Giants vs NFC East

[kingm56]

You put a lot of effort and research into this project and the end result in the rankings is pretty much what it is.

Looks like there's room for some of the Giants players to move up and if you do this next year, I'm hoping to see some nice grades for Hyatt, Hawkins and even Simmons. I think you went low on Slay but I can't argue the results. I'd like to see JMS and Neal move up to the top. Same with Thibs.

I'm optimistic but realistic that Jones will move up and at least pass Prescott. Hurts is clearly the best in the division.

Thanks for the outstanding body of work! Remind me to move this over to the Chalk Board at some point for future reference.

 

Thank you, Ed! Yes, there's a chance DJ could move past Dax this year; I don't want to suggest otherwise. 

[kingm56]

Cowgirls gave Prescott a stupid contract too!  What's that prove!

Vikings gave Cousins a ton of money at one point too!

Giving a QB 'lots' of money is not the same as Hurts landmark deal, which made him the highest-paid player in NFL history.  Moreover, the Cowboys have a history of overpaying players, the Eagles do not.  In fact, the Eagles have a 25 year history of making really sound financial decisions.  It should be obvious that Hurts is not merely a product of the system, he is the system.  I guess we forgot the two games Phili lost when Hurts was injured? As it turnouts, you can't simply replace him with a good QB and achieve similar results.  As someone who enjoys betting on and playing FF, I consume a lot of the NFL, outside our Giants; it was obvious to me 3 years ago that Hurts was a top 5 talent; in fact, I made that proclamation here, which was rightfully criticized, including from posters I have incredible respect for like @DaveBrown74.  Yet, today, by every single tangible metric, Hurts is a Top 5 QB, as indicated by his AP selection.  In fact, I tried to find a single credible source that ranked Hurts outside the top 6....I couldn't find a single one.

Also, I would not classify Dak's contract as "stupid." Dak has a 61-36 record and led the Cowboys  1x 13 win and 2x 12 win seasons; the only time the Cowboys finished below .500 was when he was injured.  Put another way, if the Giants don't win a championship and/or SB over the next 3 years, will you classify DJ's contract as stupid?

[Uni]

In both cases, we see a failure to factor in the supporting structure.  What we see is what Mike Lombardi refers to as "production scouts".

I think you're missing my point - there is an inherent hypocrisy amongst many Giants fans that insist Jones is the best QB in the NFCE and explain the lack of production to deficiencies in protection and weapons. But when Prescott or Hurts are lauded by the national media and front offices, their production is explained as simply a product of protection and weapons and they're not as good as Jones.

You cannot see this is simply fallacy? And to refer to Lombardi here to support your opinion is incongruous since he thinks Hurts is a blue chip QB and Jones is a vastly overpaid lower half QB.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[Ed Vette]

Hurts looked so bad his rookie season that I never imagined he would get to where he is today. DJ was clearly looking like the better QB back then.

[uconnjack8]

Matt,

Nice job with this especially staying objective (which will not get many "like"s). I couldn't argue anyone more than a half point either way. 

As Ed said, hopefully next year their will be Giants who command a higher grade.

I think the Giants will overtake Dallas this in terms of record.  I think they may be as close as your scores have them.

[DaveBrown74]

I will fully admit that when the Eagles took Hurts in the second round that year, I thought they were a bit nuts. It not only seemed like a reach for Hurts, but it seemed odd to take a QB at all given they seemingly had more pressing needs. Clearly they really liked Hurts.

To be clear, I was not high on Hurts as an NFL talent. I knew he was a great athlete and excellent college QB, but I didn't think he had the arm talent, and I didn't think being shorter than 6'2" would help him either. I continued to think that about him in 2020 and 2021, and I felt somewhat vindicated when they made the playoffs in 2021 and he had that horrific performance against the Bucs in a very ugly loss. I also felt a bit vindicated when he coughed up the ball multiple times in a regular season loss to us that year.

