JJ McCarthy (could he be the Giants target in round one)?

[Jclayton92]

In the championship game, the Wolverines basically relied on the run-game to win it (same against Ohio State).

A crucial question to consider is why? There are many good reasons, so a follow-up question is why not?

The kid was in a tough spot. Maybe he's the next Tom Brady and never had a chance to prove it on the field.

Or the next Daniel Jones & the coach knew it & thought their ONLY chance to win big games was run the ball.

Or, regardless how good he really is, the coaches firmly believed (as I do) their BEST chance to win any big game with a college team is/was to try to run the ball (the easy choice since it had worked ALL YEAR) and not pass the ball until the back end of the defense began moving closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run.

Bob

It was just the gameplan. Michigan was the only team in the Playoff without elite Wrs. While they did have two top 50 prospects at RB, and leaned on them in the Championship game. The game before however Mccarthy against Alabama, he put up more yards passing than Alabama had been giving up in total all season. When he needed to throw it he did, and when it wasn't necessary he didn't. The Penn St and Ohio St game they were without Harbaugh I believe which is why they went with the conservative play calling.

[MightyGiants]

In the championship game, the Wolverines basically relied on the run-game to win it (same against Ohio State).

A crucial question to consider is why? There are many good reasons, so a follow-up question is why not?

The kid was in a tough spot. Maybe he's the next Tom Brady and never had a chance to prove it on the field.

Or the next Daniel Jones & the coach knew it & thought their ONLY chance to win big games was run the ball.

Or, regardless how good he really is, the coaches firmly believed (as I do) their BEST chance to win any big game with a college team is/was to try to run the ball (the easy choice since it had worked ALL YEAR) and not pass the ball until the back end of the defense began moving closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run.

Bob

Bob,


If you were Harbaugh and you could both run the ball very well and pass the ball very well which would you choose up in cold and windy Michigan?  While coaches pass because more often than not it will result in more scores, most coaches would prefer to run as it's safer and it helps with time of posession.

[Jclayton92]

Bob,


If you were Harbaugh and you could both run the ball very well and pass the ball very well which would you choose up in cold and windy Michigan?  While coaches pass because more often than not it will result in more scores, most coaches would prefer to run as it's safer and it helps with time of posession.

I think a lot of it comes down to perception. I'm a diehard Ole Miss fan and Lane Kiffin is the HC. When you say his name most think about a crazy aerial attack because ole-miss is Wr University along with Ohio St but in reality we've had one of the top rushing teams in the country the past 4 years. Yes we get crazy chunk plays passing, and typically are in the top 5 in passing, but it goes through the run. I think most college offenses are that way outside a Mike leach deciple.

[MightyGiants]

I have officially boarded the JJ at six train.  It's funny because comparisons have been made to Daniel Jones. It seems like JJ has been getting a bum wrap.  It's been decades since I have witnessed the sort of negativity directed at a quarterback, as I have seen with Daniel Jones.  Only DJ is not this horrible QB.  He has good arm talent, can make some really good throws, is a major threat with his legs, and his character and work ethic are off the charts.   Yes, he does seem a bit shell-shocked, and there are questions in terms of his processing, but DJ has a far better skill set than most will acknowledge.  It's almost comical seeing fans' knee-jerk reactions of "I will stop being a fan of my FILL IN THE BLANK if they draft JJ McCarthy in round one.   It's a reaction based purely on emotion/bias rather than sound player evaluation.


Now, this is where JJ and DJ are significantly different.   JJ is a proven winner; he won in high school and college.   Being a proven winner is big, in my book.  According to Zierlein, JJ has elite processing, which is a major difference between the two and is a huge plus for JJ (in my book). 

I will acknowledge that owing to the smaller sample size, there is a bigger risk with McCarthy than one would ideally like, but when you are picking at 6, the prospect isn't going to be perfect.  I will take a little unknown than an older QB who is maxed out or a prospect with red flags/question marks.

[Bob In PA]

It was just the gameplan. Michigan was the only team in the Playoff without elite Wrs. While they did have two top 50 prospects at RB, and leaned on them in the Championship game. The game before however Mccarthy against Alabama, he put up more yards passing than Alabama had been giving up in total all season. When he needed to throw it he did, and when it wasn't necessary he didn't. The Penn St and Ohio St game they were without Harbaugh I believe which is why they went with the conservative play calling.

