Giants vs NFC East

[kartanoman]

I want to give kudos to the "King" for the time and effort in putting the data and analysis together to start this thread. QB discussion aside, there are some good points for discussion on how the Giants have, at an individual level, closed the gap against their divisional rivals' individuals.

But rarely do individuals win games, much less titles. So, it still comes down to how the Giants' offense, defense and special teams units, respectively, have closed the gap against their divisional peers in preparation for the season ahead.

While there is no question the Giants have made the most strides in improving their defense, collectively, they have significantly improved their offensive skill positions, and one of the line positions, but questions remain whether JMS Jr., and another year together for the incumbents, will be enough to demonstrate collective growth, and overall improvement, of the offensive line which will be the catalyst for improving the overall offensive performance.

The special teams has an ace in the hole with Graham Gano but continued concerns remain by the decision to give the Scottish Hammer another year to resolve the issues in his skillset. One more issue, such as a dropped ball during a punt attempt, a field goal attempt, or even an extra point attempt, may be the one issue that could break the Giants' chance to make the post-season in what will be a tough season where every mistake will be far more costly than last season. In other words, Gillan has far greater pressure on him, this season, to become an excellent cold weather punter/holder or this will be the end of the line for his career (think of Matt Dodge). The NFC Rivals have better special teams in all which is why I remained puzzled as to why the Giants stayed with Gillan. Head-scratching continues this year and a bald spot has begun to show on the top of my head (NOTE TO SELF: make appointment with doctor for hair loss treatment).

Peace!

Peace!

[MightyGiants]

Prescott only played 12 games, he's also thrown for 4500 multiple times and 30 tds multiple times. He may be on the decline possibly but there's no question he's been the better Qb. Could Jones take him over this year, absolutely but Prescott has been the superior QB besides this injury riddled past season.

Jess,

I don't disagree with your assertion that Prescott was more productive years ago, but is it that relevant in evaluating these QBs this season?

[MightyGiants]

Rich,

What about passing yards, TDs, etc?  Isn't also fair to account for Dak's injury, which caused him to miss 5 games in 2022?  What about the other 4-seasons?  This post perfectly highlights Uni's point. A few hours ago you highlighted the fallacy of using measurable data to judge QB performance, at least as it relates to evaluating Hurts. However, a few hours later you use performance data to illustrate your point.

"I completely agree with you.  We have seen from the survey of coaches and NFL front office people that they can be over-swayed by production, and they don't give enough consideration to support a QB receives.  Hurts had the best line, the best-receiving targets, and solid coaching (at least last season).  Any NFL-caliber QB will thrive in those conditions."

I watched a good NFL QB lose 2 games with the benefit of the best line, the best-receiving targets, and solid coaching.

If you want to put DJ over Dak, that's perfectly fine as the gap between them isn't that wide; however, to suggest the majority of experts are doing the same is intellectually dishonest.  Also, if we could stop focusing on one position, that would be great!  What about the reset of the analysis?  Any glaring mistakes?

I am certainly willing to expand on my points for clarity.   The flaw in the points made by you and Uni was that you assumed I hadn't considered supporting factors, which is something I most certainly did.

When you compare Hurts somewhat better productivity last season, you need to consider

HURTS

Coaching/Scheme- elite
Protection- elite
Receiving- elite

JONES

Coaching/Scheme- elite
Protection- below-average/bad
Receiving weapons- average/below-average


PRESCOTT

Coaching/Scheme-  average
Protection Above-average/average
Receiving  Above average/average


All my points are more than consistent once you take into account those factors

[Trench]

Just win baby.

That's the only stat needed to prove if one is a great QB or not (in my opinion).

Otherwise, you have Ken Andersen, Boomer, Warren Moon, Steve Bartkowski or Dan Fouts. Very VERY good statistical QBs who couldn't consistently the biggest of games. I will always go with the Al Davis barometer.

[DaveBrown74]

Just win baby.

That's the only stat needed to prove if one is a great QB or not (in my opinion).

Otherwise, you have Ken Andersen, Boomer, Warren Moon, Steve Bartkowski or Dan Fouts. Very VERY good statistical QBs who couldn't consistently the biggest of games. I will always go with the Al Davis barometer.

I agree, although to be fair Eli was .500 for his career and never won a single playoff game other than during the two SB runs. For a highly celebrated QB, he lost plenty of games.

And he's 100% definitely going to the Hall of Fame.

[GloryDays]

In point of fact, you are in in the minority, if you believe DJ is currently better than Dax:

Daks NFL accolades:
2× Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)
Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year 2016
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year 2016
Walter Payton Man of the Year 2022

DJs NFL accolades:
None to date...

PFF has Dak #10 and DJ #18:  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season
NFL News has Dak #10 and DJ#18: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-ranking-all-32-teams-primary-starting-quarterbacks-at-the-end-of-th
Sportsnaut has Dak #11 and DJ#13: https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-qb-rankings/
CBS has Dak #9 and DJ #17: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/top-10-nfl-qbs-of-2023-afc-reigns-supreme-as-jets-aaron-rodgers-joins-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-other-stars/

*this was the top 4 Google results ("NFL current QB rankings"); I searched two pages of rankings, I couldn't find a single one that suggested DJ was better than Dax. 

