JJ McCarthy (could he be the Giants target in round one)?

[Jclayton92]

Every Qb considered in the 1st round had elite weapons besides Mccarthy.

[Ed Vette]

Tom Brady averaged 16.53 attempts per game his last 2 seasons at Michigan

Josh Allen had bit more than JJ,s  at 24.6 attempts per game and overall had less college attempts (655 to 714 for McCarthy)

add in 92 rushing attempts for a dual threat QB. As for Brady, lighting can strike twice, I suppose.

[Philosophers]

All of the QB prospects have questions but I believe Maye and Daniels have more than Williams and Mccarthy.

Maye- Lost to any team that was even remotely good this past season and the ACC was way down. His footwork as, as well as his decision making and accuracy come into question when he doesn't have a perfect pocket. I also really question the offense that he played in. Longo his OC every year but this past year really dumbs down the playbook to the point that he only runs 6-8 plays a game and yes they put up volume or did but so did Sam Howell under Longo. In fact Mayes best and Howells best in NC are eerily similar. I just don't think Maye has the moxy, to lead a team, some give him Herbert as a comp and I think that's his ceiling but he could just be howell 2.0

Daniels- While he got better every single year it took year 5 and multiple elite weapons to put up the stats that he did. Has he already hit his ceiling? Ontop of that his processing and short/intermediate game still leave a lot to be desired.

Jesus, I knew the point you were trying to make, but I kept misreading your post like 5 times before I finally read it correctly.  Not sure if that means I need more coffee or a cocktail.

[MightyGiants]

add in 92 rushing attempts for a dual threat QB. As for Brady, lighting can strike twice, I suppose.

I did some digging. Here are the 1st round college QBs with the least number of college attempts (compared to McCarthy's 714


https://x.com/NFL_Stats/status/1651561998218305575?s=20

[MightyGiants]

One high up NFC executive shared his disagreement with that notion by saying:

"I think there is a significant drop off in this QB class, but most around the league think its after the fourth quarterback, not the third. Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy (Michigan's J.J. McCarthy) are heads and shoulders better prospects then the next group of guys."

https://atozsports.com/nfl-draft/nfl-2024-draft-michigan-qb-jj-mccarthy-evaluation-higher-than-you-think/

[Ed Vette]

I did some digging. Here are the 1st round college QBs with the least number of college attempts (compared to McCarthy's 714


https://x.com/NFL_Stats/status/1651561998218305575?s=20

Since you're lobbying for McCarthy, which selection of QB's order do you see he should getting drafted? Better yet, why don't you slot the QB draft class and the round they should get picked if it's not the first round. Not the actual draft. Where you think they should fall.

[JT39]

No QB in this draft reads the defenses and progressions better than Drake Maye and he's the best most accurate deep passer too. His footwork will need consistency at the mext level.

No passer throws with greater touch and anticipation than Daniels and he's a legitimate comparison to Hurts and more of a scoring threat than Jackson. His arm is just adequate not great.

Williams is short and there have been many his size that have struggled at this level. Tua is an exception. He's not a pocket passer and is best moving.

You all can have your opinions about McCarthy. I didn't say he would fail, I said it's difficult to evaluate him. He averaged 22 passes a game... Twenty Two! Just wrap your heads around that. 22 touchdowns for an effective game manager.

And they won every game and I am sure he stopped throwing in a lot of blowouts. Would you be throwing late in games with a lead or try to run the clock out?

[Ed Vette]

And they won every game and I am sure he stopped throwing in a lot of blowouts. Would you be throwing late in games with a lead or try to run the clock out?

What's your point? I said it was difficult to evaluate him. They ran 60% of the snaps. Scored 2.7 rushing TDs per game to 1.6 passing. 40/24.

I said it's not his fault? What are you arguing about with that comment?

[JT39]

I am out. Have fun guys.

[MightyGiants]

Since you're lobbying for McCarthy, which selection of QB's order do you see he should getting drafted? Better yet, why don't you slot the QB draft class and the round they should get picked if it's not the first round. Not the actual draft. Where you think they should fall.

