What long-term societal and business changes do you see coming from Covid

[MightyGiants]

The pandemic was the sort of worldwide impactful event that can trigger societal changes.   In some ways, it is similar to WW2 in its impact.   Think about the lasting changes from WW2.   

Think about changes from WW 2

The end of European colonialism

In the US women found a place in the workforce (that would only grow)

The US enjoyed a decade of economic prosperity

Many men got college education through the GI bill

The UN was founded

There was a post-war baby boom


So what sort of changes do you see happening as a result of this pandemic?

[Ed Vette]

I see some permanent work from home positions and in some jobs reduced office trips.

I see companies downsizing office space.

I see an increase in population to suburbs resulting in more affordable housing in NJ as a result of the trend and the Mt. Laurel decisions.

I see outdoor dining as here to stay. People like it.

I see drugs getting through the FDA process much faster as more get fast tracking. It traditionally took 10 years and over a Billion Dollars to get a new drug to market and there has been a lot of shenanigans going on, especially in the Biotech industry where companies just ran out of funds.

I see an increase in the development and use of Robotics replacing humans.

Some jobs were destined to go away but Covid expedited that exit.

Manufacturing and transportation will be reinvented. The lag in production and delivery has had a huge impact on many industries such as Auto and Construction. Prices have risen and supplies have been short. Lumber, Beef, Semi-Conductors.

I see us all carrying an medical ID of some type.

[MightyGiants]

Ed,

To your point about faster drug development, the messenger RNA technology used by Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna had been researched for decades.  Over the last couple of years, they even were testing the technology for a few vaccines (Rabies, Zika, and Influenza).   Only the drug companies didn't really see an advantage in this new technology (especially with the need to implement a special cold storage infrastructure). So the technology was sort of languishing (remember drug companies are profit-driven and vaccines were never a big moneymaker). 

The whole thing about messenger RNA is that it can be developed nearly overnight (just pick out the part of the virus RNA you want to target).   The Chinese shared the Covid RNA with the world very quickly after the disease was identified.  So drug companies very early in this pandemic had developed a working vaccine.  Pretty much all the "delay" (sort of an odd word to use when you consider how quickly it was developed) was due to the need for testing for safety and efficacy. 

Now that the messenger RNA technology has been proven, we now have what essentially is a major medical breakthrough.  One that will lead to new and quicker development of vaccines and other drugs that can treat diseases.    It's pretty exciting stuff really

[MightyGiants]

I wonder how much the work from home will hold up over time.   I think that it may be more impactful for business travel, but again it will be interesting to see how well it holds up over time.   

Still, this will have a lot of impact beyond work

bigger homes?

less travel?

impact eateries that count of business from workers?

cars and mass transit?

dry cleaners?

clothing sales, especially nicer business-type clothes?

[MightyGiants]

With some major movies going straight to streaming, I wonder what the long term effect on the movie industry will be

[jimmyz]

With some major movies going straight to streaming, I wonder what the long term effect on the movie industry will be

I'd be real curious to know if Hollywood films that have gone straight to streaming were as profitable as the movie theater distribution business model.  Wherever there is more money will dictate whether the change is permanent or if we go back to the movies.

[katkavage]

Right now I see more cars on the road than I've ever seen before. Here in the NYC metro area it is not sustainable. Hopefully the numbskulls in Washington will get their sheet together and starting working on bridges, tunnels and most importantly improving this country's truly pathetic rail system.

[LennG]

I see peop[le becoming more aware of their health.

People will want to travel more and prices will skyrocket as these people don't care about cost, just get them on the road.

I don't know how long this housing boom will go on, but the suburbs are experiencing a tremendous appeal and the price of housing there is going thru the roof. People just want to flee the big city and I see this trend continuing for the foreseeable future.

Streaming services are increasing and broadcast TV will keep going down.

Look at NYC, NO MORE SNOW DAYS EVER, now that virtual school is here.

[MightyGiants]

Right now I see more cars on the road than I've ever seen before. Here in the NYC metro area it is not sustainable. Hopefully the numbskulls in Washington will get their sheet together and starting working on bridges, tunnels and most importantly improving this country's truly pathetic rail system.

Kat,

I can tell you here in NJ some bus lines to NYC shut down and they haven't opened back up.  Mass transit ridership is still down.   Companies are bringing more and more people back into the office but no one is using mass transit.   It always amazes me how people get pissed when they spend money on mass transit because they take the selfish view that they should do that because they drive.  Only they don't understand that without mass transit the roads get packed beyond reason.

[MightyGiants]

I see peop[le becoming more aware of their health.

People will want to travel more and prices will skyrocket as these people don't care about cost, just get them on the road.

I don't know how long this housing boom will go on, but the suburbs are experiencing a tremendous appeal and the price of housing there is going thru the roof. People just want to flee the big city and I see this trend continuing for the foreseeable future.

Streaming services are increasing and broadcast TV will keep going down.

Look at NYC, NO MORE SNOW DAYS EVER, now that virtual school is here.

