More On the Lab Leak Hypothesis

[Bob In PA]

pursuing all possibilities without bias is good is just good science.

The right/GOP making political hay because their favorite theory hasn't been disproven is literally no better than the Chinese government who is doing the exact same thing and making political hay because their favorite theory that the virus was imported into China via frozen/refrigerated foods hasn't been disproven either.

Rich: In case you missed this (I have a subscription to The Washington Post on-line site) here is the Glenn Kessler (their official fact-checker) time-line for the issue being covered in this thread.  I hate to post the whole thing (and I will edit out the stuff not in the actual time-line which relates to politicians) but most of you would otherwise run into the pay-wall and not be able to see it.  The actual time-line has not been edited so it does contain references to politicians (to set up the scientific responses).

Below is the link for those who have a paid subscription, and below that is the time-line.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/

The source of the coronavirus that has left more than 3 million people dead around the world remains a mystery. But in recent months the idea that it emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)

[jimmyz]

Nice summary Bob.

[MightyGiants]

A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 


Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain 

[Woody]

The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

[MightyGiants]

The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

[bldevil]

The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

[bldevil]

A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 


Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain 

Do you think the head of the WHO has Republican/right-leaning tendencies?   I think you're reading political motivations into the discussion.  The dissent on this issue seems to transcend political affiliations.

[MightyGiants]

I think this issue of the border--whatever your take on it-- is a non-sequitur in terms of the thread of this topic.

What I think is the multiple threads over hyping a remote possibility is motived purely by politics.   You know I admire the cunning of Jimmy and Bob, this topic is the perfect distraction from the real issues like the criminally negligent handling of the Covid crisis by a former President and the shameful behavior of so many Republicans and Conservatives who refused to wear masks, refused to help contain the spread of the virus, denying the virus was dangerous, refused to social distance and now refuse to get vaccinated.   At the start of this crisis, I said we should all act in a manner that people would point as to say, "there is a man/woman I want in my foxhole".  Instead, the majority of them are people I wouldn't want anywhere near my foxhole as they were more pro-Covid than anything.  They were just so self-centered and self-absorbed and unwilling to make any sort of sacrifice for the good of their country or neighborhood or even their family.

Still, the real genius of this over-hyping stunt is that it produces zero blowback when (or if) the cause is found and it turns out it came from nature (which is by far the most likely outcome).  Bob and Jimmy (and those just like them) will simply shrug their shoulders and say, "well it was a theory and we investigated, I didn't say or do anything wrong".  Still, the distraction from real issues and the demonization of China goals will still have been served regardless of the ultimate findings.

You know one thing I kind of like about Trump is that wile he is a pathological liar, he doesn't do subtle.   He has a tendency to say the implied part or the silent subtext part out loud.    So it was no shock to hear this:

Former President Donald Trump claimed in an interview Tuesday that

[bldevil]

I think we can discuss this issue without getting into the politics, albeit that is hard.

For example, I do not think investigating this issue is a right-wing publicity stunt.  It could have been a publicity stunt, I agree with you on that.

You made comments on Trump (criminally negligent) and I don't think that is germane to the point under discussion.  (As an aside, I think Trump is an idiot who routinely says stupid stuff, a lot of it seemingly on purpose.). A broken clock can still be right twice a day, and Trump may have been right on this one.  As far as Trump goes, if he does turn out to be correct on this one, it just raises his abysmal speculation-driven batting average a couple of points.  So let's discard Trump...I hope...from the discussion. It's not about him.

What about the head of the WHO? Does he have a right-wing political agenda?  Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

[Bob In PA]

A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 

Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain 

Rich: IMO, you are making two fundamental mistakes in your approach to (and analysis of) this topic.  The first one is in this post, the second will be in a second post below it.

These are not major errors, but just quibbles.

Mistake #1: Your commentary above is correct, except that IMO you should just "leave it lay" where it is instead of trying to pile onto it a political point.  In other words, yes, both factions you mentioned have over-hyped.  But that should be the end of it.  I think both sides here would agree to that, and that should be sufficient.  The issue is unsettled.  Both sides are pushing hard for their respective views, but THEIR VIEWS are not what is important, so don't give them any more importance than they deserve (which is IMO to simply acknowledge their existence).  It is the views of the scientific experts (who have yet to reach a conclusion or a consensus) that are important.  At this point, we just wait for them all to re-examine the situation and tell us what they believe.

Bob

[Bob In PA]

This is Donald Trump pretty much going to the heart of what Jimmy and Bob were trying to accomplish with their politically motivated scheme.

Still I am a very small minority.  I have little doubt this stunt will hurt our nation as so many of the other stunts (like the one that caused the January 6th attack) have done.

Rich: Mistake #2: IMO, you are allowing the fact that Trump is involved on one side of the unresolved issue to cause you to over-react. 

What difference does it make what Trump thinks?  Who cares which side is proven correct.  You and I know Trump (like many people) is merely taking a guess. 

He may have access to a few intel reports we don't know about, so we tip our hat to that fact and move on.  I don't think it advances the discussion to over-blow the issue.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

I think we can discuss this issue without getting into the politics, albeit that is hard.

For example, I do not think investigating this issue is a right-wing publicity stunt.  It could have been a publicity stunt, I agree with you on that.

