Everything COVID-19

[Jim143]

Just saw that the city commissioner's office is meeting Wednesday to consider going back to phase 1 - indoor restaurants at 25% capacity, Gyms closed, etc.  We'll see what happens.  Usually, when the city makes a decision, the county follows shorts there after.

[MightyGiants]

Just saw that the city commissioner's office is meeting Wednesday to consider going back to phase 1 - indoor restaurants at 25% capacity, Gyms closed, etc.  We'll see what happens.  Usually, when the city makes a decision, the county follows shorts there after.

Sometimes I forget about a basic weather issue of Florida.  Here in NJ, we have outdoor dining only.    I forget that the heat and humidity in Florida would make that option less practical.   So I guess that's why they go 25%.   The problem with indoor dining is that people need to remove masks to eat and they stay in one place for relatively long periods of time.   I think the key is to think about the virus as a poison.   There is a dose (number of virus particles that will make you sick (we don't know the number but it's thought to be in the hundreds).   I personally believe (and it's not scientifically proven) that the more virus that enters your body the sicker you get.

So when you think about being exposed it's like all poisons which is an equation of time exposed multiplied by the concentration you are exposed to.    So sitting for an hour to enjoy a fine meal without inside is riskier than two maskless people passing each other in a grocery store

[Bob In PA]

Sometimes I forget about a basic weather issue of Florida.  Here in NJ, we have outdoor dining only.    I forget that the heat and humidity in Florida would make that option less practical.   So I guess that's why they go 25%.   The problem with indoor dining is that people need to remove masks to eat and they stay in one place for relatively long periods of time.   I think the key is to think about the virus as a poison.   There is a dose (number of virus particles that will make you sick (we don't know the number but it's thought to be in the hundreds).   I personally believe (and it's not scientifically proven) that the more virus that enters your body the sicker you get.

So when you think about being exposed it's like all poisons which is an equation of time exposed multiplied by the concentration you are exposed to.    So sitting for an hour to enjoy a fine meal without inside is riskier than two maskless people passing each other in a grocery store

Rich: I saw an article making a case (for Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and southern California) that most of the current increases are from proximity to the border and protests.  I have no opinion on the issue now.  Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: I saw an article making a case (for Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and southern California) that most of the current increases are from proximity to the border and protests.  I have no opinion on the issue now.  Bob

The only studies I have seen have not seen spikes from protests.   I think from a common-sense perspective if protests were a significant cause of increased cases, you would expect NY and NJ major hub of protest activity would be seeing surges in cases rather than what we are currently seeing which a generally low level of Covid activity.


As for the proximity to the border, did the article explain how Mexico with its 2,324 cases per million population ended up infecting the US with its 10,324 infected per million?

[umassgrad]

Rich: I saw an article making a case (for Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and southern California) that most of the current increases are from proximity to the border and protests.  I have no opinion on the issue now.  Bob

Bob, I don't agree with Trump's policy/behavior etc... but I do admire your faithful defense of everything he does. This most recent post by you though is disappointing to me because it isn't the type of stuff you would normally post. No link to the article is fine but if you have no opinion on the issue why would throw something like this out there? Today's cultish America is not able to decipher this kind of stuff. I can see it now on Fox News, Is Black Lives Matter responsible for the recent spike of Corona virus cases? Mexico brings criminals, rapists, drugs and now the Corona virus to US border states! By the time the research is done proving this not to be true the damage is already done.

[MightyGiants]

By the time the research is done proving this not to be true the damage is already done.

I think this has been a major problem in the United States for at least the last 2 decades. 

[katkavage]

There has been no spike in NY from the massive protests that took place a month ago. I don't think Minnesota has spiked either. So there really is no correlation.

[Bob In PA]

Bob, I don't agree with Trump's policy/behavior etc... but I do admire your faithful defense of everything he does. This most recent post by you though is disappointing to me because it isn't the type of stuff you would normally post. No link to the article is fine but if you have no opinion on the issue why would throw something like this out there? Today's cultish America is not able to decipher this kind of stuff. I can see it now on Fox News, Is Black Lives Matter responsible for the recent spike of Corona virus cases? Mexico brings criminals, rapists, drugs and now the Corona virus to US border states! By the time the research is done proving this not to be true the damage is already done.

umass: I didn't provide the link because I didn't want to take a position on the contents, but rather just wanted the idea to be put up in case anyone was interested.  Since you asked,

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-atlas-coronavirus-surges-linked-mostly-to-protests-and-proximity-to-us-mexico-border

As for defending the President, I did the same for Obama, and would do so for every President, because as an American, I think it's something I should do (and I'm not alone in this attitude).  This is particularly true, IMO, for issues like the pandemic, which involves a novel microbe.  I have no doubt at that, every governmental level, the people are doing their level best (in a no-win situation) and so I try to minimize or avoid criticism on that issue. It just so happens I just saw an article analyzing Fauci's performance throughout the crisis....  It counters the idea that Fauci can do no wrong.  IMO it's just a reminder that everyone in charge is a real person, not Superman.

https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-seeks-to-undercut-fauci-by-circulating-mistakes-list-2020-7

Bob

[MightyGiants]

umass: I didn't provide the link because I didn't want to take a position on the contents, just wanted it to be put up in case anyone was interested.  Since you asked,

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-atlas-coronavirus-surges-linked-mostly-to-protests-and-proximity-to-us-mexico-border

As for defending the President, I did the same for Obama, and would do so for every President, because as an American, I think it's something I should do and there are others like me.  This is particularly true, IMO, for issues like the pandemic involving a novel microbe.  I have no doubt at every governmental level the people are doing their level best (in a no-win situation) and so try to minimize or avoid criticism on that issue. It just so happens I just saw an article analyzing Fauci's performance throughout the crisis. 