A few points:

1)  I don't "lobby".   When I heard Tony Pauline knocking McCarthy, I posted the video and the summary of his comments on this thread.   I have a column on my Tweetdeck with a search for "JJ McCarthy."  I post any tweets I see on that feed on this thread.   What you see as lobbying is, in reality, that since McCarthy has declared, the sentiment towards him has been rising steadily.

2) I haven't done a deep dive on the top 3 because I have accepted the current conventional wisdom that they will be long gone by the time the Giants pick at 6 and I consider the massive talent deficit this team suffers as a major reason for this team not to trade up (untalented teams have a terrible track record developing QBs)

3) From the class to Greg Gabriel to all the former GMs I have listened to over the years, none of them suggest scouting by projecting where a player should or will be drafted; in fact, most preach against that.

4) These days, I have strayed from the more traditional scouting and scouting reports in favor of more of an approach of hiring a franchise QB.  I look for the traits that good to great NFL QBs have, and I consider the red flags or paths to failure they may have.  I study the stats beyond just yards and TDs.   I watch as much tape as I can find and scouting videos that have scouting breakdowns (so I can see if what they claim is what I see). 

5) If I have time this weekend, I may start doing a deep dive on Drake Maye.  With the momentum that I am seeing with McCarthy, it's quite possible that by the end of the Combine, McCarthy could potentially replace Maye in the top 3 tier.

[Painter]

A few points:

1)  I don't "lobby".  When I heard Tony Pauline knocking McCarthy, I posted the video and the summary of his comments on this thread.  I have a column on my Tweetdeck with a search for "JJ McCarthy."  I post any tweets I see on that feed on this thread.  What you see as lobbying is, in reality, that since McCarthy has declared, the sentiment towards him has been rising steadily.

2) I haven't done a deep dive on the top 3 because I have accepted the current conventional wisdom that they will be long gone by the time the Giants pick at 6 and I consider the massive talent deficit this team suffers as a major reason for this team not to trade up (untalented teams have a terrible track record developing QBs)

3) From the class to Greg Gabriel to all the former GMs I have listened to over the years, none of them suggest scouting by projecting where a player should or will be drafted; in fact, most preach against that.

4) These days, I have strayed from the more traditional scouting and scouting reports in favor of more of an approach of hiring a franchise QB.  I look for the traits that good to great NFL QBs have, and I consider the red flags or paths to failure they may have.  I study the stats beyond just yards and TDs.  I watch as much tape as I can find and scouting videos that have scouting breakdowns (so I can see if what they claim is what I see). 

5) If I have time this weekend, I may start doing a deep dive on Drake Maye.  With the momentum that I am seeing with McCarthy, it's quite possible that by the end of the Combine, McCarthy could potentially replace Maye in the top 3 tier.

You don't lobby? Okay, if you say so, Rich. But you've had me fooled where it has involved McCarthy. In any case, you appear to put a great deal of effort into developing an independent assessment of the talent and likely prospects of the various players of your interest, especially QBs. While I understand that it's done for fun, would you say that your conclusions are generally more accurate than those of the average wag, or dare I ask, of one or more Giants GM?

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

I keep hearing it's hard to evaluate JJ.   This 20-minute video (it can be shorter if you bump the speed up to 1.25 (plus you can skip over the Raiders intro) does an excellent job showing the traits that will make him successful in the NFL.  It starts with his negatives and then systematically breaks down the traits a successful QB needs and provides plays demonstrating each of those traits.

[Ed Vette]

Come on Rich, you've been pushing this player and all in like you have been for Daniel Jones for years. Not that there's anything wrong with it, it's just that it creates 17 pages of argument.

Do you want to know why I think it's premature and unfair to judge this QB at this point after all the other reasons I gave? I'll lay it out for you but I will say that it's again premature until after the Combine where we will have more information and be able to have a more complete package.

JJ has some nice fundamental attributes that will serve him well and his age as you've said a few times, gives him the opportunity for a nice upside. He has good throwing mechanics and although he is athletic and can run, he's been coached to move within the pocket or outside it to give a play time to develop when the pocket collapses or for a Receiver to get open downfield. While going so however, he is the antithesis of Bo Nix. Nix will take the short open Receiver, while JJ will look to that mid to below deep range for the completion.