In 2022, things changed though. Obviously, the biggest change was that the Eagles brought in AJ Brown, who had an utterly dominant season, and no doubt that heavily influenced Hurts' performance. Also, their schedule was very forgiving. I recall watching a number of games in the earlier part of the season against bad defenses like Detroit and Houston where Hurts was basically playing pitch and catch with open receivers behind his vaunted, brick wall of an offensive line. No doubt he had plenty around him. No doubt about this at all. Had he been on a lesser team like say the Panthers last year, his numbers would have been different. No denying this.

Hurts still looked very good though, even in spite of the addition of supporting talent. I think two things happened, as far as my perception of him:

(1) I underestimated him from the beginning. I know some will say that that is hindsight talking, and it is to an extent, but the bottom line is I don't think any sane individual can argue that the Eagles have anything less than a top tier front office and scouting department. And clearly they thought (and think) very highly of Hurts. I have no problem admitting I was probably wrong about him initially. To say otherwise is kind of saying I have a better eye for talent than the Eagles scouts and front office folks, which I obviously don't.

(2) Hurts has improved as a player during his pro career. That can certainly happen. I think it's fair to say the same thing about what our own QB has managed to do over the past couple years.

I definitely don't rate Hurts as highly as I do Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, or Herbert. I know some do, but I would still take any of those guys over him myself. And it's possible Trevor Lawrence could be added to that list if his trajectory further resembles Josh Allen and he has a huge year three leap the way Allen did. Lawrence definitely looked impressive in a number of games I watched last year. He is on my radar this year as far as QBs who I think could step into the elite ranks.

But as of right now, Hurts is still the best QB in the division in my opinion. With regard to his performance, he was a clear top 2 or 3 QB in the NFL last year. For much of the season he was in the driver's seat for the MVP. Do I think he's top two in the league overall? No, I still favor the others I mentioned above over him. An yes, obviously Hurts is in a very good situation. But to deny him any of the credit for his season last year and hand it all to everyone else, when QB is the most important position on the field by far, seems incorrect to me. I am happy to admit that I most likely underestimated him going into the draft and in his couple years in the league.

[uconnjack8]

Right now Hurts is the best QB in the NFC IMHO and I didnt think he'd be a good pro.  Had a hard time thinking he would get much better after he got yanked in a national championship game only to see Bama roll after that move.

His throwing looks like it has improved significantly.  I am sure having a top 3 OL and excellent receivers helps.  The reason I thought he'd never excel in the NFL is that he had those things at Bama and still didnt look great.  Looks like he has worked on it and improved.   Giants will need to stop the Eagles run game if they really want to test his throwing.

[MightyGiants]

Look at the degree of difficulty in both QB's highlight tapes.


Jones (often under duress)

Hurts (is usually well-protected and takes advantage of great receiving targets)

[Bob In PA]

For the last two years, I have tried to evaluate individual talent of each NFC East roster to objectively predict thier final NFC East rankings.  Below is my latest effort.  Each player is given a score (1 through 5) and ranked from 1-to-4 based on a relative comparison with thier NFC East Counterpart.

King: Probably post of the year. Thanks for doing all that work. IMO, this year's NFC Super Bowl team - Cowboys.

The Eagles are highly unlikely to be as "lucky" (absence of injuries) as they were last year.

Cowboys' defense will carry them a long way (but I still think Giants will win in Week One).

In fact, Cowboys had a few KEY bad breaks in the last 5 to 10 years causing them to stumble needlessly.

I'm sure everyone can pick on you for something in a post that long, and they probably will. LOL Thanks again.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

In point of fact, you are in in the minority, if you believe DJ is currently better than Dax:

Daks NFL accolades:
2× Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)
Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year 2016
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year 2016
Walter Payton Man of the Year 2022

DJs NFL accolades:
None to date...

PFF has Dak #10 and DJ #18:  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season
NFL News has Dak #10 and DJ#18: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-ranking-all-32-teams-primary-starting-quarterbacks-at-the-end-of-th
Sportsnaut has Dak #11 and DJ#13: https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-qb-rankings/
CBS has Dak #9 and DJ #17: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/top-10-nfl-qbs-of-2023-afc-reigns-supreme-as-jets-aaron-rodgers-joins-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-other-stars/

*this was the top 4 Google results ("NFL current QB rankings"); I searched two pages of rankings, I couldn't find a single one that suggested DJ was better than Dax. 