Since you reminded me, though, here's another article about the virus that counters the idea that Fauci can do no wrong.  IMO it's just a reminder that everyone in charge is a real person, not Superman.

https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-seeks-to-undercut-fauci-by-circulating-mistakes-list-2020-7

Bob

This article is a good opportunity to share my vetting process.


First Fox News-  They have historically been more about disseminating propaganda that favors the Republicans than providing anything close to their claims of "fair and balanced"

Doctor Scott Atlas-  His medical credentials are sound and he has the knowledge to speak on the topic.  His employment at a conservative think tank means he may have an agenda beyond the truth (same could be said of liberal think tank employees).


So really you need to get into the way the information is disseminated.    If you notice when I speak on a Covid I try my best (I bet you can find examples where I slipped and didn't follow the rule) to categorize what I say into one of 5 categories:

1) I believe

2) My professional opinion

3) The current scientific thinking

4) The study shows

5) If enough good studies show I state it as fact


You will notice the good doctor never does what I say is the appropriate way to speak when you are dealing with science and medicine


Instead, he uses the word "correlate" that when used in this context would be best considered a "weasel word"   Every claim doctor Atlas makes is based on "correlations" as HE sees them.  When you are dealing with a disease that can take up to 2 weeks to develop after exposure it's difficult, at best, to use correlation as the evidence of a claim.  That is why almost all the legit scientific and medical literature on the topic does not use coloration (or just use) as a tool to better understand the disease.  Plus you always have to consider causation as every proper man of science knows this important phrase, "Correlation is not causation".   Otherwise, one can believe-  "there is a rock in my front yard.   There are no tigers in my yard or my neighborhood.  Therefore the rock keeps tigers away"

[Jim143]

This article is a good opportunity to share my vetting process.


First Fox News-  They have historically been more about disseminating propaganda that favors the Republicans than providing anything close to their claims of "fair and balanced"

Doctor Scott Atlas-  His medical credentials are sound and he has the knowledge to speak on the topic.  His employment at a conservative think tank means he may have an agenda beyond the truth (same could be said of liberal think tank employees).


So really you need to get into the way the information is disseminated.    If you notice when I speak on a Covid I try my best (I bet you can find examples where I slipped and didn't follow the rule) to categorize what I say into one of 5 categories:

1) I believe

2) My professional opinion

3) The current scientific thinking

4) The study shows

5) If enough good studies show I state it as fact


You will notice the good doctor never does what I say is the appropriate way to speak when you are dealing with science and medicine


Instead, he uses the word "correlate" that when used in this context would be best considered a "weasel word"   Every claim doctor Atlas makes is based on "correlations" as HE sees them.  When you are dealing with a disease that can take up to 2 weeks to develop after exposure it's difficult, at best, to use correlation as the evidence of a claim.  That is why almost all the legit scientific and medical literature on the topic does not use coloration (or just use) as a tool to better understand the disease.  Plus you always have to consider causation as every proper man of science knows this important phrase, "Correlation is not causation".   Otherwise, one can believe-  "there is a rock in my front yard.   There are no tigers in my yard or my neighborhood.  Therefore the rock keeps tigers away"

I can validate this rock/tiger theory.  About three years ago, I put landscape timber around my entire house, 3 feet out from the house.  I filled that space with marble chips.  To this date, we had had zero tiger sightings (outside, anyway) and that is equally surprising since we are relatively close to CattyShack (Big cat rescue) and White Oak Conservatory.

[Bob In PA]

The World Health Organization has announced that it will not visit the Wuhan Institute of Virology during its investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, despite the fact that the lab held samples of coronavirus that were almost exactly the same as that which caused a global pandemic.

WHO stated that its mission will only seek to

[jimv]

It's not surprising to me, Bob.  WHO is working hand-in-hand with China on the Chinses coverup.

[MightyGiants]

I am pretty sure that WHO was not created to investigate every right-wing/GOP conspiracy theory.


Not everyone institution (some like FOX "news", sure) was created to serve the GOP's goals to rule American.


WHO was actually created and serves the role of protecting the world's public health. 

Of course, our impeached President has pulled the US out of the World Health Organization in the middle of a deadly pandemic, which will mean more lives lost,  but ask the Ukrainian President there is a big price to pay if  you don't launch investigations into conspiracy theories that would help Trump's Presidential campaign

[Bob In PA]

WHO was actually created and serves the role of protecting the world's public health. 

Rich: They're doing a bang-up job!   Bob

[T200]

Rich: They're doing a bang-up job!   Bob

Is it fair to hold them accountable when countries don't cooperate?