Submarine disaster in North Atlantic

[DaveBrown74]

Well, this was somewhat encouraging to read about first thing this am:

https://www.geo.tv/latest/494647-banging-sounds-heard-from-area-where-submersible-went-missing


I went to bed last night thinking the most likely scenario was that everyone was long since dead. Reading the above though gives me some hope that at least someone is alive down there.

Whether that's the case is uncertain, and even if it is the case, actually rescuing living people in this situation is beyond difficult. So I still think the odds of a good outcome are low, but no doubt they are better now than they were before these noises were discovered.

They're really up against the clock now though. The estimates would have these folks running out of air sometime between 2am and 6am early tomorrow AM. Obviously, I have zero expertise on any of this stuff, but I have speculated to myself that these oxygen time estimates might be a bit generous. People tend to need more oxygen when they're deeply stressed and agitated. If you think of oxygen intake by 5 human beings that are in a normal, everyday mindset, and then you consider what the intake looks like if it's 5 human beings who are terrified and fearing for their lives, my guess is that it's pretty different. I have no idea if these estimates are accounting for that. I also have no idea how much water they have down there, but 3 days without water is about the maximum limit for any human being. So that's also a bit of a concern. Food is not.

[DaveBrown74]

They are reporting noises in the ocean in the search area.  Not sure what that means

Yes - just posted the same update at the same time.

I think the odds are pretty good that it's a human. Banging every 30 minute interval is not something a fish is going to do I don't think.

I'd like to think they can now locate the sub pretty quickly if these noises persist. I would think they have the technology to do that, despite the vastness of the area.

[Ed Vette]

A few things come to mind. First of all this is not just a tragedy it's a setback for Ocean exploration. We know more about outer space than the depths of our oceans.

I wondered if one person aboard would kill the other passengers to extend the air supply.

Is it possible that an underwater creature damaged the vessel? A whale or school of sharks could infect quite an assault.

[DaveBrown74]

A few things come to mind. First of all this is not just a tragedy it's a setback for Ocean exploration. We know more about outer space than the depths of our oceans.

I wondered if one person aboard would kill the other passengers to extend the air supply.

Is it possible that an underwater creature damaged the vessel? A whale or school of sharks could infect quite an assault.

I think there are all kinds of possibilities as to the actual cause of this disaster, including marine life interference (as you mentioned).

As for killing someone, I doubt that very much. Even in a deranged, desperate state, it's hard to see that instinct prevailing. Also, what is the upside of doing that? If you kill one or two of the people on board, and then you still end up dying, you are going to your grave a selfish, cold blooded murderer. If you do it and happen to survive, you're likely going to jail for a long time or the rest of your life. Just doesn't seem like tons of upside.

[Ed Vette]

I think there are all kinds of possibilities as to the actual cause of this disaster, including marine life interference (as you mentioned).

As for killing someone, I doubt that very much. Even in a deranged, desperate state, it's hard to see that instinct prevailing. Also, what is the upside of doing that? If you kill one or two of the people on board, and then you still end up dying, you are going to your grave a selfish, cold blooded murderer. If you do it and happen to survive, you're likely going to jail for a long time or the rest of your life. Just doesn't seem like tons of upside.

Of course not and not very likely unless desperation and madness set in. Imagine being locked into a small space for such a long time. I wouldn't rule out suicide if it were even possible. It's got to be a nightmare for those people.

[MightyGiants]

If there are survivors, I think it's a long shot that a rescue can be enacted before their oxygen is depleted. 

[DaveBrown74]

If there are survivors, I think it's a long shot that a rescue can be enacted before their oxygen is depleted. 

I agree. Still extremely low odds, despite signs of potential life. As of right now I have not seen any headlines that they have even located the sub. Once they have located it, it's presumably going to take hours to potentially pull it out. Seems they're only working with maybe 14-16 hours at this point. If they haven't at least pinpointed the location of the sub in the next 4-5 hours you have to think the odds of a good outcome are very close to zero. They already may be.

With that said, the media seems to be pushing a story of hope this AM, but that may just be because that keeps people clicking.