Concerning WRs, I would love to hear your rationale for ranking Hodgins over CeeDee, MCLaurin, or Brown. Equally interesting would be your rationale for placing Smith, Dotson or Cooks below Slayton.  I'm a huge Thibs fan; yet, you would have to be a huge homer to suggest he's better than Micah Parsons or John Sweat.  If Thibs produced a double-digit sack season and made a PB, we would sing his praises.  Well, Sweat accomplished both feats in 2021/22 and Parsons is on a torrent HoF trajectory, which leaves Sweat.  I gave Sweat and Thibs the same score; yet, the ranking goes to Sweat as he's been better than average for multiple seasons. 

Of course if we go with measurables from 2022


QB rating

Jones- 92.5

Prescott- 91.1

QBR

Joens- 62.9

Prescott- 59.9

PFF

Jones- 76.0

Prescott- 72.0

[Bob In PA]

Of course if we go with measurables from 2022

Rich (and Ed): The discussion about Dak is somewhat irrelevant, IMO.

IMO it's possible Cowboys have a team that could get to the big game with a "Trent Dilfer" type QB.

I view Dak as less important to Cowboys than Hurts is to Eagles. Controversial? Maybe, but I'm 100% sure.

Bob

[kingm56]

Of course if we go with measurables from 2022


QB rating

Jones- 92.5

Prescott- 91.1

QBR

Joens- 62.9

Prescott- 59.9

PFF

Jones- 76.0

Prescott- 72.0

Rich,

What about passing yards, TDs, etc?  Isn't also fair to account for Dak's injury, which caused him to miss 5 games in 2022?  What about the other 4-seasons?  This post perfectly highlights Uni's point. A few hours ago you highlighted the fallacy of using measurable data to judge QB performance, at least as it relates to evaluating Hurts. However, a few hours later you use performance data to illustrate your point.

"I completely agree with you.  We have seen from the survey of coaches and NFL front office people that they can be over-swayed by production, and they don't give enough consideration to support a QB receives.  Hurts had the best line, the best-receiving targets, and solid coaching (at least last season).  Any NFL-caliber QB will thrive in those conditions."

I watched a good NFL QB lose 2 games with the benefit of the best line, the best-receiving targets, and solid coaching.

If you want to put DJ over Dak, that's perfectly fine as the gap between them isn't that wide; however, to suggest the majority of experts are doing the same is intellectually dishonest.  Also, if we could stop focusing on one position, that would be great!  What about the reset of the analysis?  Any glaring mistakes?

[kingm56]

King: Probably post of the year. Thanks for doing all that work. IMO, this year's NFC Super Bowl team - Cowboys.

The Eagles are highly unlikely to be as "lucky" (absence of injuries) as they were last year.

Cowboys' defense will carry them a long way (but I still think Giants will win in Week One).

In fact, Cowboys had a few KEY bad breaks in the last 5 to 10 years causing them to stumble needlessly.

I'm sure everyone can pick on you for something in a post that long, and they probably will. LOL Thanks again.

Bob

Bob, I love the way you conduct yourself; thank you for being you!

[Painter]

That's a remarkable effort you have made, kingm56 which should be acknowledged before others here start to take exception based on their opinions presented as fact.

My personal view is that there is always too much uncertainty involving not just the NFC East but all teams, as they begin a new season, to support even our best guesses.

However, I can and will say that I am encouraged enough by the improvement in the Giants Management, Coaching, and overall Roster talent to support a feeling of some satisfaction and indeed optimism.

So, let's start the season and take it one game at a time until facts have a chance to catchup with our guesses and pre-analyses, one way or the other.

Cheers!

[Jclayton92]

Of course if we go with measurables from 2022


QB rating

Jones- 92.5

Prescott- 91.1

QBR

Joens- 62.9

Prescott- 59.9

PFF

Jones- 76.0

Prescott- 72.0

Prescott only played 12 games, he's also thrown for 4500 multiple times and 30 tds multiple times. He may be on the decline possibly but there's no question he's been the better Qb. Could Jones take him over this year, absolutely but Prescott has been the superior QB besides this injury riddled past season.