Concerning WRs, I would love to hear your rationale for ranking Hodgins over CeeDee, MCLaurin, or Brown. Equally interesting would be your rationale for placing Smith, Dotson or Cooks below Slayton.  I'm a huge Thibs fan; yet, you would have to be a huge homer to suggest he's better than Micah Parsons or John Sweat.  If Thibs produced a double-digit sack season and made a PB, we would sing his praises.  Well, Sweat accomplished both feats in 2021/22 and Parsons is on a torrent HoF trajectory, which leaves Sweat.  I gave Sweat and Thibs the same score; yet, the ranking goes to Sweat as he's been better than average for multiple seasons. 

You seem to make all your evaluations based on existing stats. While that could be considered safe, it's a cold compilation of lots of consensus by others who do not have much more to go on, except for recent accomplishments. We have a young team with many new parts and clear potential based on how they have looked in the limited time they have had on the field.

[Ed Vette]

This project can't be properly completed by including factors such as luck and potential. It does however include what would be intangibles such as QB elusiveness, schemed time to throw based on routes and Quarterback style such as pocket QB vs highly mobile and passing on the run ability. It includes designed Runs by QB and Runs because of coverage or failure to get a timely pass off. Those items also have an effect in the evaluation of Receivers and the Offensive Line. Let's say for example that Hurts didn't run for as much yardage as he did, and instead completed more passes at a rate of 70%, or in doing so was sacked more and absorbed more pressure those would affect stats.

[Ed Vette]

@kingm56 what would your scores have been for the Giants at the same time last year and how would the scores compared?

How would they look if you include the rotational and backup players for the Giants.

Only if you have the time.

That would coincide with my thread analysis of the two season's rosters. Except my comparison was last year's end of season in some cases. Like Jones vs Jones.

Off the top of my head, LY's QB would have been fair to poor. The perception of the Receivers was pretty high going into last season with Golladay, Toney, Robinson and Shepard. TE would have been much lower as would ILB and CB.

[kingm56]

You seem to make all your evaluations based on existing stats. While that could be considered safe, it's a cold compilation of lots of consensus by others who do not have much more to go on, except for recent accomplishments. We have a young team with many new parts and clear potential based on how they have looked in the limited time they have had on the field.

Stats were not the only tool, nor the primary vehicle evaluating players; if they were, Fletcher Cox would be ranked ahead of Dexter Lawrence and CeeDee Lamb ahead Terry M.  Moreover, you seem to evaluate our team in an utter vacuum; to that point, you fail to realize that all three of our division foes have "many new parts and clear potential based on how they have looked in the limited time."  This is especially true for the Eagles, who have crushed thier last three drafts and are in the midst of defensive and offensive line transitions. The Giants are not the only team that drafted new players over the last two years...

[kingm56]

@kingm56 what would your scores have been for the Giants at the same time last year and how would the scores compared?

How would they look if you include the rotational and backup players for the Giants.

Only if you have the time.

That would coincide with my thread analysis of the two season's rosters. Except my comparison was last year's end of season in some cases. Like Jones vs Jones.

Off the top of my head, LY's QB would have been fair to poor. The perception of the Receivers was pretty high going into last season with Golladay, Toney, Robinson and Shepard. TE would have been much lower as would ILB and CB.

I went back to find my efforts last year; unfortunately, it appears Rich was forced to delete our history to ensure the site remains responsive.  Last year, I had the Eagles #1, Cowboys #2, Giants #3 and Commanders #4, which is where each team landed.  Last year, the gap between the Cowboys and Giants was more than .5 point, which is statistically significant.  This year, I have the Cowboys and Giants withing .1, which is within the statistical margin; in short, they're in a virtual tie.  Although, Phili clearly has the most talent, the Giants could overtake the Cowboys as the NFC East #2.   

[Ed Vette]

I went back to find my efforts last year; unfortunately, it appears Rich was forced to delete our history to ensure the site remains responsive.  Last year, I had the Eagles #1, Cowboys #2, Giants #3 and Commanders #4, which is where each team landed.  Last year, the gap between the Cowboys and Giants was more than .5 point, which is statistically significant.  This year, I have the Cowboys and Giants withing .1, which is within the statistical margin; in short, they're in a virtual tie.  Although, Phili clearly has the most talent, the Giants could overtake the Cowboys as the NFC East #2.   

If we move it to the Chalk Board, that won't happen again.

[kingm56]

If we move it to the Chalk Board, that won't happen again.

That would be great; although, I completely understand why @MightyGiants has to keep the site efficient. 

[LennG]

Matt

 Didn't get to comment on your just terrific thread. Should be the thread of the year for all the work you put into it.

Again, thanks for all your work.