More On the Lab Leak Hypothesis

[katkavage]

kat: Good one. The truth will come out. I don't know what it might be, but IMO this is a matter of great significance to all of humanity... so IMO we must persevere until there are definitive answers.  Bob

Yes it is, but for now we just have to wait for real answers, stop slinging mud around, and find out the truth.

[MightyGiants]

kat: Good one. The truth will come out. I don't know what it might be, but IMO this is a matter of great significance to all of humanity... so IMO we must persevere until there are definitive answers.  Bob

"a matter of great significance to all of humanity"   

There are three likely outcomes

1)  The source is never determined.  Being able to definitively trace the origin of a disease requires a bit of luck and not every disease has its source definitively identified.

2)  The source is traced back to zoonotic origins which will nice to know but likely will produce no actionable information.  Rather it will satisfy scientific curiosity.

3)  It's traced back to a lab accident.    It's unlikely humans will stop investigating diseases as outbreaks have and will continue to happen (likely with increasing frequency).   It would be helpful in terms of identifying areas to improve lab safety.  Certainly helpful


None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Now if you look at this issue through a political lens...

[jimmyz]

Yes it is, but for now we just have to wait for real answers, stop slinging mud around, and find out the truth.

A stark contrast in opinion from last year when the notion of even questioning the origins were being shut down, an answer was provided instantly, mud was slung and the truth was whatever Daszak said it was.

[MightyGiants]

I thought Covid and its origins were a diabolical plot cooked up by Fauci and aided by CNN to cover up for China so they could rake in billions on PPE and ratings for CNN. In fact, it might have been Dr. Evil who unleashed the virus on the world  using the not to be trusted Chinese as his own cover. Where is Austin Powers to solve this crime???

According to Jimmy and Bob these theories have not been disproven so they have to be considered valid and just as likely as any other.   

[jimmyz]

"a matter of great significance to all of humanity"   

There are three likely outcomes

1)  The source is never determined.  Being able to definitively trace the origin of a disease requires a bit of luck and not every disease has its source definitively identified.

2)  The source is traced back to zoonotic origins which will nice to know but likely will produce no actionable information.  Rather it will satisfy scientific curiosity.

3)  It's traced back to a lab accident.    It's unlikely humans will stop investigating diseases as outbreaks have and will continue to happen (likely with increasing frequency).   It would be helpful in terms of identifying areas to improve lab safety.  Certainly helpful


None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Now if you look at this issue through a political lens...

And in the event its option #3, its the one area where, as a policy, the people who fund the research can impose stricter controls on processes; something that was not done up til now.

[MightyGiants]

And in the event its option #3, its the one area where, as a policy, the people who fund the research can impose stricter controls on processes; something that was not done up til now.

If this is not more political bull crap, I am sure  you can explain in some detail the current controls and where you feel they are lacking

[MightyGiants]

In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.


Bob

Bob,

One side has always supported science and followed the science.  The other side liked science when it was helping us win the cold war, now that the cold war is over the other side has no use for science.  We see that with Climate change.  We witnessed that with Covid.


You're right though, it a sad day for the US and humanity that one side of our nation's political spectrum has become so anti-science and has substituted their politics for science and the scientific method.

Look at climate change.  As I said early, science is about examining all the facts and reaching conclusions.   Yet despite less than 10% of qualified climate scientists questioning the conclusions of the overwhelming majority, you have only posted articles questioning or disputing climate change. 

I mean when I see you and Jimmy playing these political games with science, I am reminded of the old Dentyne  Gum commercials where they talked about "4 out of 5 dentists recommend sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum".    I could see you and Jimmy and others that share your political views saying (if that was on today) "Woah!  Woah!   We need to hear out that 5th dentists I think he is the guy who nailed it"

As for your point about Covid being political, that was true the moment Trump and his political allies declared Covid a Democratic hoax designed to scare people.

Or do you forget what one elected Republican official did in the halls of Congress to mock the Covid concerns of everyone not listening to Trump and Fox News?



Nor have the elected Republican officials learned from their past mistakes




Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸
@mtgreenee
Vaccinated employees get a vaccination logo just like the Nazi

[Bob In PA]

None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Rich: Are you suggesting (in writing, with your identity attached to the post) that determining the origins of a disease that killed millions of people is not a matter of great significance to all of humanity? Bob

[Bob In PA]

Time to keep make the Front Porch a politics free zone.

Rich: For a guy who wrote the line above, you sure do have a lot to say about these issues.  LOL

[Bob In PA]

Time to keep make the Front Porch a politics free zone.

Rich: If this particular COVID thread is deemed "political" then IMO all other COVID threads posted on the Front Porch must be political also (and therefore banned).

I don't see how to distinguish one COVID thread from another; I can post a reply mentioning conservatives, liberals, R's or D's & then say the original topic was political because it invited such a response.

If anyone can tell me how to decide which COVID threads are political and which are not, please fill me in and I'll gladly follow those guidelines.

In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.

The origins of the virus are a global, humanitarian issue.  Determining which politicians or scientists were CORRECT or INCORRECT a year ago (or today) is IMO of utterly no importance.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Are you suggesting (in writing, with your identity attached to the post) that determining the origins of a disease that killed millions of people is not a matter of great significance to all of humanity? Bob

Significant discoveries lead to the improvement of the lives of humanity.    One out of the three possible outcomes leads to a marginal improvement.   I say marginal because I have watched many seasons of Airline disasters.   Despite the FAA and similar organizations around the world doing a great job of analyzing the cause of aircraft accidents and making corrective recommendations, they will never eliminate preventable accidents no matter how many changes are enacted.