[MightyGiants]

I agree. Still extremely low odds, despite signs of potential life. As of right now I have not seen any headlines that they have even located the sub. Once they have located it, it's presumably going to take hours to potentially pull it out. Seems they're only working with maybe 14-16 hours at this point. If they haven't at least pinpointed the location of the sub in the next 4-5 hours you have to think the odds of a good outcome are very close to zero. They already may be.

With that said, the media seems to be pushing a story of hope this AM, but that may just be because that keeps people clicking.

If they fail to get rescued, I can't imagine a more gruesome way to die.  I mean, they essentially are buried alive under 2 miles of ocean in a tiny tube, just waiting to die with no food or water and likely freezing by now as they likely exhausted their electric heat (and light).  If they have been tapping every half hour for days hoping to be rescued...

[DaveBrown74]

Of course not and not very likely unless desperation and madness set in. Imagine being locked into a small space for such a long time. I wouldn't rule out suicide if it were even possible. It's got to be a nightmare for those people.

I couldn't agree more. They're sitting in close quarters in their own filth (imagine the stench by now), they likely haven't slept a wink in days, and I doubt they have remotely sufficient food/water. It's one thing to endure all that when you have somewhat realistic hope, but the CEO of the company surely knows the specifics on the oxygen supply and has probably informed the others of that by now.

I have to imagine if I were in that situation and I had a somewhat painless suicide option like a suicide pill they give astronauts, I'd seriously consider it and would probably do it at this point. It's easy to sit in comfort in our world and say you wouldn't and that you'd play right up to the whistle, but imagine the hell they're going through both physically and mentally. Really horrible to even think about.

[MightyGiants]

Interesting, there was a whistle blower


https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/20/a-whistleblower-raised-safety-concerns-about-oceangates-submersible-in-2018-then-he-was-fired/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANSM0g0__KnMOGzlGreeyEZX0jh7SgIIFjIMbSDPHb8Y9NCFqzHI8mJ50yXq8L6mURRI26_VrI7gf8f5zzSGvw-nFyJebK8S_d9XtA-k5iT-6zMLt8axPAHEMRYcu2hpIXdvc2kJ6zRcSm2JKPPMVWqpN-pOQ_GuuY_PesAJEyY3

[DaveBrown74]

Interesting, there was a whistle blower


https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/20/a-whistleblower-raised-safety-concerns-about-oceangates-submersible-in-2018-then-he-was-fired/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANSM0g0__KnMOGzlGreeyEZX0jh7SgIIFjIMbSDPHb8Y9NCFqzHI8mJ50yXq8L6mURRI26_VrI7gf8f5zzSGvw-nFyJebK8S_d9XtA-k5iT-6zMLt8axPAHEMRYcu2hpIXdvc2kJ6zRcSm2JKPPMVWqpN-pOQ_GuuY_PesAJEyY3

Anytime a whistle blower gets fired, it's frequently because the truth hurts.

[MightyGiants]

More information

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/20/missing-titan-submersible-previous-problems-titanic-dives/

[DaveBrown74]

Another interesting (and very sobering) tidbit from the comments section in the WSJ from someone with apparent sub experience:


"Having served on a submarine back in the day, sound under water is difficult to trace for a few reasons. One, sound travels faster in water and there are thermal layers in the ocean that can affect the sound wave. It's a common practice for subs to drop to a lower depth to avoid detection because of thermal layers. Wasn't my department but that's what I recall."

[DaveBrown74]

I am reading some (unsubstantiated) speculation now that even if they did locate the sub, they have probably now run out of time to actually get it to the surface and save these individuals.

One other point a friend of mine made was to consider how difficult it is to find things in the ocean, even if you know roughly where they went down. The Titanic itself was not found (in terms of confirming it's location) until 1985. It went down in 1912. This little capsule is at most a pinky-nail in comparison to the Titanic. Granted technology has gotten significantly better over the years, but you have to think the odds of them ever finding this thing at all (even well past the oxygen running out) are not high. Clearly once they're certain these people cannot possibly be alive, they're going to shut the search down.

[Ed Vette]

If they remain down there, would the temperature be low enough to preserve the bodies?