J: Well said. In any event, I think I agree with everything you wrote. Bob

[Gmo11]

I have officially boarded the JJ at six train.  It's funny because comparisons have been made to Daniel Jones. It seems like JJ has been getting a bum wrap.  It's been decades since I have witnessed the sort of negativity directed at a quarterback, as I have seen with Daniel Jones.  Only DJ is not this horrible QB.  He has good arm talent, can make some really good throws, is a major threat with his legs, and his character and work ethic are off the charts.   Yes, he does seem a bit shell-shocked, and there are questions in terms of his processing, but DJ has a far better skill set than most will acknowledge.  It's almost comical seeing fans' knee-jerk reactions of "I will stop being a fan of my FILL IN THE BLANK if they draft JJ McCarthy in round one.   It's a reaction based purely on emotion/bias rather than sound player evaluation.


Now, this is where JJ and DJ are significantly different.   JJ is a proven winner; he won in high school and college.   Being a proven winner is big, in my book.  According to Zierlein, JJ has elite processing, which is a major difference between the two and is a huge plus for JJ (in my book). 

I will acknowledge that owing to the smaller sample size, there is a bigger risk with McCarthy than one would ideally like, but when you are picking at 6, the prospect isn't going to be perfect.  I will take a little unknown than an older QB who is maxed out or a prospect with red flags/question marks.

I can't get there with JJ.  At least not at 6.  He might be the 4th best QB of this draft.  I could get there.  But he's got too many questions around him for me to take him over say the best edge rusher, WR or OL available.  Especially since Jones is going to be here next year no matter what.  So if my choice is JJ at 6 and whatever is left at OL/WR/LB in the 2nd round.  Or Alt or Nabers at 6 and Nix or Penix in Round 2 I think I take the latter as a matter of preference. 

And I don't think Jones has gotten a bad wrap really.  He's had 5 years to show he is capable of playing at this level.  He's shown who he is which is a mediocre QB.  He can beat the really bad defenses and struggles against the rest.  The Giants have not exactly surrounded him with the best of talent but he also hasn't looked good when he does get the time and has guys open.  He may have a nice career as a backup for the next 7-8 years but that's about it.  Which is pretty much who he was in college to be honest.  There was no excuse to take him at 6 then and it looks even worse now.

[MightyGiants]

I can't get there with JJ.  At least not at 6.  He might be the 4th best QB of this draft.  I could get there.  But he's got too many questions around him for me to take him over say the best edge rusher, WR or OL available.  Especially since Jones is going to be here next year no matter what.  So if my choice is JJ at 6 and whatever is left at OL/WR/LB in the 2nd round.  Or Alt or Nabers at 6 and Nix or Penix in Round 2 I think I take the latter as a matter of preference. 

And I don't think Jones has gotten a bad wrap really.  He's had 5 years to show he is capable of playing at this level.  He's shown who he is which is a mediocre QB.  He can beat the really bad defenses and struggles against the rest.  The Giants have not exactly surrounded him with the best of talent but he also hasn't looked good when he does get the time and has guys open.  He may have a nice career as a backup for the next 7-8 years but that's about it.  Which is pretty much who he was in college to be honest.  There was no excuse to take him at 6 then and it looks even worse now.

What are your question makers with McCarthy?


As for Daniel Jones, pop quiz:  Who has more playoff wins Daniel Jones or Justin Herbert?

[Gmo11]

What are your question makers with McCarthy?


As for Daniel Jones, pop quiz:  Who has more playoff wins Daniel Jones or Justin Herbert?

Who has more TD/Yards/ higher QBR/ passer rating....basically every metric?  If you're saying right now the Chargers would trade Herbert for Jones... I would simply say I disagree and leave it at that.

From what I've seen which is admittedly not his entire body of work yet but what I've seen so far has not jumped out to me as anything special.  What I mean is that he's solid in most areas but not exceptional in any.  He's not Jayden Daniels running the ball.  He's not Caleb Williams improvising and on the run.  He doesn't have en elite trait as far as I can tell. 

Michigan was a run first team and they found themselves in a lot of blowouts so I am aware that he has gotten far less snaps and far less opportunities to showcase his skillset late in games when it matters most.  But what I don't know is if they were a run heavy team because they wanted to be or because they had to be.  I'm not sure we'll get an honest answer to that ever.  Roman Wilson looked really good at the senior bowl so I'm not sure the WRs were the problem.  The OL was clearly good since they were running the ball so well.  So I guess my grade right now is incomplete but if that's my current grade I'm not using a top 10 pick on that. 