If a lab accident turns out to be the cause, similar to successful crash investigations, change/improvement recommendations will be made but they will unlikely to significantly impact humanity.   Hell when you consider all the years of germ warfare research along with all the years of disease study, the frequency of lab accidents (assuming this one beats the odds and turns out to be a lab accident) are exceedingly rare.   So the impact even if a major flaw (if there was an accident, it was likely the failure of multiple systems/procedures) is discovered and corrected will be minimal. 

[Bob In PA]

Significant discoveries lead to the improvement of the lives of humanity.    One out of the three possible outcomes leads to a marginal improvement.   I say marginal because I have watched many seasons of Airline disasters.   Despite the FAA and similar organizations around the world doing a great job of analyzing the cause of aircraft accidents, they will never eliminate them no matter how many changes are enacted.

If a lab accident turns out to be the cause, similar to successful crash investigations, change/improvement recommendations will be made but they will unlikely to significantly impact humanity.   Hell when you consider all the years of germ warfare research along with all the years of disease study, the frequency of lab accidents (assuming this one beats the odds and turns out to be a lab accident) are exceedingly rare.   So the impact even if a major flaw (if there was an accident, it was likely the failure of multiple systems/procedures) is discovered and corrected will be minimal.

Rich: I've got to credit a solid response when I see one. You didn't convince me, but it was well-thought-out and impressed the heck out of me.

There are certainly more important matters, viewing things in the long term, but never forget: (1) the "wrong" virus could at least theoretically extinguish all human life very quickly (thankfully, this one wasn't it); and (2) we were "lucky" (in a sense) to find and make available effective vaccines as rapidly as we did... or the end result of even this particular version of COVID might have been many magnitudes worse that it may turn out to be.

In any event, I'll be sure to make a copy of your response and include some version of it in my reply to your next thread about global warming.

Bob

[jimmyz]

Rich: If this particular COVID thread is deemed "political" then IMO all other COVID threads posted on the Front Porch must be political also (and therefore banned).

I don't see how to distinguish one COVID thread from another; I can post a reply mentioning conservatives, liberals, R's or D's & then say the original topic was political because it invited such a response.

If anyone can tell me how to decide which COVID threads are political and which are not, please fill me in and I'll gladly follow those guidelines.

In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.

The origins of the virus are a global, humanitarian issue.  Determining which politicians or scientists were CORRECT or INCORRECT a year ago (or today) is IMO of utterly no importance.

Bob

It can be hard to detangle covid from politics.  The NYT and WaPo both now claim that their opposition to the lab leak theory was Trump's and Pompeo's fault for not disclosing those intelligence reports basically claiming they had no choice but to call it BS. 


Meanwhile:

[bldevil]

I seem to be the kiss-of-death for this topic...hope I don't kill this thread a 2nd time.

Back to the science...

What about the furin cleavage site?  The junction between the S1 and S2 proteins appears to have been man-made.  Nobel-prize winning biologist David Baltimore called the furin cleavage site a "smoking gun" that the virus was man-made.  Is this not enough evidence to at least warrant an investigation?

Now, what can be done if the lab-leak hypothesis proves true?  First, if the gain-of-function research led to the lab-release (and admittedly there is only circumstantial evidence for lab-release at the moment) then there are some obvious changes that need to be made.  First, the BLS safety rating of such research needs to be increased.  Dr. Shi's lab was--according to her own published work--operating on coronaviruses at BLS2 and BLS3.  (Interestingly, the only pictures of Dr. Shi being released right now to the press show her in a space suit, i.e. BLS4 equipment.)

Second, other questions abound.  What other mutations of SARS2 did the WIV find? Where are they now? Have they been destroyed? Is gain of function research still ongoing? 

A full investigation means that the records of experiments need to be available to the investigative team.  Researchers have been denied access to these records.

Finally, I sent the Nicholas Wade article to a friend of mine (Ph.D. in analytic chemistry, 30+ years in the biological imaging industry) and he found the article to be sufficient evidence to warrant further investigation.  Here is Wade's article, fyi.

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

I'm also going to ping two other microbiologist Ph.D. friends with the same.  I'll report back what they say. 

[MightyGiants]

Rich: I've got to credit a solid response when I see one. You didn't convince me, but it was well-thought-out and impressed the heck out of me.

There are certainly more important matters, viewing things in the long term, but never forget: (1) the "wrong" virus could at least theoretically extinguish all human life very quickly (thankfully, this one wasn't it); and (2) we were "lucky" (in a sense) to find and make available an effective vaccines as rapidly as we did... or the end result of even this particular version of COVID might have been many magnitudes worse that it may turn out to be.

In any event, I'll be sure to make a copy of your response and include some version of it in my reply to your next thread about global warming.

Bob

Bob,

Factually speaking the "wrong virus" can already exist in nature or nature will eventually create it.   The whole point of this virus research is to prevent the "wrong virus" from wiping out humanity.   There is a lot of false and bad politically motivated claims about viruses being created or engineered in this lab. Factually speaking, there is nothing to support those claims.  They were studying Covid viruses that they found in nature (mostly from bats) to help learn more about it.   


That's not to say there are not labs around the world that tinker with viruses to see what sort of mutations can cause what sort of harm (called gain-of-function research).   The creation of virus mutations to help better prepare for a future pandemic is controversial, with good reason.    There are serious questions if the benefits derived (in terms of what we learn about these man-made mutations and how it helps mankind prepare for a future pandemic) have to be weighed against the odds of an accidental release of these manmade viruses.   

In many ways that particular debate reminds me of the debate over nuclear power.   

It can be hard to detangle covid from politics.  The NYT and WaPo both now claim that their opposition to the lab leak theory was Trump's and Pompeo's fault for not disclosing those intelligence reports basically claiming they had no choice but to call it BS. 

Bob,

Still want to claim that this thread isn't just JimmyZ regurgitating what he learned on FOX News?