Everything COVID-19

[umassgrad]

umass:  Aha! You're a teacher.  My dad was also (then he became principle, then superintendent).  My sister still is, and guess what she teaches.... she teaches English to children in China (via Internet).  Bob

Very cool, Bob! My utmost respect to the teachers in your family. One of those things you have to do to really appreciate it. Parents are finding that out now:)
Double thumbs up to your dad for making it to the top of the profession. Those admin jobs are not easy.

[Bob In PA]

Very cool, Bob! My utmost respect to the teachers in your family. One of those things you have to do to really appreciate it. Parents are finding that out now:)
Double thumbs up to your dad for making it to the top of the profession. Those admin jobs are not easy.

umass: .... and he didn't last long in the top job either, retiring shortly thereafter. 

I thought he should avoid the "headaches" of that job, but like a mountain-climber close to the summit, he wanted to go the extra few steps to touch the flag at the top.

And he did his entire career while carrying around a chest full of schrapnel from WWII (the fragments were too small to remove all of them).  He was a good man.

Bob

[umassgrad]

umass: .... and he didn't last long in the top job either, retiring shortly thereafter. 

I thought he should avoid the "headaches" of that job, but like a mountain-climber close to the summit, he wanted to go the extra few steps to touch the flag at the top.

And he did his entire career while carrying around a chest full of schrapnel from WWII (the fragments were too small to remove all of them).  He was a good man.

Bob

Wow! He sounds like quite the guy. My dad has passed as well, a US Marine and Korean war veteran. He was not an educator, worked an office job in NYC. He gave me my love for our New York Giants and thank God he lived long enough to watch the 86 super bowl win!

[Bob In PA]

I just heard that, using the mathematical formula scientists employ to decide if a disease is a "pandemic" covid-19 ceased to be a pandemic about six weeks ago.

I can't find the formula so I can't verify this statement, and I can't find an explanation of it either.

I'd sure like to see what factors are considered in the formula, and (therefore) how they reach the conclusion that a pandemic has ended.

Bob

[Bob In PA]

I just heard that, using the mathematical formula scientists employ to decide if a disease is a "pandemic" covid-19 ceased to be a pandemic about six weeks ago.

I can't find the formula so I can't verify this statement, and I can't find an explanation of it either.

I'd sure like to see what factors are considered in the formula, and (therefore) how they reach the conclusion that a pandemic has ended.

Bob

This post has been sitting for quite a while without a response from anyone. Or doesn't anyone know? That's fine. It wasn't posted as a challenge, but until further notice I believe the pandemic no longer exists.  Bob

[MightyGiants]

until further notice I believe the pandemic no longer exists.  Bob

There is a great post (at least in my opinion) in our archies that discusses fact, opinion and belief

Unlike an opinion, a belief is a conviction based on cultural or personal faith, morality, or values. Statements such as "Capital punishment is legalized murder" are often called "opinions" because they express viewpoints, but they are not based on facts or other evidence. They cannot be disproved or even contested in a rational or logical manner. Since beliefs are inarguable, they cannot serve as the thesis of a formal argument. (Emotional appeals can, of course, be useful if you happen to know that your audience shares those beliefs.)

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php/topic,4488.0.html


In my opinion, one of the most destructive aspects of Trump's rise to power has been the elevation of "belief" to the same level of importance as fact


Oh and for the record, here is the standard definition used by those of us in public health

Occasionally, the amount of disease in a community rises above the expected level. Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area. Outbreak carries the same definition of epidemic, but is often used for a more limited geographic area. Cluster refers to an aggregation of cases grouped in place and time that are suspected to be greater than the number expected, even though the expected number may not be known. Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html

[Bob In PA]

There is a great post (at least in my opinion) in our archives that discusses fact, opinion and belief

Oh and for the record, here is the standard definition used by those of us in public health

Rich: When are "those of us in public health" going to reply to my post?  Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: When are "those of us in public health" going to reply to my post?  Bob

I just did 

[Bob In PA]

I'm repeating this post because no one gave me an answer.  I'm not saying anyone knows the answer.... I sure don't.

I heard that, using the mathematical formula scientists employ to decide if a disease is a "pandemic," the covid-19 crisis ceased to be a pandemic about six weeks ago.

I can't find the formula so I can't verify this statement, and I can't find an explanation of it either.

I'd like to see what factors are considered in the formula, and (therefore) how they reach the conclusion that a pandemic has ended.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

I am not sure where you heard those claims but they are far afield of the truth



Michael Ryan, WHO director for health emergencies, said there is

[Bob In PA]

I am not sure where you heard those claims but they are far afield of the truth

Michael Ryan, WHO director for health emergencies, said there is

[Bob In PA]

Rich: After looking for the third time, I decided it is not too important.  Even if the "pandemic" definition no longer applies to this virus, it would still be an epidemic (at least.... I think that is the next step "down").

Apparently the "formula" is how WHO (and others?) decide when it should take (or not take) certain actions, when to make certain announcements, etc.  I think it's an administrative rather than medical measure.

I hope that is clear enough.  In short, it doesn't tell us when we're "out of the woods" medically.  On the other hand, moving from pandemic status to something lower, even for those purposes, is not a bad thing.

Bob

[LennG]

Don't hold your breath for a coronavirus vaccine. Here are the 7 biggest challenges we still need to overcome.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/don-t-hold-your-breath-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine-here-are-the-7-biggest-challenges-we-still-need-to-overcome/ar-BB17b96U?ocid=msedgdhp

I know we are all waiting for some good news on this front, but read this and it really might not be what we all are expecting.

[MightyGiants]

Rich: After looking for the third time, I decided it is not too important.  Even if the "pandemic" definition no longer applies to this virus, it would still be an epidemic (at least.... I think that is the next step "down").

Apparently the "formula" is how WHO (and others?) decide when it should take (or not take) certain actions, when to make certain announcements, etc.  I think it's an administrative rather than medical measure.

I hope that is clear enough.  In short, it doesn't tell us when we're "out of the woods" medically.  On the other hand, moving from pandemic status to something lower, even for those purposes, is not a bad thing.

Bob

Bob,

A pandemic is an epidemic that is occurring in multiple nations or continents

[Bob In PA]

Here's a case made by a very-well established Yale epidemiologist for use of hydroxychloroquine in combination with certain other medications.

https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535