Covid Vaccines, Covid, and the Delta variant- a primer

[MightyGiants]

I have seen a lot of confusion and misunderstanding about the virus and the vaccine.    I am going to offer up my take and understanding based on my background, my studies, and from reports, I have seen.   I will qualify that we are still learning about this topic so some of what I say isn't supported fully by definitive study, but I still feel confident that it will be proven to be the case.

Now first of we need to consider the nature of a virus.   A virus is a pseudo-life-form, a particle.   Its purpose is to find hosts it can infect and reproduce itself (using the host's cells) and find ways to leave that host and infect other hosts before the original host either dies or the host's immune system destroys it.     

Now the thing to remember with virus particles is that they are akin to poison.  It's not like you inhale one Covid virus particle and you get infected.    There is a set number of particles (we don't know how many) that need to be exceeded in order for a person to become infected.   This varies from person to person based on health and other factors.   If you stay under the threshold number you don't get infected and your body will just wipe out the handful of invaders or they will fail to take root (so to speak).   So like a poison, the greater the concentration of virus particles and the longer you are breathing them in the greater your chance of getting infected.

Now the vaccine likely does two things for those that get the vaccine:

1)  It likely raises the bar in terms of how many particles it takes to infect you.  So say it originally took 200, now it might take 1000

2)  It gives the body a heads-up to prepare for a possible invasion.  With this heads up if you do exceed the particle limit the body has a head start fighting off the infection so you are likely to have a less severe illness because the body's defense will dampen the virus's ability to multiply much quicker.   Because the virus doesn't really get a chance to multiply in great numbers, there are far fewer virus particles in the respiratory system that can be exhaled with every breath.   So people who are vaccinated are less contagious than those who are unvaccinated.   

So the greater the number of vaccinated people the more miserable a virus is because the vaccine makes it harder for it to achieve its two functions I mentioned earlier.   Enough people are vaccinated and the virus goes away (herd immunity is achieved).   

NOTE-  the more a virus gets to multiply, the more likely there were be a "mistake" in reproduction.  Some mistakes can't function but occasionally those "mistakes' are better than the original at achieving its objective of finding hosts and making lots of copies of itself.

Now prior to the Delta Variant, Covid wasn't particularly high on the contagion scale.  The airborne virus concentrations were all that great and it took quite a bit of close contact for the virus to find another host.  The Vaccine was shown to be very effective in dropping cases and we started seeing significant progress even before we got to herd immunity levels.

Now the reason the Delta Variant is so damn effective is that it multiples quicker in the host's body and the overall viral loads are greater (I have heard 1000 times greater).   With those greater viral loads, the unvaccinated patients are shedding massive amounts of the virus in the air once they get infected.

Now for the unvaccinated, this meant:

1)  The unvaccinated are getting infected in much greater numbers.  The increase of virus particles is making it much easier to make the number to infect new hosts

2)  Those unvaccinated who are infected are shedding many more virus particles so the concentration of particles around the patient is much greater.  With those greater particle loads, the virus is finding it can even reach the higher thresholds needed to infect vaccinated people.

Now the vaccinated people have these issues:

1)  With the greater virus particle concentrations it's easier to for the virus to reach your new higher infection threshold so more vaccinated people are being infected

2)  The one plus is your body is still primed to fight the virus.  So when vaccinated people are infected they are much less contagious as there are far fewer virus particles in their respiratory systems to exhale.


So what we really see happening, is that the delta variant is reducing the herd immunity effect.    It means an even higher percentage of people need to get vaccinated for us to stop this Delta Variant.    The other alternative is a booster shot that either strengthens the existing vaccine or is more targeted to the delta (and other new variants).  Of course with so much of the world still desperately needing their first vaccination, there are ethical issues to consider.

Of course, even with the Delta variant, things like mask-wearing and social distancing help reduce the spread.  Like the vaccine, the masks and the social distancing are a bit less effective.


Any questions?

[Bob In PA]

Thank you, Rich.  Very much appreciated.  Bob