But I don't get to talk to the guy, I don't get to see his workouts, I don't get to sit down and break down plays with him and get to know him.  And so if a team does all of that and decide the 4th best QB is better than the 2nd WR in Nabers or the best OL in Alt or anybody else...I'll accept it. 

With Jones I was pretty certain he was going to be bad.  That pick infuriated me.  He actually looked bad at Duke.  With JJ I don't know if he's going to be good or bad so I'll gladly wait and see.  I do think Caleb Williams is going to be great.  I think Daniels is going to be great (though maybe not in year 1).  I actually am not as high on Maye as others so I don't know if I'd want him either to be honest.   

[MightyGiants]

Who has more TD/Yards/ higher QBR/ passer rating....basically every metric?  If you're saying right now the Chargers would trade Herbert for Jones... I would simply say I disagree and leave it at that.

From what I've seen which is admittedly not his entire body of work yet but what I've seen so far has not jumped out to me as anything special.  What I mean is that he's solid in most areas but not exceptional in any.  He's not Jayden Daniels running the ball.  He's not Caleb Williams improvising and on the run.  He doesn't have en elite trait as far as I can tell. 

Michigan was a run first team and they found themselves in a lot of blowouts so I am aware that he has gotten far less snaps and far less opportunities to showcase his skillset late in games when it matters most.  But what I don't know is if they were a run heavy team because they wanted to be or because they had to be.  I'm not sure we'll get an honest answer to that ever.  Roman Wilson looked really good at the senior bowl so I'm not sure the WRs were the problem.  The OL was clearly good since they were running the ball so well.  So I guess my grade right now is incomplete but if that's my current grade I'm not using a top 10 pick on that. 

But I don't get to talk to the guy, I don't get to see his workouts, I don't get to sit down and break down plays with him and get to know him.  And so if a team does all of that and decide the 4th best QB is better than the 2nd WR in Nabers or the best OL in Alt or anybody else...I'll accept it. 

With Jones I was pretty certain he was going to be bad.  That pick infuriated me.  He actually looked bad at Duke.  With JJ I don't know if he's going to be good or bad so I'll gladly wait and see.  I do think Caleb Williams is going to be great.  I think Daniels is going to be great (though maybe not in year 1).  I actually am not as high on Maye as others so I don't know if I'd want him either to be honest.   

You talked about QBR.  McCarthy had the 3rd highest QBR in all of college football last season with a 89.2. (better than Williams and Maye)

Harbaugh has strongly vouched for McCarthy's intangibles

McCarthy has the 4 highest PFF grade for offense among draft-eligible QBs beating out the elite prospects Williams and Maye.

now, for me, a metric that is important is how a QB does under pressure.  Under pressure, McCarthy had the 3rd highest PFF grades against beating out the elites Williams and Maye (by a significant margin). 

I think big-time throw percentage (Big Time Throws - a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window) is important.  In that, McCarthy is tied for 2nd overall against beating both Williams and Maye.  You say Williams is great at improvisation, but what's the point if McCarthy is better under pressure and making great throws?

Another important issue is how often the QB is responsible for his sacks.  In this case, McCarthy is the best among the top prospects in terms of causing himself to be sacked (well ahead of the elite QBs).

Finally, when you talk NLF passer rating, McCarthy is 4th (just behind Williams; they are separated by less than a point) and ahead of Maye.

McCarthy may not have one single trait he's the best at, but he has excellent arm talent, elite processing, and well-above-average athleticism, and as scouts like to say, he has the "it" factor and has been a winner his entire football life.

[uconnjack8]

It's important to consider that teams will draft a QB high based on potential ceiling, not just what people felt they saw on the field.  Its why Josh Allen was drafted as high as he was. In McCarthy's situation, its more about play calling and what the team did rather than what he did (for Allen it was accuracy).  Scouts, HCs, OCs, and GMs will all be looking for the potential and not just that the team did or didn't throw the ball as much as some would like to have seen. 

If I were a HC and my team was able to literally just run over opponents, I would just runover opponents and play good defense. 

I don't know how many fans are proficient at seeing a QBs processing speed.  I am sure some are.  Arm strength and accuracy are much more tangible in my opinion.  He seems better than fine in both those spots.

Having been coached by Harbaugh is plus in my mind (not a reason to draft him necessarily, but it doesn't hurt).   

