Everything COVID-19

[Jim143]

Before everyone makes a judgement, you may have to wait. There is evidence of massive errors in Florida's reporting. They have discovered that many labs were not reporting any negative results which increases the positive percentage. They are also reporting that a significant number of sites are reporting 100% positive results. The Orlando hospital was being reported as a 98% positive rate when the reality was 9.4%. In addition the Florida death rate is nowhere near what happened in N.Y. nor does it correlate to the positive % being reported. This will come out in the next few days with the Governor possibly discussing today.

I can confirm that with what my wife told me on Saturday.  They are not required to report negatives.  They are required to report positives.

[MightyGiants]

That's what i mean, you always look at it from a point of view you already have. It's almost as if you hope it's bad to prove your point. If the rate is lower than being reported and people are not dying due to what you stated and other things, that's good isn't it?  I don't view this as a contest. I hope someone gets an answer soon and I don't care who it is.

I was looking at Florida's death rates.   You can see them here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The individual day bar chart is a bit ragged (indicating that deaths are likely not reported immediately so they can be over and under-reported on a given day).   So what I did was check the 7-day rolling average option to get a better feel for things   What you see is a peak in early May.   After that, there was a small decline for a little bit and then started rising around the end of June.

I can confirm that with what my wife told me on Saturday.  They are not required to report negatives.  They are required to report positives.

If you know how many tests were done and the positives you have all the information you need mathematically speaking

[FL GMAN]

All the information is not being reported which is why they are investigating. If what you said were true we wouldn't have locations with a 100% infection rate. I don't know the requirements but I heard on the news this morning that they were required to report negatives. I also think you overlooked the largest determining factor in the death rate which is the different treatment of Nursing Home residents in the 2 states.

[MightyGiants]

All the information is not being reported which is why they are investigating. If what you said were true we wouldn't have locations with a 100% infection rate. I don't know the requirements but I heard on the news this morning that they were required to report negatives. I also think you overlooked the largest determining factor in the death rate which is the different treatment of Nursing Home residents in the 2 states.

I dug into this and I see what you are saying.   As Jim mentioned, some places are only reporting positive tests to the state which creates wildly high "percent positive" numbers.   

The percent positive of people tested is an important number and skewed numbers will not help properly monitor what is going on.


Still, those skewed percentages would not affect the total number of positive cases in any way.  In other words, new case numbers and total case numbers are valid regardless of the reporting issues skewing percent positive rates of people tested.


I also know that over the weekend Jim reported back what sounded like reasonable percent positive rates that his wife was aware of




As for nursing homes, they enjoyed a lot more time to get ready and were able to take advantage of lessons learned (and more PPE and better treatments) from what NY and NJ had to go through. 

[Jim143]

I was looking at Florida's death rates.   You can see them here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The individual day bar chart is a bit ragged (indicating that deaths are likely not reported immediately so they can be over and under-reported on a given day).   So what I did was check the 7-day rolling average option to get a better feel for things   What you see is a peak in early May.   After that, there was a small decline for a little bit and then started rising around the end of June.


If you know how many tests were done and the positives you have all the information you need mathematically speaking

Problem with that is - all she sees are the results (mixed in with tests for other diseases her department is responsible for) - she doesn't see the total numbers

[LennG]

"The World Health Organization (WHO) was founded in 1948 as a special agency of the United Nations. With nearly two hundred member countries, the agency implements worldwide programs to prevent and eliminate disease. But the WHO

[MightyGiants]

Good Post Len (I didn't quote it as it's too long),  do you know what is ironic?  Many of the same people who are attacking WHO because they say they were too deferential to China seem to have completely forgotten that their man Donald Trump was praising China for its good handling and transparency at the very same time.




Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

[Bob In PA]

"The World Health Organization (WHO) was founded in 1948 as a special agency of the United Nations. With nearly two hundred member countries, the agency implements worldwide programs to prevent and eliminate disease. But the WHO

[MightyGiants]

Rich: That seems about right, but I must ask.... is there no chance some states intentionally opened up slower by implementing more precautions than the guidelines suggested were necessary?  No need to answer that. I mention it only to point out that there is another side of the story.  If some states DID go slower, good for them.  If some went faster, it was because they believed it was in the best interest of their residents to do so.  The response to a public health crisis should not be determined in a vacuum that considers ONLY one type of "health."  That's why each state has a chief executive... to determine the over-all "best" solution.  It's not a clear-cut "science only" proposition, and again that is why I refuse to criticize any of them. Bob

Erroring on the side of safety is usually considered a reasonable choice, whiling erroring on the side of danger usually isn't


Here is a comment by VP Mike Pence at a roundtable for reopening of higher education that I found troubling from a public health perspective

But let me say, as the director of CDC said not long ago, we don

[LennG]

Lenn: A really nice job.  Bob

You know Bob, I like you--even if you are a Republican.     

[Bob In PA]

You know Bob, I like you--even if you are a Republican.     

Lenn: As I have sought to emphasize, I have never been a member of any political party, nor have I ever given money to any party or candidate. Bob

[jimv]

Lenn: As I have sought to emphasize, I have never been a member of any political party, nor have I ever given money to any party or candidate. Bob

C'mon, Lenny; I'm the Republican around here!

[MightyGiants]

Sometimes, you don't need to say it directly

[MightyGiants]

Many American public-health specialists are at risk of burning out as the coronavirus surges back.

ED YONG
JULY 7, 2020

It's an excellent read


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/pandemic-experts-are-not-okay/613879/?fbclid=IwAR2CGtNbCOLAgzfbLTRsYwyoPJPBfIJEfF1OKiQy_KaSY5yYf17Z5AgkpZk

[Jim143]

Yes, they have been "ordered" to be open 5 days a week, full class load, etc.  But Miami, Broward, Duval and a few other larger counties are bucking that order and are opening up half with half virtual