Does it matter where in round one you draft a quarterback

[MightyGiants]

The only way to know if you overpay for something is to know what others would pay for it.  If every other team would not draft Dart until the 2nd round and you drafted at 3 you overpaid regardless of how good he becomes because theoretically you could have positioned yourself at end of first round to get him.

The problem is there is no way of knowing what other teams will pay.  There are 31 other teams and at least a third of them need a QB or could use a QB upgrade and it takes only one to mess up the plan.

Things would be easier if the Giants currently had a solid QB option.  Then you can gamble and try and maximize value.  When you are in the situation the Giants are in, missing out on a franchise QB,l by having another team jump you, could be devastating (at least for Schoen and Daboll and at the 2025 season).

[Bob In PA]

I'm sorry, but am I the only one with a nervous/anxious twitch reading this?  This is almost exactly the conversation we had around drafting Daniel Jones at 6. 

While I completely agree with you, Rich, in premise- I can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices.  I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right?  Just because a team believes in a QB and pulls the trigger unfortunately does not minimize the real gamble that team is taking with the pick.  As we have seen painfully play out over the last 5 years. 

I'm afraid I'm on the side of- pick a QB that high that deserves it or don't pick a QB at all.

PSU (and @MightyGiants): I can completely identify with your (PSU's) overall reaction. That is mine, too.

The problem with Jones was not that he was picked too high... the problem was the list of other QB's who were ALSO AVAILABLE TO BE DRAFTED when the Giants picked Jones.

When you jump outside-the-box, you must be certain not only about the guy you pick, but reasonably sure there isn't a better choice.

You have confidence in your pick, but it has to be the result of a complete review of all QB's and a conclusion that they guy you're taking outside-the-box is at least as good a prospect as the guys you're not taking.

As @Ed Vette and I have discussed, I don't believe the Giants cared who else was available... all to their detriment and years of disappointment for us fans. I can't PROVE this is what actually occurred but I'm reasonably sure, based on examination of mostly recent history.

Bob

PS. The possible difference this year is that it would be IMO perfectly reasonable for the Giants to take Dart, because IMO it would be a lot more reasonable to pass up Ward and Sanders... compared to the choices that were available the year they drafted Jones. And as Ed knows, the move of taking Dart at Pick Three would not surprise me in the least... in the sense I make this remark, it's simply an "instant replay" of the Jones situation (although if they do it this year I'm also going to favor it since I don't like Ward or Sanders enough in any event).

[EDjohnst1981]

The worst thing for Jones was dopey McAdoo being bigger than the show when he decided to kill Eli iron man streak with the kid. It was unnecessary and only added pressure. Had Jones sat a few more games at least (maybe even until the end of the season it would've served him and the Giants so much better.

He didn't. Eli was benched for Geno Smith.

[Ed Vette]

PSU (and @MightyGiants): I can completely identify with your (PSU's) overall reaction. That is mine, too.

The problem with Jones was not that he was picked too high... the problem was the list of other QB's who were ALSO AVAILABLE TO BE DRAFTED when the Giants picked Jones.

When you jump outside-the-box, you must be certain not only about the guy you pick, but reasonably sure there isn't a better choice.

You have confidence in your pick, but it has to be the result of an complete review of all QB's and a conclusion that they guy you're taking outside-the-box is at least as good a prospect as the guys you're not taking.

As @Ed Vette and I have discussed, I don't believe the Giants cared who else was available... all to their detriment and years of disappointment for us fans. I can't PROVE this is what actually occurred but I'm reasonably sure, based on examination of mostly recent history.

Bob

PS. The possible difference this year is that it would be IMO perfectly reasonable for the Giants to take Dart, because IMO it would be a lot more reasonable to pass up Ward and Sanders... compared to the choices that were available the year they drafted Jones. And as Ed knows, the move of taking Dart at Pick Three would not surprise me in the least... in the sense I make this remark, it's simply and "instant replay" of the Jones situation (although if they do it this year I'm also going to favor it since I don't like Ward or Sanders enough in any event.,

Bob, as I recall, there were no better choices at QB in that 2019 Draft. It's somewhat debatable if Murray was worth the first pick in the Draft. After Jones, Drew Lock was a mid-second round pick, then Grier late 3rd, and the rest of what Rich would refer to in his go-to colloquialism.