Still he has a good completion percentage because at that range he has the ability to fit a ball in tight spaces. However while doing this he can be inconsistent in his accuracy. Although he reads the field well and has good anticipation, he has a habit or tendency to lock on to his primary Receiver and at the next level, bird dogging or DJ'ing his Receiver it will lead to interceptions.

He has never been asked to be the Driver of that Offense but with him they win games because he has been an excellent Game Manager. That's not a slight, but at the next level, this is a passing league and very good to Elite QB's win Champions when Defenses raise their level of play. Michigan drives the ball on the ground and mixes in the passing game and it's worked well for them.

His Offensive Line was not as good at Pass Protection as the 2022 team and it's evident that although he's got nice pocket presence, he can fail at sensing a Defender closing in on him. Not that he's bad under pressure because he's good under pressure, it's just that at the next level, the pressure will result in turnovers, errant passes and sacks because he lacks a short game. He also lacks touch in that short game. Another DJ trait.

He has a good arm but not a great arm and his deep passes over 40 years drop off.

A lot of this is correctable or not. It's been five years and Daniel Jones still reverts. On the other hand other QB's have.

I remember that Maryland game and if you haven't watched it, I suggest you do so. It illustrates how he can be inconsistent. It was his worst game but it unfortunately sticks in my head. He burned bad teams but wasn't the driver against good teams. The exception was the Penn St. game. 8 attempts for 60 yards.

From what I've seen, I have Daniel Jones flashbacks where I felt he would be able to grow into an excellent QB. Even after the multiple turnovers his rookie season, his production was very good. Unfortunately when reigned in, he became exposed.

This is why I don't think it's fair to evaluate him based on all this. He needed to leave Michigan and go somewhere where he had a chance to develop and show what he could do. I think as a true Junior, he should have stayed one more year and in 2025 would have the chance to be the number two QB of that Draft and challenge Sanders for the Crown.

Instead he chose to move on because Harbaugh was leaving and he may have based his decision in that uncertainty. To me that's a potential Red Flag. Not a Red Flag, a potential one.

I would take a chance on him if he drops to the Mid First Round and trade the two Second Round picks to get him because of his age and his potential but most likely they won't have that opportunity. There are too many QB needy teams sitting there.

It's a shame because he could sit a year behind Jones and hopefully not be forced on the field too soon.

Based on everything I see, I would not pick him at six.

[MightyGiants]

Come on Rich, you've been pushing this player and all in like you have been for Daniel Jones for years. Not that there's anything wrong with it, it's just that it creates 17 pages of argument.

Do you want to know why I think it's premature and unfair to judge this QB at this point after all the other reasons I gave? I'll lay it out for you but I will say that it's again premature until after the Combine where we will have more information and be able to have a more complete package.

JJ has some nice fundamental attributes that will serve him well and his age as you've said a few times, gives him the opportunity for a nice upside. He has good throwing mechanics and although he is athletic and can run, he's been coached to move within the pocket or outside it to give a play time to develop when the pocket collapses or for a Receiver to get open downfield. While going so however, he is the antithesis of Bo Nix. Nix will take the short open Receiver, while JJ will look to that mid to below deep range for the completion.

Still he has a good completion percentage because at that range he has the ability to fit a ball in tight spaces. However while doing this he can be inconsistent in his accuracy. Although he reads the field well and has good anticipation, he has a habit or tendency to lock on to his primary Receiver and at the next level, bird dogging or DJ'ing his Receiver it will lead to interceptions.

He has never been asked to be the Driver of that Offense but with him they win games because he has been an excellent Game Manager. That's not a slight, but at the next level, this is a passing league and very good to Elite QB's win Champions when Defenses raise their level of play. Michigan drives the ball on the ground and mixes in the passing game and it's worked well for them.

His Offensive Line was not as good at Pass Protection as the 2022 team and it's evident that although he's got nice pocket presence, he can fail at sensing a Defender closing in on him. Not that he's bad under pressure because he's good under pressure, it's just that at the next level, the pressure will result in turnovers, errant passes and sacks because he lacks a short game. He also lacks touch in that short game. Another DJ trait.

