ESPN projects the Giants having the best chance to draf 1st overall

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/JordanRaanan/status/1856411521225765078

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN to assess team strength and forecast game and season outcomes in American football. It evaluates teams based on offensive, defensive, and special teams performance, providing a comprehensive measure of overall capability.

1. New York Giants (2-8)
Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 65.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.7%


2. New England Patriots (2-8)
Average draft position: 4.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 65.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.5%


3. Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Average draft position: 5.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 60.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 91.3%


4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Average draft position: 5.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 14.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 56.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.6%


https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/story/_/id/41195230/2025-nfl-draft-order-projections-first-round-picks

[EDjohnst1981]

I'm not sure where the next win comes from. So I'm not surprised.

[MightyGiants]

I'm not sure where the next win comes from. So I'm not surprised.

The Saints and Cowboys will be perhaps the weakest opponents.

A tier above them:

The Bucs (especially if Wirfs is still hurt) and the Colts

[MightyGiants]

Somewhat related and I just wanted to share without starting a new thread


https://x.com/NFLNotify/status/1856421066824135100

[uconnjack8]

The Saints and Cowboys will be perhaps the weakest opponents.

A tier above them:

The Bucs (especially if Wirfs is still hurt) and the Colts

Only thing I would add is that the closer you get to the end of the season the more teams have reasons to set guys or try young guys...... Like week 18 Philly could be resting people if they are locked in to a playoff spot.  You mentioned Indy and I agree for a few reasons, not the least of which is if they are out of the hunt, it's likely Richardson will be back under center.

[katkavage]

Only thing I would add is that the closer you get to the end of the season the more teams have reasons to set guys or try young guys...... Like week 18 Philly could be resting people if they are locked in to a playoff spot.  You mentioned Indy and I agree for a few reasons, not the least of which is if they are out of the hunt, it's likely Richardson will be back under center.

The Giants should "rest" people for that last game if the #1 -3 spot is on the line for the draft. Sorry if Philly can tank by resting players, so can the Giants.

[EDjohnst1981]

The Saints and Cowboys will be perhaps the weakest opponents.

A tier above them:

The Bucs (especially if Wirfs is still hurt) and the Colts

I personally think each of those of those Tesms are stronger than the Giants.

Saints have Carr back and will win more than the giants

Cows are a mess but Jerrah will want a winning product. They also aren't in the hunt for a QB. They also have to play the Ginants on Thanksgiving and I don't see them dropping that in their house.

Colts are in a weak division. Flacco is in a poor run of form but they have a very good RB and I think they will win more than the Giants.

[MightyGiants]

The Giants should "rest" people for that last game if the #1 -3 spot is on the line for the draft. Sorry if Philly can tank by resting players, so can the Giants.

when you suck like the Giants you don't call it "resting", you call it young player development or "I want to see what we have in FILL IN THE BLANK"

[DaveBrown74]

I disagree with this projection, because even if some probability-driven model claims this is true, that model doesn't take into account that we have an owner who clearly highly values winning meaningless games very late in a lost, debacle type season. Let's just say other owners around the league value these kinds of wins less. We have seen plenty of evidence with this, including right in our own division.

The good news is we're so bad that we may possibly not win another game, even if everyone is trying their absolute hardest. The biggest fear around this is that they go with DeVito instead of Lock. That would require an implicit, public admission on their part that the Lock signing was a terrible one on their parts. I can't see them doing that.