I believe the QB position is special and should not be slotted with other positions. Drafting Jones with the 6th pick wasn't the mistake, the mistake was holding on to him for 6 years.

Drake Maye struggled a bit last season but showed he was well worth that pick. Bo Nix also had an uneasy start. But with QBs you have to project ahead to the reward.

I believe that Dart may be the best QB in this Draft, but it's closer than a lot of "Experts" think with the top three guys. If they believe in Dart, they should draft him at 3 and not look back. It doesn't mean that if it was a mistake that they need to be married for more than 3 years to him.

I also believe this is a far better draft for QBs than the 2019 Draft. At least one and maybe more taken day 2-3, will prove to be good QBs imo.

I believe that Ward, Sanders, and Dart will need coaching and preparation of at least a half-season to be somewhat productive. That doesn't mean they should be held back, because I think all three will fight through it.

Take Dart, for instance. He is capable of making some fantastic throws, he demonstrated he can read pre and post snap and move through progressions. He can layer the passes nicely, had a good base and doesn't drift in the pocket. However, he also demonstrated that he's the Anti-DJ. When the checkdown is there and wide open, he tends to try to drive the ball downfield in tight and very questionable situations. Sometimes, it can be disastrous. Go watch the last quarter of the Florida game. The Gators were in Cover-2 most of the game. Ole Miss trailed by 7. he had all the time to take what the Defense was giving him, but two picks later, they lost by seven. Can he be coached out of that? Absolutely, but he will always be a Gun-Slinger at heart without the John Elway arm. Heck, even Favre lost games being aggressive. Eli lost games in WTH moments. So will Dart. Pick your poison. Dart although not a true NFL Dual-Threat, will do what Daboll wants and that is push the ball downfield and extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs.

I wouldn't take a chance on losing him by drafting back and being cute.

Will Howard might be the safest pick, and Pittsburgh would be a good landing spot for him. They should draft him with their first pick or lose him.

Tyler Shough is 25 years old, and he is spoken of because of Bo Nix and his experience. The big difference is that Shough has just one full complete season of football under his belt. It all came together last season. If the Giants don't pick a QB in round one, I would take him in round 2, because he may not last until round 3. What would be worse, moving up to take a CB in Banks in round 2 who may bust out, or a shot at a starting QB a year from now?         

[PSUBeirut]

@gregf and @PSUBeirut

The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).


That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?


I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?

I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?

I think we can take this piece completely off the table for discussion- I don't think there's anyone that would argue that if you need a franchise QB and you draft a guy at the top of the draft that becomes that QB for you, there is no question the pick is justified.  It's simply too important a position, so there is no such thing as overdrafting an actual franchise QB.

But that's a huge....huge if.  So the question becomes - what is the likelihood?  In my opinion, if the vast majority of scouts and front offices agree a QB prospect is a mid-late 1st round guy (or 2nd round), then the gamble is even larger / more magnified if you take that guy top 3.  In this case, it looks like it would be an even bigger gamble than Jones, who was generally slotted as a mid-1st round guy and we drafted him at #6. 

Also, as for Jones- we have enough evidence now to say that where he was originally slotted was clearly on target, if not generous.  He wasn't a clearcut franchise QB prospect and the way it has played out has proven that true.  Bo Nix is a good counterexample, except he was not drafted at #3 overall.  There's a big difference between #3 and #10 as far as "reach" is concerned (plus as you know it turns out he landed in the absolute best spot he could have, as a match with Payton). 

So I think the argument is a good/quality one, but I'm sticking with my gut saying if the scouting world views a guy like Dart as a mid-late round prospect then there is clearly not enough evidence that he's a franchise-level guy that should be drafted at #3.  I have no idea where the scouting world falls on this and I'm sure in the coming weeks it will become clearer (maybe!), but as of now I just don't think the gamble is worth it (again).

[Trench]

Bob, as I recall, there were no better choices at QB in that 2019 Draft. It's somewhat debatable if Murray was worth the first pick in the Draft. After Jones, Drew Lock was a mid-second round pick, then Grier late 3rd, and the rest of what Rich would refer to in his go-to colloquialism.