He has a good arm but not a great arm and his deep passes over 40 years drop off.

A lot of this is correctable or not. It's been five years and Daniel Jones still reverts. On the other hand other QB's have.

I remember that Maryland game and if you haven't watched it, I suggest you do so. It illustrates how he can be inconsistent. It was his worst game but it unfortunately sticks in my head. He burned bad teams but wasn't the driver against good teams. The exception was the Penn St. game. 8 attempts for 60 yards.

From what I've seen, I have Daniel Jones flashbacks where I felt he would be able to grow into an excellent QB. Even after the multiple turnovers his rookie season, his production was very good. Unfortunately when reigned in, he became exposed.

This is why I don't think it's fair to evaluate him based on all this. He needed to leave Michigan and go somewhere where he had a chance to develop and show what he could do. I think as a true Junior, he should have stayed one more year and in 2025 would have the chance to be the number two QB of that Draft and challenge Sanders for the Crown.

Instead he chose to move on because Harbaugh was leaving and he may have based his decision in that uncertainty. To me that's a potential Red Flag. Not a Red Flag, a potential one.

I would take a chance on him if he drops to the Mid First Round and trade the two Second Round picks to get him because of his age and his potential but most likely they won't have that opportunity. There are too many QB needy teams sitting there.

It's a shame because he could sit a year behind Jones and hopefully not be forced on the field too soon.

Based on everything I see, I would not pick him at six.

Ed,

You laid out your opinion in great detail and I respect and appreciate that.  I am not going to try to dissuade you from the position.  I will note a couple of key differences in our views.

1)  I don't use the term game manager.   As Bill Polian said with a chuckle, every QB needs to be a game manager.   More to the point, it's about the abilities a QB shows when they have to throw the ball and how consistently they display those abilities when they throw the ball.  If they have the traits to be successful in the NFL, I consider how often they throw the ball a minor issue at best.


2) A couple of pages back I posted a stat comparison between Daniel Jones and JJ McCarthy, those stats show they were not remotely the same QB.

3) I see the acquisition of a franchise QB differently than you do.  If a QB prospect has a very good chance of being a franchise QB, and you need a franchise QB, then you draft him.  Considering the importance of the position picking your franchise QB 6 or 26 is pretty much meaningless.  Consider the Jets and the Steelers.  Both teams are unhappy with their drafted QB and it's not much a consultation that Pickett cost the Steelers a 20th pick and the Taylor cost the Jets a number 2.

[Ed Vette]

Ed,

You laid out your opinion in great detail and I respect and appreciate that.  I am not going to try to dissuade you from the position.  I will note a couple of key differences in our views.

1)  I don't use the term game manager.   As Bill Polian said with a chuckle, every QB needs to be a game manager.   More to the point, it's about the abilities a QB shows when they have to throw the ball and how consistently they display those abilities when they throw the ball.  If they have the traits to be successful in the NFL, I consider how often they throw the ball a minor issue at best.

And he is a good game manager as I said. He can execute and direct the Rushing Attack and when he has to throw, not make costly errors to hurt his team.


2) A couple of pages back I posted a stat comparison between Daniel Jones and JJ McCarthy, those stats show they were not remotely the same QB.

I was pretty clear that the similarities were traits, not due to stats.

3) I see the acquisition of a franchise QB differently than you do.  If a QB prospect has a very good chance of being a franchise QB, and you need a franchise QB, then you draft him.  Considering the importance of the position picking your franchise QB 6 or 26 is pretty much meaningless.  Consider the Jets and the Steelers.  Both teams are unhappy with their drafted QB and it's not much a consultation that Pickett cost the Steelers a 20th pick and the Taylor cost the Jets a number 2.

I'm unconvinced that JJ McCarthy is the next savior of the NY Giants.That mistake was made with Jones when they reached for him. At this point from what I've seen, I'm not willing to do it. It remains to be seen if there is a team or if the Giants will Draft him top ten.