NGT - 3rd down defense & rally and tackle ideology

[zephirus]

I get the opportunity from the Sunday ticket to watch condensed versions of every game (no downtime between plays, no commercials) and usually watch several non-Giant games during the week.  There's an NFL-wide theme that nobody seems to be addressing or even talking about, wanted to pick your guys' brains.

Traditional 3rd down defense still seems to reign supreme on 3rd and long.  Get some additional pressure from a blitzer, make the QB throw to the hot-read, and rely on your secondary to rally and get the ball-carrier to the ground before the sticks.  There is often little to no contest about the reception itself, the defenders simply want to make a tackle.  I feel like most defensive coordinators would be very happy to concede yards that lead to a 4th and 1, 4th and 2. 

Is this really the right approach anymore?  In watching games I see:

- 3rd and longs (including 10+) being converted outright a pretty high clip. 
- wide receivers are better at YAC than ever and can often make the first man miss.  Combine that with erosion of tackling over the years and you have a recipe for lots of conversions.
- more and more head coaches are comfortable going for it on 4th down, especially in short yardage.  Conventional wisdom of forcing a "4th and short" does not mean the offense is gonna punt as often as it used to. 

[AZGiantFan]

I get the opportunity from the Sunday ticket to watch condensed versions of every game (no downtime between plays, no commercials) and usually watch several non-Giant games during the week.  There's an NFL-wide theme that nobody seems to be addressing or even talking about, wanted to pick your guys' brains.

Traditional 3rd down defense still seems to reign supreme on 3rd and long.  Get some additional pressure from a blitzer, make the QB throw to the hot-read, and rely on your secondary to rally and get the ball-carrier to the ground before the sticks.  There is often little to no contest about the reception itself, the defenders simply want to make a tackle.  I feel like most defensive coordinators would be very happy to concede yards that lead to a 4th and 1, 4th and 2. 

Is this really the right approach anymore?  In watching games I see:

- 3rd and longs (including 10+) being converted outright a pretty high clip. 
- wide receivers are better at YAC than ever and can often make the first man miss.  Combine that with erosion of tackling over the years and you have a recipe for lots of conversions.
- more and more head coaches are comfortable going for it on 4th down, especially in short yardage.  Conventional wisdom of forcing a "4th and short" does not mean the offense is gonna punt as often as it used to. 

That is a really interesting point.  I wonder if I could find some historical stats on 3rd and long conversion rates.  If I do I'll bring them to the board.