I wonder if sick days will change and become more work from home days.  I suspect that over time companies will push to get more and more of their workforce back into their offices

[DaveBrown74]

I think hygiene, respect of others' personal space, and just general awareness of health-related matters will exist at a permanent higher level than they did before. I think people in general (not all, but many) will be much more conscientious about this stuff moving forward. This is probably obvious, but nobody else mentioned it so I thought I'd just throw it in. I think the days of snickering at people for being germ-phobes are probably largely over, with the exception of with people who have been covid-deniers this whole time and who have been contemptuous about any sorts of safety measures. Those folks of course won't be any more conscientious in the future than they were before covid. In fact some might even be less so, just to try to make their point.

I think work-related travel will not just decline, but collapse. Very few people I know ever really liked business travel in the first place. It's a major pain in the neck, it's expensive, and it's overrated. I think companies now understand this and will really consolidate a lot of their employees' business travel and also eliminate a good part of it. And with the growing intensity of focus on environmental concerns, decreasing one's carbon footprint is the natural direction of things right now anyway.

Work from home is an interesting one. It really depends on the work. Some tech companies have told employees that they can work from home forever if they want to. Banks on the other hand have been much less comfortable allowing it and have made it clear in the past couple of months that they want people back in the office. I suspect most office type jobs will offer at least partial WFH plans for employees. I think it's tough to tell anyone who is part of any sort of team environment that they never have to be in the office, but partial/rotational WFH arrangements at the very least seem likely to be permanent at most companies.

[MightyGiants]

I think hygiene, respect of others' personal space, and just general awareness of health-related matters will exist at a permanent higher level than they did before. I think people in general (not all, but many) will be much more conscientious about this stuff moving forward. This is probably obvious, but nobody else mentioned it so I thought I'd just throw it in. I think the days of snickering at people for being germ-phobes are probably largely over, with the exception of with people who have been covid-deniers this whole time and who have been contemptuous about any sorts of safety measures. Those folks of course won't be any more conscientious in the future than they were before covid. In fact some might even be less so, just to try to make their point.

I think work-related travel will not just decline, but collapse. Very few people I know ever really liked business travel in the first place. It's a major pain in the neck, it's expensive, and it's overrated. I think companies now understand this and will really consolidate a lot of their employees' business travel and also eliminate a good part of it. And with the growing intensity of focus on environmental concerns, decreasing one's carbon footprint is the natural direction of things right now anyway.

Work from home is an interesting one. It really depends on the work. Some tech companies have told employees that they can work from home forever if they want to. Banks on the other hand have been much less comfortable allowing it and have made it clear in the past couple of months that they want people back in the office. I suspect most office type jobs will offer at least partial WFH plans for employees. I think it's tough to tell anyone who is part of any sort of team environment that they never have to be in the office, but partial/rotational WFH arrangements at the very least seem likely to be permanent at most companies.

If business travel falls hotels, restaurants, and airlines will suffer

To your other point, I think the days of coming into the office when you're sick are gone forever. 

[bldevil]

There is a tendency, in my opinion, to over-extrapolate today's news into the future.  The underlying economics for business travel have certainly changed somewhat, but are still there.  If you can get an edge over your competitor because your salespeople travel to see your customers and your competitors don't, then you can guarantee that the travel will occur. 

That said, the required investment most of us made in remote skills development wouldn't have happened without covid.  So the fact that people are more technically proficient at remote meetings means there will definitely be less travel.  But how much less?

Business people have always hated travel.  So I don't agree with the idea that there's been a great awakening "Hey, we don't have to travel anymore!" has occurred.  I was doing video calls in the 90s.  People always knew that the technology was there but chose not to use it. 

I believe the recent research is that remote work has lower productivity.  But I'd need to find the citation to say for sure.

[MightyGiants]

There is a tendency, in my opinion, to over-extrapolate today's news into the future.  The underlying economics for business travel have certainly changed somewhat, but are still there.  If you can get an edge over your competitor because your salespeople travel to see your customers and your competitors don't, then you can guarantee that the travel will occur. 

That said, the required investment most of us made in remote skills development wouldn't have happened without covid.  So the fact that people are more technically proficient at remote meetings means there will definitely be less travel.  But how much less?

Business people have always hated travel.  So I don't agree with the idea that there's been a great awakening "Hey, we don't have to travel anymore!" has occurred.  I was doing video calls in the 90s.  People always knew that the technology was there but chose not to use it. 

I believe the recent research is that remote work has lower productivity.  But I'd need to find the citation to say for sure.

I agree, sales travel will likely still happen.  On the other hand, inter-business travel may be gone to a large extent.  As you said, remote meetings were always there.  What I see is that there is a learning curve involved in remote meetings and thanks to Covid, that learning curve has been overcome.  I think video conference-type meetings were best for meetings that involve a few speakers and an audience, with the speakers doing much of the talking.   For those types of meetings, remote works very well.    I don't think meetings where all the attendees are interacting work as well via video.  In some cases they can work, especially with smaller groups, but I could see a more of a preference for in person. 

I also could see a hybrid with some meetings video and and a few in-person mixed in.