I believe the QB position is special and should not be slotted with other positions. Drafting Jones with the 6th pick wasn't the mistake, the mistake was holding on to him for 6 years.

Drake Maye struggled a bit last season but showed he was well worth that pick. Bo Nix also had an uneasy start. But with QBs you have to project ahead to the reward.

I believe that Dart may be the best QB in this Draft, but it's closer than a lot of "Experts" think with the top three guys. If they believe in Dart, they should draft him at 3 and not look back. It doesn't mean that if it was a mistake that they need to be married for more than 3 years to him.

I also believe this is a far better draft for QBs than the 2019 Draft. At least one and maybe more taken day 2-3, will prove to be good QBs imo.

I believe that Ward, Sanders, and Dart will need coaching and preparation of at least a half-season to be somewhat productive. That doesn't mean they should be held back, because I think all three will fight through it.

Take Dart, for instance. He is capable of making some fantastic throws, he demonstrated he can read pre and post snap and move through progressions. He can layer the passes nicely, had a good base and doesn't drift in the pocket. However, he also demonstrated that he's the Anti-DJ. When the checkdown is there and wide open, he tends to try to drive the ball downfield in tight and very questionable situations. Sometimes, it can be disastrous. Go watch the last quarter of the Florida game. The Gators were in Cover-2 most of the game. Ole Miss trailed by 7. he had all the time to take what the Defense was giving him, but two picks later, they lost by seven. Can he be coached out of that? Absolutely, but he will always be a Gun-Slinger at heart without the John Elway arm. Heck, even Favre lost games being aggressive. Eli lost games in WTH moments. So will Dart. Pick your poison. Dart although not a true NFL Dual-Threat, will do what Daboll wants and that is push the ball downfield and extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs.

I wouldn't take a chance on losing him by drafting back and being cute.

Will Howard might be the safest pick, and Pittsburgh would be a good landing spot for him. They should draft him with their first pick or lose him.

Tyler Shough is 25 years old, and he is spoken of because of Bo Nix and his experience. The big difference is that Shough has just one full complete season of football under his belt. It all came together last season. If the Giants don't pick a QB in round one, I would take him in round 2, because he may not last until round 3. What would be worse, moving up to take a CB in Banks in round 2 who may bust out, or a shot at a starting QB a year from now?         

This post illustrates just how difficult a GM and football operations/head coach decisions truly are.

[Ed Vette]

This post illustrates just how difficult a GM and football operations/head coach decisions truly are.

Patrick Mahomes was predicted to be the 2nd to 4th best QB in the 2017 Draft. Somewhere in the late first to early second round. Andy Reid knew better than the Scouting world. He traded up from the 27th pick to the 10th selection and drafted one of the greatest QBs of all time. McAdoo knew, but the vote by consensus Giants Organization poo pooed him. It's what separates Chicken Salad from the Plant-Based version.

[Trench]

Patrick Mahomes was predicted to be the 2nd to 4th best QB in the 2017 Draft. Somewhere in the late first to early second round. Andy Reid knew better than the Scouting world. He traded up from the 27th pick to the 10th selection and drafted one of the greatest QBs of all time. McAdoo knew, but the vote by consensus Giants Organization poo pooed him. It's what separates Chicken Salad from the Plant-Based version.

Wow. And also we can add Tom Brady draft to your example. McAdoo was spot on, as was Daboll on Jayden Daniels.

I look back at McAdoo and it just seems he wasn't ready for HC. But it's odd he hasn't gotten another chance.

[Painter]

History, while not a predictor of the future, certainly does give us a strong view of what is more likely to happen from Round to Round in terms of QB Draft success. How could anyone not know that? But, we also know why the Draft is so compelling yet can make us look quite silly on occasion. The answer? Chance, Luck, and O Fortuna, the fate that rules, the gods, guessers, and gamblers.

Cheers! 

[uconnjack8]

It's never too early when a pick changes a franchise's fortunes.

[Bob In PA]

It's never too early when a pick changes a franchise's fortunes.

uconn: ... but only if it works! Bob