sloppy play from a shorter preseason and less snaps for starters.

[zephirus]

A couple of things occur to me.

- Over the last 10-15 years collegiate play-calling has become more influential on the pros.  While teams still want pro-style quarterbacks, innovations at the collegiate level defined success criteria differently and have put considerably more emphasis on athleticism and a quarterbacks ability to run.  This has necessarily meant that the "best" incoming talent into the NFL is now incomplete from what the standard was in years past.  You are getting more prospects like Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, etc.  By augmenting their game with designed runs, they pass for fewer yards and often convert touchdowns with their legs at a much as their arm.

- In addition to the different profile of quarterback that's incoming, the rookie wage scale and contract length demand that rookie quarterbacks start immediately.  You generally only have 3 years with an incoming quarterback to determine whether or not he's the future of the franchise before you're going to have to pony up, exercise the 5th year option, etc.  This means teams have to start quarterbacks sooner than they might ideally like to - and the result is that young QBs make more mistakes than vets.

- Because of both of the above there are two competing dynamics.  The modus operandi of many franchises that don't have a good quarterback is keep drafting quarterbacks until you find one that sticks.  This only compound bad quarterback play as you're going to have roughly 20-25% of the league starting rookie or 2nd year play-callers.  There are 8 teams right now that are in that category, 9 if you were to include the Vikings who would have started a rookie if he hadn't gotten hurt. You are also seeing a slew of teams who think they've found their franchise quarterback to dole out ungodly sums to quarterbacks who are largely still unproven.  Look at the quarterbacks who got big money this past off-season or last year.  Many of them are actually quite middling (Trevor Lawrence looks that way, Joe Burrow runs hot/cold, Kyler Murray, DeShaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa), etc.  Then you're stuck in QB purgatory - a place Giants fans should feel familiar with now in our 6th season of mediocrity because we paid too much to Daniel Jones.   

[DaveBrown74]

Nobody has mentioned officiating to this point. I don't have any data in front of me so I'm not making a factual claim here, but in the opening Thursday night game, many pre-snap procedural type penalties were being called. It was getting to the point where it was a bit ridiculous. Collinsworth stated in that broadcast that the league was cracking down.

If a lot more offensive penalties are deliberately being called, it makes sense to me that scoring numbers would go down. There's a big difference between first and 10 and first and 15.

[Ed Vette]

Excellent replies. 

[JT39]

Worst kept secret.

QB play in this league is really down and bad. We see it first hand with Jones - but there are a lot of bad to average QBs in the league.

[Woody]

I saw a stat that there have been only 66 touchdowns thrown so far this season, and unless the MNF game combines for 20 TD's, they won't reach the 86 mark from last season.  86 was also close to 20 less than the previous season and the years before that were steady numbers.  There's been a huge drop in QB production the last two seasons and I don't know why.  Also it's been 2 weeks and no rookies have thrown a touchdown.  This is the first time its ever happened when multiple rookies have started first two weeks. 

Does anyone have any good theories as to why this is?

https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835662170618577113
https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835659137327268104
https://x.com/LordReebs/status/1835657869640806868

Preseason work is becoming a joke.......nobody is ready to play in September.....defense ahead of offense in most cases.
Players union and league concessions in order to get more reg season games.  Has turned September games into extended preseason work


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