[MightyGiants]

It's important to consider that teams will draft a QB high based on potential ceiling, not just what people felt they saw on the field.  Its why Josh Allen was drafted as high as he was. In McCarthy's situation, its more about play calling and what the team did rather than what he did (for Allen it was accuracy).  Scouts, HCs, OCs, and GMs will all be looking for the potential and not just that the team did or didn't throw the ball as much as some would like to have seen. 

If I were a HC and my team was able to literally just run over opponents, I would just runover opponents and play good defense. 

I don't know how many fans are proficient at seeing a QBs processing speed.  I am sure some are.  Arm strength and accuracy are much more tangible in my opinion.  He seems better than fine in both those spots.

Having been coached by Harbaugh is plus in my mind (not a reason to draft him necessarily, but it doesn't hurt).   

These are all excellent points, and you shouldn't forget to factor in age.   Age plays a major part in projection as studies have shown the younger a prospect is when they breakout the better they perform when they get into the NFL

[Painter]

No way, no how, can I imagine the Giants using their 6th overall on J.J. McCarthy. No matter how we may try to rationalize it, there is nothing in his background and performance to suggest any greater potential than was so with Daniel Jones when taken at 6 in 2019.

Given the uncertainty and angst that Schoen/Daboll must cope with in the wake of what now are widely viewed as questionable decisions, last year and the year before, concerning both Jones and Barkley, the last thing they are likely to do is to roll the dice with McCarthy when they have much less risky choices in which to fill more immediate needs.

If they are to take him at all it won't be until Round 2 unless they are willing to sacrifice their 3rd Rounder to move back into the late 1st.  Do I have to add IMHO?

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

No way, no how, can I imagine the Giants using their 6th overall on J.J. McCarthy. No matter how we may try to rationalize it, there is nothing in his background and performance to suggest any greater potential than was so with Daniel Jones when taken at 6 in 2019.

Given the uncertainty and angst that Schoen/Daboll must cope with in the wake of what now are widely viewed as questionable decisions, last year and the year before, concerning both Jones and Barkley, the last thing they are likely to do is to roll the dice with McCarthy when they have much less risky choices in which to fill more immediate needs.

If they are to take him at all it won't be until Round 2 unless they are willing to sacrifice their 3rd Rounder to move back into the late 1st.  Do I have to add IMHO?

Cheers!

Larry, a few thoughts:

1)  I am already seeing popular mocks with JJ going anywhere from 12 - 18.  So it's not unrealistic to think he could end up top 10

2) Not addressing an issue is but an option, and like all the other options, it comes with risk.   Daboll may not see a season 4 if Jones pulls an Aaron Rodgers and suffers another neck injury on his third play, and the season is kneecapped before it can start.

[Stringer Bell]

No way, no how, can I imagine the Giants using their 6th overall on J.J. McCarthy. No matter how we may try to rationalize it, there is nothing in his background and performance to suggest any greater potential than was so with Daniel Jones when taken at 6 in 2019.

Given the uncertainty and angst that Schoen/Daboll must cope with in the wake of what now are widely viewed as questionable decisions, last year and the year before, concerning both Jones and Barkley, the last thing they are likely to do is to roll the dice with McCarthy when they have much less risky choices in which to fill more immediate needs.

If they are to take him at all it won't be until Round 2 unless they are willing to sacrifice their 3rd Rounder to move back into the late 1st.  Do I have to add IMHO?

Cheers!

I agree with this. With all the negativity around DJ, there's no way Schoen/Daboll are going to put themselves in the position for critics to say "how could you make the same mistake twice?" (Yes, I know they didn't draft DJ)

And I also agree that taking a legit #1 WR in Nabers or a stud edge rusher (I prefer Latu over Turner) would make much more sense than taking the #4 QB in the draft who was never asked to carry his team.

With an extra 2nd-rounder, I could see them trading back into the first to grab him should he fall, but I'm of the opinion the team needs to preserve - or add - draft capital, not trade it away.

[MightyGiants]

I agree with this. With all the negativity around DJ, there's no way Schoen/Daboll are going to put themselves in the position for critics to say "how could you make the same mistake twice?" (Yes, I know they didn't draft DJ)

And I also agree that taking a legit #1 WR in Nabers or a stud edge rusher (I prefer Latu over Turner) would make much more sense than taking the #4 QB in the draft who was never asked to carry his team.

With an extra 2nd-rounder, I could see them trading back into the first to grab him should he fall, but I'm of the opinion the team needs to preserve - or add - draft capital, not trade it away.

Your comment in bold reminds me of an old NFL saying-  A GM that thinks like the fans (or does their job with an eye toward pleasing the fans) will soon join the fans.