You made comments on Trump (criminally negligent) and I don't think that is germane to the point under discussion.  (As an aside, I think Trump is an idiot who routinely says stupid stuff, a lot of it seemingly on purpose.). A broken clock can still be right twice a day, and Trump may have been right on this one.  As far as Trump goes, if he does turn out to be correct on this one, it just raises his abysmal speculation-driven batting average a couple of points.  So let's discard Trump...I hope...from the discussion. It's not about him.

What about the head of the WHO? Does he have a right-wing political agenda?  Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

B-Devil,

Factually speaking we have been investigating the possibility since the beginning.  The political stunt is that we have two threads devoted to talking about it.   Not just devoted to talking about it but there has been the creation of a false narrative that something has changed that has made this possibility more probable (or as Donald Trump and other say, "it happened this way")

The fact is nothing has changed.   There was a report produced from WHO that has said based on their preliminary study it's highly unlikely.  That's a report neither Jimmy nor Bob ever posted because the right-wing media driving the false narrative doesn't want to take about it.   There have been some in the scientific community who don't agree with the report's assessment and want more study.

I mean even you are claiming "Trump may have been right".    Here's the thing he was wrong, even if what he claimed turns out to have happened.   You don't accuse others of wrongdoing without any proof and that is what Trump did and despite 4 years of that immoral/unethical behavior being normalized (with the help of the right-wing media), it's still a bad thing to do.   That is wrong it's a horrible thing to do and even if the accusations are proven to be true, it's still an immoral act.

There is a difference between accusation and exploring all possibilities no matter how the odds favor any given possibility.     Accusations and implied accusations are a weapon.    Investigations are a way to the truth.  It's not an accident that these two very different (both morally and factual) actions have been so badly conflated. 

Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

Can you explain WHY they felt the need to write a letter literally demanding exactly what the head of WHO said they were planning on doing?  He said he planned on more investigation (what the band of 18 demanded)

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Mistake #2: IMO, you are allowing the fact that Trump is involved on one side of the unresolved issue to cause you to over-react. 

What difference does it make what Trump thinks?  Who cares which side is proven correct.  You and I know Trump (like many people) is merely taking a guess. 

He may have access to a few intel reports we don't know about, so we tip our hat to that fact and move on.  I don't think it advances the discussion to over-blow the issue.

Bob

I will give you credit, you did a pretty good job dressing it up, but when you go to the heart of your point, this is just another "he has Trump derrangement syndrome" defense.

[Bob In PA]

I will give you credit, you did a pretty good job dressing it up, but when you go to the heart of your point, this is just another "he has Trump derrangement syndrome" defense.

Rich: I see why you say that but... not quite... rather, I think you foresee potential political repercussions if the lab theory is proven. There could be repercussions for one or both sides no matter what happens next.

But IMO anyone who would use convincing proof of either theory as a club against the other side (unless it is shown there was intentional misconduct) will try to use that club even in the absence of conclusive proof.

Conversely, there is a lot of good that could come out of this... if the lab theory is proven correct, then important and significant enhanced safety changes will be made in all labs worldwide, and that is a good thing. 

If the animal-jump theory is proven correct, our knowledge of that aspect of microbiology and other connected sciences will be enhanced greatly (especially so because this truly is/was a novel virus).

But I see no positives forthcoming if we do not conduct a full investigate of the events and circumstances (like a 9/11 commission.... that seems to be the "buzz-word-of-the-month in Washington these days LOL).

Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: I see why you say that but... not quite... rather, I think you foresee potential political repercussions if the lab theory is proven. There could be repercussions for one or both sides no matter what happens next.

But IMO anyone who would use convincing proof of either theory as a club against the other side (unless it is shown there was intentional misconduct) will try to use that club even in the absence of conclusive proof.

Conversely, there is a lot of good that could come out of this... if the lab theory is proven correct, then important and significant enhanced safety changes will be made in all labs worldwide, and that is a good thing. 

If the animal-jump theory is proven correct, our knowledge of that aspect of microbiology and other connected sciences will be enhanced greatly (especially so because this truly is/was a novel virus).

But I see no positives forthcoming if we do not conduct a full investigate of the events and circumstances (like a 9/11 commission.... that seems to be the "buzz-word-of-the-month in Washington these days LOL).

Bob

Bob,

The conversation that has been generated by the right (and even propagated by the mainstream media) is already serving the purposes of the right regardless of the eventual findings as you pointed out.  The right is already (and I have provided multiple quotes to prove just that) are misrepresenting science's rigid system of seeking the truth as proof that their unfounded accusations were right all along. 


As to the virus being "novel" we already had the "novel" coronavirus commonly known as SARS and the "novel" coronavirus known as MERS (both of those came from animals).   Both of those coronaviruses were actually far more deadly.     It's sort of ironic, but Covid managed to kill so many more people by virtue of being less deadly.    Had it been more like SARS or MERS it would have laid up all those that Covid infected which would have greatly reduced the spread.   The feature of Covid that allowed it to kill so many was to be LESS deadly (to the point of not even producing symptoms) allowed it to quickly spread around the entire globe. 

Novel means new and unique, new viruses occur frequently and they are all given that label.   

Since almost all of these viruses are zoonotic in origin, there will be little learned (beyond satisfying scientific curiosity) in learning which animal it came from (unless it was an unusual interaction with an animal)