The Decade History of The NY Giants Draft Picks

[Ed Vette]

We have a thread here based on an article about failed #1 Draft picks for the Giants. We have a lot of talk about how teams need to build from the Draft. There are teams that do this very well and they accrue Draft picks and comp picks. They give up on players about to age and deteriorate and build with youth.

The interesting fact is that the Giants have actually done pretty well with their first two Draft picks over the years. They have done well in Free Agency in most cases. How have they done in Drafting from rounds 3-7? Well...not very well at all. It's fair to mention that in rounds 4-7 teams draft for depth, development and Special Teams however there are players who are drafted in later rounds who have become outstanding players.

I won't look at last year's 2016 draft class because the jury is still out but I will say that it looks to be the best in this decade so far. It's arbitrary as to who had some meaningful contribution but I bolded those that are in my opinion. Here is 2010-2015 and you decide:

2015
Owa- 3
M. Thompson- 5
Davis- 6
Hart- 7

2014
Bromley- 3
A. Williams- 4
Berhe- 5
Kennard- 5
Jackson- 6

2013
Moore- 3
Nassib- 4
C. Taylor- 5
Herman- 7
Cox- 7

2012
Hosley- 3
A. Robinson- 4
Mosley- 4
McCants- 6
Kuhn- 7

2011
Prince- 1
Austin- 2
Jernigan- 3
Brewer- 4
G. Jones- 6
Sash- 6
J. Williams- 6
Scott- 7

2010
No #3
Dillard- 4
Petrus- 5
A. Tracy- 6
Dodge- 7

[Bob In PA]

Ed:  Do you believe your study allows us to rule out simple "bad luck" or is that still one of the options?  Bob

[Ed Vette]

In that group, what would be bad luck, Bob?

[Painter]

As I suggested in my comments in the "Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round" thread, it either is encouraging or worrisome that Reese & Co. have had obviously greater success since 2012 than it did in its years before.

If, as was suggested by Seneca (not Wallace but the Roman Stoic), "Luck is where opportunity meets preparation" then bad luck must imply either lack of opportunity or lack of preparation, or perhaps a little bit of both.

Would that leave us encouraged or worried? I don't think it can be a little of both. 

Cheers!

[Bob In PA]

In that group, what would be bad luck, Bob?

Ed: I'm referring to the fact that the draft is a crap-shoot to start with, so long runs of bad results in the later rounds are not a great surprise to me.

MOST draft picks after round three are already more likely than not to fail, so there are bound to be runs of what I term "bad luck" (meaning that the long-shots just never seem to come in).

I wonder how the data you cited compares to the first six years under George Young or Ernie Accorsi - or - how it compares to the same sixyear period for the Patriots (for example), but I'm too lazy to do the work, so I'm just going to go and look it up, hopefully for my own edification.  For the record, I believe I will find that they fared no better.

Bob

PS. A comparison to the Seahawks' past six drafts might be even more interesting.

PPS. I was too lazy to look up anything except the Seahawks, and I discovered an almost unheard-of run of great drafts, BUT all or virtually all of the successful picks were above round 4.  In fact, IMO, they picked more crap in rounds 4-7 during the past six years than the Giants.  Of course, my knowledge of their roster is a lot less "in-depth" than my knowledge of the Giants' roster.

[todge]

Ed: I'm referring to the fact that the draft is a crap-shoot to start with, so long runs of bad results in the later rounds are not a great surprise to me.

MOST draft picks after round three are already more likely than not to fail, so there are bound to be runs of what I term "bad luck" (meaning that the long-shots just never seem to come in).

I wonder how the data you cited compares to the first six years under George Young or Ernie Accorsi - or - how it compares to the same sixyear period for the Patriots (for example), but I'm too lazy to do the work, so I'm just going to go and look it up, hopefully for my own edification.  For the record, I believe I will find that they fared no better.

Bob

PS. A comparison to the Seahawks' past six drafts might be even more interesting.

PPS. I was too lazy to look up anything except the Seahawks, and I discovered an almost unheard-of run of great drafts, BUT all or virtually all of the successful picks were above round 4.  In fact, IMO, they picked more crap in rounds 4-7 during the past six years than the Giants.  Of course, my knowledge of their roster is a lot less "in-depth" than my knowledge of the Giants' roster.

I believe the percentage of Draft picks taken in Rounds 4-7 making NFL rosters is in the neighborhood of 10%.

Drafthistory.com is a great website for those interested.


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[MightyGiants]

I believe the percentage of Draft picks taken in Rounds 4-7 making NFL rosters is in the neighborhood of 10%.

Drafthistory.com is a great website for those interested.


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Ted even if we are considering finding a starter as successful, your 10% is much too low (especially for rounds 4 and 5)

Still it's not just about finding starters.  It's also about finding solid backups.

Here is a good chart to look at

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

[todge]

Great article Rich. In looking at the numbers - it looks like the 10% success rate is probably more from the 5th to 7th Rounds.

Irrespective of the numbers - I don't think we as fans should criticize the Giants for their 3rd day picks not making it. There is plenty of valid criticism to be levied to Ross and his Scouts for their first and second day selections!


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[Bob In PA]

Great article Rich. In looking at the numbers - it looks like the 10% success rate is probably more from the 5th to 7th Rounds.

Irrespective of the numbers - I don't think we as fans should criticize the Giants for their 3rd day picks not making it. There is plenty of valid criticism to be levied to Ross and his Scouts for their first and second day selections!

Ted: Sad, but true. Bob